Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I just think this has to slow. I’ve been a RE agent since 2008. In all of those years, my buyers found houses. Even in red hot markets, we’d compete against 1-2 offers, with the contract price being full price, and maybe 20k above in a bidding war. I’ve NEVER heard of 20+ offers on marginally livable homes, escalating 100-400k over asking and blatantly accepting that they will be 100k plus under appraisal. How can this continue?

I haven't seen one person claim it can (although I am sure they are out there).

The question is will it slow, stagnate or recede? That's what no one knows, and those that claim they do know have not shown convincing work.

This. Slowing down, ams stagnation, aren’t the same as a price drop.

I don't think prices ever drop unless there is enough economic upheaval to force a large group of homeowners to sell who otherwise wouldn't choose to take a loss

But prices can go down from their current value, and a LOTof homeowners would still not have to take a loss. A lot of people bought prior to 2021 - they could still make a profit with prices going down even 10-15%. It's the people who bought in the last year who would have to take a loss.

'

You'd think so, but it doesn't work that way. The only times that prices go down (not just stagnate or grow more slowly, but go down) is when there is an economic situation that forces people to sell

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I just think this has to slow. I’ve been a RE agent since 2008. In all of those years, my buyers found houses. Even in red hot markets, we’d compete against 1-2 offers, with the contract price being full price, and maybe 20k above in a bidding war. I’ve NEVER heard of 20+ offers on marginally livable homes, escalating 100-400k over asking and blatantly accepting that they will be 100k plus under appraisal. How can this continue?

I haven't seen one person claim it can (although I am sure they are out there).

The question is will it slow, stagnate or recede? That's what no one knows, and those that claim they do know have not shown convincing work.

This. Slowing down, ams stagnation, aren’t the same as a price drop.

I don't think prices ever drop unless there is enough economic upheaval to force a large group of homeowners to sell who otherwise wouldn't choose to take a loss

But prices can go down from their current value, and a LOTof homeowners would still not have to take a loss. A lot of people bought prior to 2021 - they could still make a profit with prices going down even 10-15%. It's the people who bought in the last year who would have to take a loss.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I just think this has to slow. I’ve been a RE agent since 2008. In all of those years, my buyers found houses. Even in red hot markets, we’d compete against 1-2 offers, with the contract price being full price, and maybe 20k above in a bidding war. I’ve NEVER heard of 20+ offers on marginally livable homes, escalating 100-400k over asking and blatantly accepting that they will be 100k plus under appraisal. How can this continue?

I haven't seen one person claim it can (although I am sure they are out there).

The question is will it slow, stagnate or recede? That's what no one knows, and those that claim they do know have not shown convincing work.

This. Slowing down, ams stagnation, aren’t the same as a price drop.

I don't think prices ever drop unless there is enough economic upheaval to force a large group of homeowners to sell who otherwise wouldn't choose to take a loss

Yes they will drop. Market unsustainable.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I just think this has to slow. I’ve been a RE agent since 2008. In all of those years, my buyers found houses. Even in red hot markets, we’d compete against 1-2 offers, with the contract price being full price, and maybe 20k above in a bidding war. I’ve NEVER heard of 20+ offers on marginally livable homes, escalating 100-400k over asking and blatantly accepting that they will be 100k plus under appraisal. How can this continue?

I haven't seen one person claim it can (although I am sure they are out there).

The question is will it slow, stagnate or recede? That's what no one knows, and those that claim they do know have not shown convincing work.

This. Slowing down, ams stagnation, aren’t the same as a price drop.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Potential buyers waiting for prices to fall due to rising interest rates do not factor that Institutional investors bought 18.4 percent of all homes sold in the fourth quarter, an increase from the 12.6 percent they picked up during the same time last year and 17.4 percent in the third quarter of 2021, according to Redfin. That’s the largest share since Redfin started keeping track in 2000.

Institutional investors purchasing with cash are not as sensitive to rising interest rates as are individuals purchasing a single home.

The real estate market will not crash. The rate of appreciation will likely slow, perhaps at a 10-12% rate than the 18-20% increase in 2021. But waiting for the $1.6 million Bethesda home dropping to $800k simply isn't happening.

