Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:All these waiting buyers will find themselves in bidding wars once the market heats up again at even higher price range.

When do you think this will happen? Not being snarky. But realizing that there are no guarantees, when does everyone *think* this will happen? I am asking because we need to sell. We are building in another state. The house won't be ready until Feb 2023. My husband wants to sell now and then rent in the new location for a few months. I prefer to stay in our current house, and sell early in spring 2023. I am not sure what is better for us as sellers. We are in a popular location in Loudoun Co.

NP. I think this will happen because we still have the same problem that we've had and had been getting worse in the last 40 years. The population of the region is increasing significantly faster than the housing stock is increasing. Everyone wants the same things. They want locations close to work, they want safe neighborhoods and good schools. And salaries in the area are rising. 10 years ago, the top 1% was about $300K annual HHI. Now the top 1% annual HHI is about $550-600K, almost double. The number of people who make over $300K annually is now about the top 3-5% whereas it used to be the top 1%. There are more and more people who have a greater amount of money to put down and who can afford larger and larger mortgage payments.

The majority of the most desirable areas, southern Montgomery County, NWDC, McLean, Fairfax County, N Arlington County are pretty much maxed out with homes. There is no place to build new homes. So you end up with many people buying older smaller homes and doing teardowns. Or people have to compete for the same properties. Or they have to move further out. But there is a more money and more people competing for the same inventory. That's not going to change in a year or two years. In fact, since the population continues to grow and people get raises, the problem is going to get worse because there will continue to be more and more people with the income to compete in the same areas. And still, no new housing stock.

You can argue what you want, but the basic laws of supply and demand mean that the demand continues to rise, but the supply remains close to stagnant. As the saying goes, you do the math.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We are currently under contract. Managed to lock in a decent rate last week (4.25 no points on a jumbo). Nervous about listing our house next month but it is in a really desirable neighborhood.

4.25 no points on a jumbo = great great deal historically. LAST 2 YEARS WERE AN ANOMOLY.

2022 is an anomaly. Rates are going to 0 in the long run as population growth vanishes around the world.

Not around the world.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We liv in falls church, the market is still hot, hot, hot with bidding wars.

OK agent. Nice one. I also live in FCC and homes that would have been snatched in a day are sitting on the market for weeks in several cases.

Not an agent, also live in Falls Church ( not Falls Church City) and the most recent house in our neighborhood for sale last Saturday was under contract in 4-5 days.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We are currently under contract. Managed to lock in a decent rate last week (4.25 no points on a jumbo). Nervous about listing our house next month but it is in a really desirable neighborhood.

4.25 no points on a jumbo = great great deal historically. LAST 2 YEARS WERE AN ANOMOLY.

2022 is an anomaly. Rates are going to 0 in the long run as population growth vanishes around the world.

Why do you think that? Shrinking labor supply worldwide will push wages up, and as more of the world moves to middle class they will all be competing for same products and inflation will likely remain a problem.

Now Japan has had a zero population growth, and zero rates forever, but that’s because they could buy a lot of goods from places with cheap labor. A worldwide Japan is a different problem.

Anonymous wrote:They just want a better price and an inspection? Or they are just not buying at all now? We listed yesterday and I’m very nervous.

Op I already answered previously. Are you in touch with your realtor with how many showings and such? Or are you asking because your house hasn't gotten much interest so far? When we sold last year, we got a text message everytime someone scheduled a showing so we were pretty aware of what was happening even though we were out of town.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We are currently under contract. Managed to lock in a decent rate last week (4.25 no points on a jumbo). Nervous about listing our house next month but it is in a really desirable neighborhood.

4.25 no points on a jumbo = great great deal historically. LAST 2 YEARS WERE AN ANOMOLY.

2022 is an anomaly. Rates are going to 0 in the long run as population growth vanishes around the world.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Went to 8 open houses last weekend in Arlington. All SFHs. It was dead at all but one of them (that one is pending; the others are all still for sale). Seems like buyers have vanished. I am taking a pause for a few months because prices are still at their peak, and rates are higher than anytime in recent history.

and the Fed will raise rates again next month.

