I was curious about signs of a decline in home values in my neighborhood, which is Westmoreland Hills in Bethesda.

There's currently only one house on the market, at $9M which is very high for this area.

Of the 7 other houses to sell since September, it looks like two houses changed hands without being listed at all. Four went at or above list price. One was 2% below list price.

All but one of those listed went under contract within 3 days. The other one took 10 days.

I guess since nothing is on the market now (other than the big $9M house), I can't really know for sure what the market is like for our neighborhood. But I'm reassured anyway.

Anonymous wrote:The headline is more alarming than the content. Most of the people surveyed say a 10-20% drop in housing prices. I would say we’ve already seen about a 10% drop in prices in the DMV, uneven across areas but if you look at all the price cuts prices even in desirable areas seem to me to be about 10% lower than they were say six months ago.

This, and for people who bought before 2019, this will basically only wipe out the steep increase in prices over the last couple years but will not touch the equity they built before that. Meaning you can still sell a house for a profit after owning it for 5-7 years at a minimum. The housing market can never sustain steep price increases for long.

The only people who should be freaking out right now are people who bought within the last two years and want or have to sell in the immediate future -- they may take a bath. Also, people who have been waiting for prices to return to 2010-2011 levels are in for a rude awakening -- even with rate increases, that is unlikely to happen because of inventory. Unlike in 2008/2009, this housing "crash" is not fueled by overbuilding housing stock in hot markets (back then, it was places like Las Vegas and Florida, where developers built thousands of new houses knowing they could sell them to people for little to no money down). We also aren't seeing rippling economic effects leading to mass layoffs. A slowdown in hiring, yes, and some targeted layoffs in some industries, but not the domino effect of the last time.

I really tend to think this is a needed market adjustment that will benefit most homeowners in the long run by rewarding longterm home ownership.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We're looking (not urgent) and inventory is...fine really. Up from last year really. Prices are falling a bit. But they need to fall more to make up for the increase in payments were looking at due to rate increases (almost $1,500 a month on the ~1ms were looking at!).

We're hoping we find something in the spring and are not stressed about it.

Says the person with an inherited DP and/or 1.3+ M budget.

Yeah. We’re 40 and 45 and have never owned a home. We have managed to save about $700k in the past 5 years after having a tough start, and so sure, we can afford a 1m house. On our own. I have inherited nothing, thankfully!

Anonymous wrote:Prices aren’t going to free fall in any of the W clusters.

This is such unadulterated bullshit. There’s a bubble alright, but not a housing one. There’s the only that DCUM lives in, thinking that the whole world has kids and cares about local public schools.

Anonymous wrote:The headline is more alarming than the content. Most of the people surveyed say a 10-20% drop in housing prices. I would say we’ve already seen about a 10% drop in prices in the DMV, uneven across areas but if you look at all the price cuts prices even in desirable areas seem to me to be about 10% lower than they were say six months ago.

This. Click the link and read the story people.

The storm has already started. Everybody can feel it despite the Bitcoin style cheerleading and suspension of reality on the financial networks. The GOP is lucky they didn’t win the senate because Biden and the Democrats are picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.

The headline is more alarming than the content. Most of the people surveyed say a 10-20% drop in housing prices. I would say we’ve already seen about a 10% drop in prices in the DMV, uneven across areas but if you look at all the price cuts prices even in desirable areas seem to me to be about 10% lower than they were say six months ago.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I just don’t get how prices will fall when supply is so low.

The demand has absolutely slowed down. People are losing their jobs especially tech. Along with being a Fed hub, DC is also a tech hub. And those who haven't lost their jobs aren't making any large purchases right now especially at 7% rates.

Where we are looking demand is still bigger than supply. But maybe that will change.

Anonymous wrote:In Arlington there are some unfortunate houses with weird lots of layouts or aesthetics that are selling less quickly, but anything nice sells in a heartbeat. There's just not excess inventory of nice houses on nice lots. I don't expect that to change.

I'm in N Arlington, and there is a house in my neighborhood that's not selling. The asking price is too high, IMO, and the lot is small, but otherwise, it checks all the boxes - close enough to public transportation without being on a major artery, desirable schools, turn-key, beautifully landscaped. It's only been 3-4 weeks, but 3-4 months ago, it would have been snapped up.

The opposite of whatever the experts predict is probably what will happen.

In Arlington there are some unfortunate houses with weird lots of layouts or aesthetics that are selling less quickly, but anything nice sells in a heartbeat. There's just not excess inventory of nice houses on nice lots. I don't expect that to change.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I just don’t get how prices will fall when supply is so low.

They won’t. They should but they won’t. It’s a death spiral for anyone who didn’t buy before 2022.

A death spiral? I mean, don't you think that's a little dramatic? People will move into previously less desirable neighborhoods but they will still have houses. Many less expensive neighborhoods still exist in the DC region. It's just a matter of adjusting your expectations / sense of entitlement.

Anonymous wrote:I just don’t get how prices will fall when supply is so low.

The demand has absolutely slowed down. People are losing their jobs especially tech. Along with being a Fed hub, DC is also a tech hub. And those who haven't lost their jobs aren't making any large purchases right now especially at 7% rates.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Prices aren’t going to free fall in any of the W clusters.

Oh people are smart enough to realize these districts are overcrowded and overrated

This is a good observation, but it really applies to the entire DMV. The reason that prices didn't increase as dramatically in the DMV during covid as elsewhere in the country is because the DMV is just not that desirable. And that's also the reason that the DMV, including close in areas, will not be immune when the bubble bursts.

DC has some of the highest home prices in the nation. PP, How do you define “not desirable”.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Nope. No inventory.

Really? I am seeing lots of inventory in the inside-the-beltway surburbs in Moco, Arlington, and Fairfax. It's just that sellers still are pricing like it's the spring.

This. There is inventory to go around. Perhaps not want one wants, but it’s homes out there and folks are buying sporadically in my DC proper target neighborhood of 20017.