https://deadline.com/2022/08/new-covid-variant-ba-4-6-u-s-midwest-1235103594/
Right now the U.S. seems to be typing mostly the BA.5 variant. However, the question is whether BA.2.75 (L452R) and BA.4.6 will spike. In other words, there could be up to three possible spikes this year (similar to what we saw in January). There are also two more to watch for: BA.4.7, and BA.5.9.
The variable mitigation factors are the same as last year. They are (a) to the extent that parents encourage their children to mask, (b) the extent that MCPS protect the children by detecting infection cases early and quarrantines, (c) the number of children who received both the original covid shots as well as the new bivalent booster, (d) good weather and the number of kids eating outdoors regularly, (e) the measures undertaken by schools to sanitize and clean classrooms, and (f) the level of air filtration within the rooms themselves.
Reading some of the irresponsible comments here, I'm doubtful we will be able to avoid all three spikes and leaning more to seeing all three spikes occur (one or two might be smaller ones, hopefully). My guess is by November, Jan and Feb?
If you want to keep your children unmasked, I'd hold off on making any vacation plans - summer school is required when missing more than 10 days of school.