Anonymous wrote:High stats kids are getting waitlisted from VT and UVA, OP. Probably W&M, too. Results just aren’t out yet.

FIFY. They’ll get in if they stay on the waitlist.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What is missing from these posts is that there was significant grade inflation for the class of 2022 with their junior year online. Junior year is where the rubber meets the road and kids can do well in 5-6 APs or they don't. If everyone did well there is nothing to distinguish someone who got a 4.0 because of online and cheating vs. hard work and intelligence. Now put all these kids with similar GPAs together, with or without tests, and the highest applicant numbers in history and this is what happens. I hope it works itself out for next year!

YES!

I don't even have a dog in this fight but am a teacher. Let's say in a normal year 10% of kids got straight As. Last year it was like 70% at our school. We were told to be super lenient. The district I teach in (DCPS) did not even give out grades lower than a B. So kids who did the work (in any way, shape or form) got As. The rest (who did nothing) got Bs.
Extrapolate this to an entire district of kids and you have a lot of A students. Thousands.

Covid is going to affect college applications for a few years - maybe five or more. Parents don't want to accept that. There were many deferrals from classes of 20 and 21.

Also, the US is becoming like other well populated countries - there are fewer and fewer spots. Period.

Anonymous wrote:Just want to say that the original post is categorically untrue, as anyone who works in college counseling will tell you

Rationality and predictability are gone. ED at a match school is the only way to have a shot at predictable outcomes. And no school in the Top 15-20 is a match for anyone at this point - they’re all reaches

+1

Aim lower. Too many top of the top kids aiming at the highest schools.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Have friends with children at Big 3, FCPS and MCPS.

High GPA kids and/or high test kids all did great. Looks the same as 5, 10 and 15 years ago.

More unqualified kids applying are making the acceptance rates plummet. But the kids with the goods are doing as well as ever.

Sorry to burst your bubble.

As an immigrant, this entire school system was very foreign to me. So I decided to track from DC HS freshman year where kids in her adv. academic program (not NOVA) got in, in order to provide me an idea of how to guide DC (no, we can not afford a college counselor). Yes, her program always presents a slide show which shows where everybody is going to.

For graduates 2019 - 2021 (just around 100 graduates each year), the following committed for UVA (consistently 15), W&M (4/5), VT (12/15), JMU (now there was a shift downward from around 12 to 3), VCU (8, +/- 1). The top 5% make it in the end consistently into T10 schools. The top 10% make into T20.

Covid has not changed that and the kids performances (GPA, SAT/ACT, and EC are pretty consistently at the same level across the different classes. From the kid with 12 DE to the kid with "just" 6AP).

15% go to uva? What public school only has a class of 100? What are the schools for top 5%?


I find this very hard to believe. I know kids from elite boarding schools with double ivy degree parents who were shut out. I know kids from top publics around the country with ivy legacy shut out. The top 5% of our public did not make it in to top 10 schools.

I’m pp and just read the UVA thread. Now I’m really calling BS on this - 15% were not accepted to UVA.

For God's sake, read the post you're so aggrieved about. PP specifically said she was talking about kids in a school not in NOVA, and within that school specifically the subset of kids specifically in the AAP program. Just accept that you've screwed your kids by making them ticky-tacky cutouts who look identical to every other kid in your exclusive DC suburb with its GS9 rating. Yeah, UVA does already have a surfeit of those, sorry.

And no it’s not just “kids with a bad essay” etc who are not getting in. We know kids who got in SCEA to top 15 private who were rejected at places like UVA. I’m not saying this is some huge injustice— no one has a “right” to get in anywhere and these kids all do fine— but there is a lot of randomness. Anyone who assumes that the high stats kids not getting in to top publics had some unknown application flaw are just being cruel.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Have friends with children at Big 3, FCPS and MCPS.

High GPA kids and/or high test kids all did great. Looks the same as 5, 10 and 15 years ago.

More unqualified kids applying are making the acceptance rates plummet. But the kids with the goods are doing as well as ever.

