Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Ten years ago everyone was saying self-driving cars would soon eliminate truck drivers, taxi drivers, etc. So far that hasn’t happened and fully autonomous driving seems a long way off. Likewise, I don’t see AI displacing white collar workers anytime soon. There are too many things it can’t do at all, like interviewing/deposing witnesses (for concerned lawyers), or can’t do as well as a human, and developing those capabilities could take decades.

In high school, people barely had the internet. I didn't even own a cell phone until college. Now everyone has high speed internet and it is pretty much an essential utility. 3 year olds are completely fictional with a smart phone. I can look up almost all knowledge of human history on my smart phone. All of this development happened in 20 years. Non-STEM people really cannot wrap their brains around exponential and logarithmic growth. Once the AI genie is out of the bottle it is going to learn and improve at an exponential rate. It will easily replace many white collar jobs in a matter of a few years.

NP. If you genuinely believe this, you are not remotely as intelligent as you think you are.

Anonymous wrote:Ten years ago everyone was saying self-driving cars would soon eliminate truck drivers, taxi drivers, etc. So far that hasn’t happened and fully autonomous driving seems a long way off. Likewise, I don’t see AI displacing white collar workers anytime soon. There are too many things it can’t do at all, like interviewing/deposing witnesses (for concerned lawyers), or can’t do as well as a human, and developing those capabilities could take decades.

In high school, people barely had the internet. I didn't even own a cell phone until college. Now everyone has high speed internet and it is pretty much an essential utility. 3 year olds are completely fictional with a smart phone. I can look up almost all knowledge of human history on my smart phone. All of this development happened in 20 years. Non-STEM people really cannot wrap their brains around exponential and logarithmic growth. Once the AI genie is out of the bottle it is going to learn and improve at an exponential rate. It will easily replace many white collar jobs in a matter of a few years.

Ten years ago everyone was saying self-driving cars would soon eliminate truck drivers, taxi drivers, etc. So far that hasn’t happened and fully autonomous driving seems a long way off. Likewise, I don’t see AI displacing white collar workers anytime soon. There are too many things it can’t do at all, like interviewing/deposing witnesses (for concerned lawyers), or can’t do as well as a human, and developing those capabilities could take decades.

I’m in corporate finance/accounting and I think a ton more of this work will be done by AI very soon if not already.

Ha. I was just encouraging my son to consider becoming an electrician or plumber, focusing on those trade certifications first then picking up a advanced college degrees when he’s 40.

This was after a conversation with a plumber who is hired who was telling me about his multiple properties.

AI judges would be less biased…

I’m fairly certain it won’t replace brief writing, as much as I’d like it to. Too many nuances go into it, including changing writing style when considering judge personality, other judges that your current judge respects and quoting their opinions more heavily, etc. those sorts of things are hard to integrate without substantial direction. It’ll certainly help things go faster though, thankfully.

Anonymous wrote:So an AI will write the briefs. Will we have an AI judge review them too?

Well, with DC requiring trials for basically every crime now, I wouldn't doubt at all tons of court cases will be completely automated to reduce giant backlogs at some point, because they can't hire enough human judges.

Exactly where we are headed:

So an AI will write the briefs. Will we have an AI judge review them too?

Anonymous wrote:Read something awhile ago that said the reason many of us find life so stressful now is that in previous generations at some point you developed expertise in your field and it felt relaxing cuz you could do a significant part of it daily on auto pilot. You felt competent and relaxed but now those parts of your job get automatic so you spend all day every day doing only the difficult fiddley bits of your job. All exceptions and tricks all the time. Felt about right

It was also a lot harder to prove and expert wrong in past generations. Just saying, that probably has a lot to with it. For whatever reason priests have been able to avoid this.

*you can ask chat gpt to build you a macro in word

Anonymous wrote:I dunno, but I’m a lawyer and 100% use it to get bits of my work done faster. I’ve been checking the answers carefully so far for accuracy. It’s pretty amazing. What I really want is a bot to generate the headers and format of different litigation papers, insert the parties’ names, the signature block, etc.

I think this technology is available. You could just do a macro in word. In fact, you can ask chat got to build you a macro for word to do it. I’m a policy lawyer in government and I’m pretty sure all of our investigation documents are formatted this way.

Anonymous wrote:As a lawyer who hates writing briefs, I really effing doubt AI can do it. It’s much harder, at least at a high level, than non lawyers get. Truly, I wish AI could replace it. But it can’t.

You woefully underestimate the power of exponential growth and improvement.

It's going to be making far less mistakes in a year from now and a lot less in 5 years.

Take a look at midjourney. That art was pretty bad a year ago and now it's doing nearly photorealistic images, that didn't take long at all. Law is going to completely upended and once companies realize they can spend 99% less costs on legal work by using AI that produces quality work that is sufficient enough they will do it.

Anonymous wrote:Read something awhile ago that said the reason many of us find life so stressful now is that in previous generations at some point you developed expertise in your field and it felt relaxing cuz you could do a significant part of it daily on auto pilot. You felt competent and relaxed but now those parts of your job get automatic so you spend all day every day doing only the difficult fiddley bits of your job. All exceptions and tricks all the time. Felt about right

This is very true! I was in some white collar job with a consulting company, there are 15% of times where I get to work on something intense and new and about 85% is boring tick and tie. Over the last decade with proper software now my 8 hr is completely focused on the trouble shoot / intense 15% hours and management thinks my productivity went down 😂

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I dunno, but I’m a lawyer and 100% use it to get bits of my work done faster. I’ve been checking the answers carefully so far for accuracy. It’s pretty amazing. What I really want is a bot to generate the headers and format of different litigation papers, insert the parties’ names, the signature block, etc.

+1

This. Computer work and lawyering will be the first to go.

You have a very narrow definition of lawyering. Truly, this won’t meaningfully reduce the need for biglaw tier legal work in my lifetime.