Why would that affect the 10-yr, especially as we head into a recession? Mortgages rates are more likely to drop than rise from here.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We are putting off our purchase for at least six months (could wait up to 2ish years) unless the perfect house comes up at a fair price. We rent now - great home, excellent N Arlington neighborhood, our landlord is not raising our (very below marker) rent and is giving us lots of flexibility in our lease so we can still casually look. But our thinking is “why buy now with both high prices and significantly higher rates?” People I know either found something in the last 18 months or are stepping back, like us. We are looking in close-in VA around $1M.

Has there been much interest in your home? It seems like the market has cooled tremendously in just the last month.

We are in the same boat.

Same here too. I’m using 2020 prices as guidance. We’ll pay that. No higher. No longer bidding where we were earlier this year. Feels like time now on our side and we shouldn’t pull the trigger unless we are getting a truly good deal.

Good luck with that. Yes, it's slowing and yes prices are stablizing and appreciation is normalizing. Prices going back to what they were 2 years ago?? Not going to happen, but keep waiting and spending $30K, $40K, or $50K a year in rent..... that makes so much more sense

I really hope the PP was joking. But my fear like you pointed out is continuing to pay rent ($3k a month).

Some are buying, some are waiting. Everyone's risk tolerance is different.

Anonymous wrote:We are putting off our purchase for at least six months (could wait up to 2ish years) unless the perfect house comes up at a fair price. We rent now - great home, excellent N Arlington neighborhood, our landlord is not raising our (very below marker) rent and is giving us lots of flexibility in our lease so we can still casually look. But our thinking is “why buy now with both high prices and significantly higher rates?” People I know either found something in the last 18 months or are stepping back, like us. We are looking in close-in VA around $1M.

Has there been much interest in your home? It seems like the market has cooled tremendously in just the last month.

We are in the exact same boat. Happy to pay a fair price but waited out the nuttiness for a reason.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We are putting off our purchase for at least six months (could wait up to 2ish years) unless the perfect house comes up at a fair price. We rent now - great home, excellent N Arlington neighborhood, our landlord is not raising our (very below marker) rent and is giving us lots of flexibility in our lease so we can still casually look. But our thinking is “why buy now with both high prices and significantly higher rates?” People I know either found something in the last 18 months or are stepping back, like us. We are looking in close-in VA around $1M.

Has there been much interest in your home? It seems like the market has cooled tremendously in just the last month.

We are in the same boat.

Same here too. I’m using 2020 prices as guidance. We’ll pay that. No higher. No longer bidding where we were earlier this year. Feels like time now on our side and we shouldn’t pull the trigger unless we are getting a truly good deal.

Good luck with that. Yes, it's slowing and yes prices are stablizing and appreciation is normalizing. Prices going back to what they were 2 years ago?? Not going to happen, but keep waiting and spending $30K, $40K, or $50K a year in rent..... that makes so much more sense

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We are putting off our purchase for at least six months (could wait up to 2ish years) unless the perfect house comes up at a fair price. We rent now - great home, excellent N Arlington neighborhood, our landlord is not raising our (very below marker) rent and is giving us lots of flexibility in our lease so we can still casually look. But our thinking is “why buy now with both high prices and significantly higher rates?” People I know either found something in the last 18 months or are stepping back, like us. We are looking in close-in VA around $1M.

Has there been much interest in your home? It seems like the market has cooled tremendously in just the last month.

We are in the same boat.

Same here too. I’m using 2020 prices as guidance. We’ll pay that. No higher. No longer bidding where we were earlier this year. Feels like time now on our side and we shouldn’t pull the trigger unless we are getting a truly good deal.

Anonymous wrote:We liv in falls church, the market is still hot, hot, hot with bidding wars.

OK agent. Nice one. I also live in FCC and homes that would have been snatched in a day are sitting on the market for weeks in several cases.

We sold earlier this month and currently rent. With a flexible lease, we're (I'm) hoping a home that's been listed since August 2021 with several price reductions go even further down in price. SO we will hold tight until we snag a "deal".

You're late, OP. Best you can hope for are buyers who want to lock in a rate before it goes up another three quarter point in July. Or possibly, cash buyers who are circling around after the spring rush. However, it's better you sell now than later, when it will get even worse.

I'm waiting for next spring, when prices will perhaps fall a little, interest rates will be sky high, and I will have time to pick and choose and pay cash.