Sorry to burst your bubble.

As an immigrant, this entire school system was very foreign to me. So I decided to track from DC HS freshman year where kids in her adv. academic program (not NOVA) got in, in order to provide me an idea of how to guide DC (no, we can not afford a college counselor). Yes, her program always presents a slide show which shows where everybody is going to.

For graduates 2019 - 2021 (just around 100 graduates each year), the following committed for UVA (consistently 15), W&M (4/5), VT (12/15), JMU (now there was a shift downward from around 12 to 3), VCU (8, +/- 1). The top 5% make it in the end consistently into T10 schools. The top 10% make into T20.

Covid has not changed that and the kids performances (GPA, SAT/ACT, and EC are pretty consistently at the same level across the different classes. From the kid with 12 DE to the kid with "just" 6AP).

15% go to uva? What public school only has a class of 100? What are the schools for top 5%?


I find this very hard to believe. I know kids from elite boarding schools with double ivy degree parents who were shut out. I know kids from top publics around the country with ivy legacy shut out. The top 5% of our public did not make it in to top 10 schools.

I’m pp and just read the UVA thread. Now I’m really calling BS on this - 15% were not accepted to UVA.

It’s probably a little harder on the margin but in general it’s all cope from moms.

Anonymous wrote:What is missing from these posts is that there was significant grade inflation for the class of 2022 with their junior year online. Junior year is where the rubber meets the road and kids can do well in 5-6 APs or they don't. If everyone did well there is nothing to distinguish someone who got a 4.0 because of online and cheating vs. hard work and intelligence. Now put all these kids with similar GPAs together, with or without tests, and the highest applicant numbers in history and this is what happens. I hope it works itself out for next year!

YES!

I don't even have a dog in this fight but am a teacher. Let's say in a normal year 10% of kids got straight As. Last year it was like 70% at our school. We were told to be super lenient. The district I teach in (DCPS) did not even give out grades lower than a B. So kids who did the work (in any way, shape or form) got As. The rest (who did nothing) got Bs.
Extrapolate this to an entire district of kids and you have a lot of A students. Thousands.

What is missing from these posts is that there was significant grade inflation for the class of 2022 with their junior year online. Junior year is where the rubber meets the road and kids can do well in 5-6 APs or they don't. If everyone did well there is nothing to distinguish someone who got a 4.0 because of online and cheating vs. hard work and intelligence. Now put all these kids with similar GPAs together, with or without tests, and the highest applicant numbers in history and this is what happens. I hope it works itself out for next year!

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Have friends with children at Big 3, FCPS and MCPS.

High GPA kids and/or high test kids all did great. Looks the same as 5, 10 and 15 years ago.

More unqualified kids applying are making the acceptance rates plummet. But the kids with the goods are doing as well as ever.

Sorry to burst your bubble.

As an immigrant, this entire school system was very foreign to me. So I decided to track from DC HS freshman year where kids in her adv. academic program (not NOVA) got in, in order to provide me an idea of how to guide DC (no, we can not afford a college counselor). Yes, her program always presents a slide show which shows where everybody is going to.

For graduates 2019 - 2021 (just around 100 graduates each year), the following committed for UVA (consistently 15), W&M (4/5), VT (12/15), JMU (now there was a shift downward from around 12 to 3), VCU (8, +/- 1). The top 5% make it in the end consistently into T10 schools. The top 10% make into T20.

Covid has not changed that and the kids performances (GPA, SAT/ACT, and EC are pretty consistently at the same level across the different classes. From the kid with 12 DE to the kid with "just" 6AP).

15% go to uva? What public school only has a class of 100? What are the schools for top 5%?


I find this very hard to believe. I know kids from elite boarding schools with double ivy degree parents who were shut out. I know kids from top publics around the country with ivy legacy shut out. The top 5% of our public did not make it in to top 10 schools.