I'm not sure anyone is saying they are waiting for that kind of drop. But historically house prices rise and fall - it won't rise forever.

I mean, there was definitely a person on here last week who claimed repeatedly that prices would drop to 2019 levels or below within 6 weeks, so it's not that far off. Give it 48 hours and one of them will start another thread with a slight variation on the title of this thread but the same proposition. They like new threads; the old ones get clogged up with logic and evidence.

Anonymous wrote:Potential buyers waiting for prices to fall due to rising interest rates do not factor that Institutional investors bought 18.4 percent of all homes sold in the fourth quarter, an increase from the 12.6 percent they picked up during the same time last year and 17.4 percent in the third quarter of 2021, according to Redfin. That’s the largest share since Redfin started keeping track in 2000.

Institutional investors purchasing with cash are not as sensitive to rising interest rates as are individuals purchasing a single home.

The real estate market will not crash. The rate of appreciation will likely slow, perhaps at a 10-12% rate than the 18-20% increase in 2021. But waiting for the $1.6 million Bethesda home dropping to $800k simply isn't happening.

I'm not sure anyone is saying they are waiting for that kind of drop. But historically house prices rise and fall - it won't rise forever.

Potential buyers waiting for prices to fall due to rising interest rates do not factor that Institutional investors bought 18.4 percent of all homes sold in the fourth quarter, an increase from the 12.6 percent they picked up during the same time last year and 17.4 percent in the third quarter of 2021, according to Redfin. That’s the largest share since Redfin started keeping track in 2000.

Institutional investors purchasing with cash are not as sensitive to rising interest rates as are individuals purchasing a single home.

The real estate market will not crash. The rate of appreciation will likely slow, perhaps at a 10-12% rate than the 18-20% increase in 2021. But waiting for the $1.6 million Bethesda home dropping to $800k simply isn't happening.

Anonymous wrote:I just think this has to slow. I’ve been a RE agent since 2008. In all of those years, my buyers found houses. Even in red hot markets, we’d compete against 1-2 offers, with the contract price being full price, and maybe 20k above in a bidding war. I’ve NEVER heard of 20+ offers on marginally livable homes, escalating 100-400k over asking and blatantly accepting that they will be 100k plus under appraisal. How can this continue?

I haven't seen one person claim it can (although I am sure they are out there).

The question is will it slow, stagnate or recede? That's what no one knows, and those that claim they do know have not shown convincing work.

Anonymous wrote:I just think this has to slow. I’ve been a RE agent since 2008. In all of those years, my buyers found houses. Even in red hot markets, we’d compete against 1-2 offers, with the contract price being full price, and maybe 20k above in a bidding war. I’ve NEVER heard of 20+ offers on marginally livable homes, escalating 100-400k over asking and blatantly accepting that they will be 100k plus under appraisal. How can this continue?

Exactly. You've been a real estate agent since 2008. This was all very common, even worse in the early 2000s. And prior high appreciation periods before that.

Anonymous wrote:I just think this has to slow. I’ve been a RE agent since 2008. In all of those years, my buyers found houses. Even in red hot markets, we’d compete against 1-2 offers, with the contract price being full price, and maybe 20k above in a bidding war. I’ve NEVER heard of 20+ offers on marginally livable homes, escalating 100-400k over asking and blatantly accepting that they will be 100k plus under appraisal. How can this continue?

Agree - this isn't sustainable.

I just think this has to slow. I’ve been a RE agent since 2008. In all of those years, my buyers found houses. Even in red hot markets, we’d compete against 1-2 offers, with the contract price being full price, and maybe 20k above in a bidding war. I’ve NEVER heard of 20+ offers on marginally livable homes, escalating 100-400k over asking and blatantly accepting that they will be 100k plus under appraisal. How can this continue?

Anonymous wrote:The housing prince can dance all night - he'll never drop! But he'll cheat on the housing princess in a heartbeat.

Maybe in Lake Minnetoka?

Anonymous wrote:If they do, it won’t be a significant drop.

This. Although some areas could see bigger drops but it will be localized.

NAR will not allow you to even discuss the prince's fall, but all princes fall even in NARnia.