Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I would expect the dropout % to increase merely because of the increased logistics and life complexities required for a student who has less support at home.

This. And because there are kids who were offered a chance to try something they had not been exposed to before. Some are going to be overwhelmed and will return to what is more comfortable. Others will put in the work and do fine. Some will thrive and grow in ways we never would have predicted.

OP again.

These two posts are 1) speculation, and 2) plausible, in my opinion (ie - I am agreeing with you in theory; they are reasonable possibilities. But it’s still just theoretical).

However, the dropout data as of today appears mostly statistically indistinguishable from prior years - thus weighing against the possibilities raised.

If and only if the February numbers (available in March) are significantly higher than historical withdrawal numbers, can we begin to speculate on a cause or causes.

Anonymous wrote:Maybe this was what PP was trying to share but the FCPS monthly membership reports indicate that, as of January 2022, TJ's enrollment was down 11 students from the beginning of the 2021-22 school year.

Over the same periods in 2020-21, 2019-20, 2018-19, and 2017-18, TJ's enrollment was down 4, 2, 11 and 6 students, respectively.

So more kids leaving TJ than in 3 or the past 4 years, but no more than in one of those years (2018-19).

Go to 2016-17 and they were down 22 kids by February.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No and no.

Your post implies that more kids have dropped out and it is because of the new admissions, which might be the case. There are kids who never would have thought about TJ that had a chance to try TJ. Some more might drop out because it is a new school and a new type of program for them. Some of those kids are going to stay and find their groove at TJ. That learning process is a part of education. Guess what, there are kids who apply to all sorts of college that go and drop out, even the Ivies.

How about we stop demonizing 12 and 13 year olds and just let them be kids and figure out what school works best for them?

Not sure why some people think that questioning the effectiveness of a brand new, controversial admissions system has anything to do with demonizing kids.

Because you are obsessed with a school and so determined to show that only your way of admitting people leads to success that you are ignoring that the people that you are complaining about being admitted are kids. Because your view doesn't see the opportunities being granted to kids who had no clue that they had this path and see anything other then admittance to a top engineering school by this entire class as a failure. Because you see the kids who were accepted from non-traditional schools for TJ as having taken the spots of kids from schools like Carson and seem to be interested in finding any measure that shows that those kids are lesser.

It is gross.

Anonymous wrote:I would expect the dropout % to increase merely because of the increased logistics and life complexities required for a student who has less support at home.

This. And because there are kids who were offered a chance to try something they had not been exposed to before. Some are going to be overwhelmed and will return to what is more comfortable. Others will put in the work and do fine. Some will thrive and grow in ways we never would have predicted.

But racism

I would expect the dropout % to increase merely because of the increased logistics and life complexities required for a student who has less support at home.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The numbers do not reflect the end of January departures.
The end of the semester is when students withdraw.

OK. Someone can always update after the February enrollment numbers are posted (likely towards the end of the first week of March).

I am OP, and the PP makes a good point.

I look forward to seeing the revised numbers. TIA!

Anonymous wrote:No and no.

Your post implies that more kids have dropped out and it is because of the new admissions, which might be the case. There are kids who never would have thought about TJ that had a chance to try TJ. Some more might drop out because it is a new school and a new type of program for them. Some of those kids are going to stay and find their groove at TJ. That learning process is a part of education. Guess what, there are kids who apply to all sorts of college that go and drop out, even the Ivies.

How about we stop demonizing 12 and 13 year olds and just let them be kids and figure out what school works best for them?

Not sure why some people think that questioning the effectiveness of a brand new, controversial admissions system has anything to do with demonizing kids.

Anonymous wrote:The numbers do not reflect the end of January departures.
The end of the semester is when students withdraw.

OK. Someone can always update after the February enrollment numbers are posted (likely towards the end of the first week of March).

The numbers do not reflect the end of January departures.
The end of the semester is when students withdraw.

Anonymous wrote:Maybe this was what PP was trying to share but the FCPS monthly membership reports indicate that, as of January 2022, TJ's enrollment was down 11 students from the beginning of the 2021-22 school year.

Over the same periods in 2020-21, 2019-20, 2018-19, and 2017-18, TJ's enrollment was down 4, 2, 11 and 6 students, respectively.

So more kids leaving TJ than in 3 or the past 4 years, but no more than in one of those years (2018-19).

Thanks - and yes: those are the numbers I was curious about. A slight change, but not that much of one.

Thx.

Maybe this was what PP was trying to share but the FCPS monthly membership reports indicate that, as of January 2022, TJ's enrollment was down 11 students from the beginning of the 2021-22 school year.

Over the same periods in 2020-21, 2019-20, 2018-19, and 2017-18, TJ's enrollment was down 4, 2, 11 and 6 students, respectively.

So more kids leaving TJ than in 3 or the past 4 years, but no more than in one of those years (2018-19).

What a stupid question to ask on a board that thrives on rumors when actual data is freely available.

https://schoolprofiles.fcps.edu/schlprfl/f?p=108:109:4566711989305::NO:0_CURRENT_SCHOOL_ID,P0_EDSL:300,0

2021-22 data will be available sometime in July. Until then, chill and focus on what you can control.

Anonymous wrote:The TJ bus stop is in front of my house. My office desk faces out that window. In fall, there was 11 TJ kids. Each morning now, there's 6.

I'm in a suburb where all the kids from this area get dropped at this one bus stop for the TJ bus.

I can tell you some parents start carpooling once kids get to know each other. It's not unheard of that kids, who use the bus, stop using the bus once they've made friends and can leverage carpools.

Anonymous wrote:DP. Yes, it's true. Many students have left. It's a rigorous school so it's not surprising. Not sure what people thought would happen.

Thought it would be like old TJ and modern MIT where it is so hard, everyone has to work together to get through. Under old system, classmates complaining the loudest didn't even make the first cut and would have been miserable. There were problems I was hoping would get better:

1)Return to fee-free test: The Class of '97 was the first pay-to-apply and the first to not have the highest number of merit finalists and the first to lose to Stuyvesant and much fewer "A"s in shared '96 '97 classes by '97ers. Had fingers crossed that removing the stupid fee NOBODY wanted, would draw a bigger pool and return TJ to its heyday. I would hate to think some kid on the fence or genius from a poor family didn't apply and gave the spot to a misfit/more academically-challenged rich kid. NOBODY on either side thought removing the fee was a bad idea, both lottery and merit groups.

2)Eclectic ideas from all parts of NOVa: When a huge bulk of students come from Rachel-Carson or previously Longfellow, exposure suffers. As a huge part of TJ is innovation, who better to solve issues such a failing minorities since the onset of virtual or pork-spending on Football Arenas instead of building a second TJ or tutoring intensive to catch students up after pandemic? Rich, brainy kids might be the best candidate if they knew about it. When one goes to Haycock->Longfellow->TJ->UVa Echols the circle is small. From those 30 Haycock kids you might not find a bestie who plays clarinet and lacrosse and loves flirting with girls. When you bring in the top 30 from every middle school, your chances increase.

FWIW, I was strongly opposed to getting rid of the standardized test because people say to women and minorities from poor areas- you cheated, didn't deserve it, are dumb, etc and this is a way to prove just because you went to Langston Hughes and not Rachel Carson doesn't mean you aren't better than the applicants the year before you. Just because your parents divorce and you can't see your dad if you move to the "grade-inflation" district you are dumb. I did however hope for the best once everything was said and done. Instead all I saw was anti-Asian whites dancing in the street.