Observation from parent of a 2020 high school grad (so not impacted byCovid.) parents of kids in high-performing districts have been using the term “bloodbath“ for at least as long as I have been reading parenting boards around this time of year, it always happens when kids they perceive as strong candidates don’t get it. That is not new, Every year seems to feel like the worst year for admissions in certain circles.. What is clearly different though terms of the process is that with test optional the numbers at many colleges have dramatically increased, colleges are all telling this when they report out on admissions data. And of course the other thing to his shoes with Covid is a high-performance kids have lost so many opportunities to distinguish themselves through ECs what do “great ECs” mean in this environment? Nobody really knows. I do believe the process feels much more challenging/random.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Have friends with children at Big 3, FCPS and MCPS.

High GPA kids and/or high test kids all did great. Looks the same as 5, 10 and 15 years ago.

More unqualified kids applying are making the acceptance rates plummet. But the kids with the goods are doing as well as ever.

Sorry to burst your bubble.

As an immigrant, this entire school system was very foreign to me. So I decided to track from DC HS freshman year where kids in her adv. academic program (not NOVA) got in, in order to provide me an idea of how to guide DC (no, we can not afford a college counselor). Yes, her program always presents a slide show which shows where everybody is going to.

For graduates 2019 - 2021 (just around 100 graduates each year), the following committed for UVA (consistently 15), W&M (4/5), VT (12/15), JMU (now there was a shift downward from around 12 to 3), VCU (8, +/- 1). The top 5% make it in the end consistently into T10 schools. The top 10% make into T20.

Covid has not changed that and the kids performances (GPA, SAT/ACT, and EC are pretty consistently at the same level across the different classes. From the kid with 12 DE to the kid with "just" 6AP).

The past few years are not good for predicting what will happen in the future, Covid changed admissions siginificantly.

Anonymous wrote:Have friends with children at Big 3, FCPS and MCPS.

High GPA kids and/or high test kids all did great. Looks the same as 5, 10 and 15 years ago.

More unqualified kids applying are making the acceptance rates plummet. But the kids with the goods are doing as well as ever.

Sorry to burst your bubble.

As an immigrant, this entire school system was very foreign to me. So I decided to track from DC HS freshman year where kids in her adv. academic program (not NOVA) got in, in order to provide me an idea of how to guide DC (no, we can not afford a college counselor). Yes, her program always presents a slide show which shows where everybody is going to.

For graduates 2019 - 2021 (just around 100 graduates each year), the following committed for UVA (consistently 15), W&M (4/5), VT (12/15), JMU (now there was a shift downward from around 12 to 3), VCU (8, +/- 1). The top 5% make it in the end consistently into T10 schools. The top 10% make into T20.

Covid has not changed that and the kids performances (GPA, SAT/ACT, and EC are pretty consistently at the same level across the different classes. From the kid with 12 DE to the kid with "just" 6AP).

Anonymous wrote:Both things can be true. It can be true that for the most part high-stats kids are landing at top-tier schools, just as they did before, and also true that 15 years ago such kids applied to 6 schools and were admitted to 4, whereas this year they applied to 12 and are lucky to be admitted to 1. It may all look the same to their parents’ friends, but the process today is far more grueling.

Mathematically, they cannot both be true. It is literally impossible. As the article cited above states, the Ivies plus Stanford, Duke MIT and CalTech had 15,800 US high school graduates 20 years ago and have 16,300 today. The number of US graduates has gone from 2.8 million to 3.6 million. So these 12 schools used to have enough seats for 56% of the top 1% of US students, and now they have enough seats for 45% of the top 1%. It is more difficult even for those with ridiculously high numbers.

Anonymous wrote:Have friends with children at Big 3, FCPS and MCPS.

High GPA kids and/or high test kids all did great. Looks the same as 5, 10 and 15 years ago.

More unqualified kids applying are making the acceptance rates plummet. But the kids with the goods are doing as well as ever.

Sorry to burst your bubble.

Not nearly the same. Schools are getting double the apps from 5 years ago. Many kids are qualified in different ways. Don't try to make this something it isn't, Pot Stirrer.