Anonymous wrote:neither my parents or parents in law appear to be changing their behavior, despite my recommendations. every day is a new excuse to go out somewhere in public, a separate reason that "its ok" and some sort of exception to the need focus on social distancing.
yesterday, a new trash can at wal mart was a crucial need.

and these folks are at moderate risk because of a few run of the mill underlying health conditions.

multiply this by a zillion non-employed old folks (they are ~73-77) who are just restless and need 'go somewhere everyday' because its habit.

these old folks ARENT going to change. we're in for a bumpy ride

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Anyone else concerned that we haven't been able to confirm cases in all of Michigan (!), Miami, New Orleans, etc.? WTF? At this point, the absence of detection points to massive failure more than reassurance, right?

The Michigan thing is weird and concerning. Wuhan is the center or auto parts manufacturing. It seems pretty inconceivable that the virus isn't circulating around lower Michigan. Plus all the universities with the international travel.

Were they waiting until after the primary?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Anyone else concerned that we haven't been able to confirm cases in all of Michigan (!), Miami, New Orleans, etc.? WTF? At this point, the absence of detection points to massive failure more than reassurance, right?

The Michigan thing is weird and concerning. Wuhan is the center or auto parts manufacturing. It seems pretty inconceivable that the virus isn't circulating around lower Michigan. Plus all the universities with the international travel.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Connor Reed, a 25 year old British guy who teaches English in Wuhan had symptoms starting on November 25th. That means he was infected before that. He wasn't given confirmation that what he had been sick with was COVID 19 until January 16th.

Obviously he wasn't patient zero and so there were other circulating cases in November. Travel restrictions weren't put in place until late January in China. So for at least two months, people from Wuhan who had either been infected or in close contact with those infected would have been traveling and circulating with others who were traveling as normal.

I wonder if there are different strains of the virus and some are more infectious than others. It seems Italy and Iran and South Korea have been hit the hardest. You would expect that what happened there would have already happened in other places as well but it hasn't to date. Why did it grow so quickly in those three places but no where else? With international travel, the virus would have been brought to most countries at the same time. Everywhere else has cases or very small clusters (like the Washington LTC) but there hasn't been a massive outbreak despite little being done in many places to prevent it. And given the 20% hospitalization rate and the obvious visibility of it when an explosion happens, there is no way the same strain has just been circulating unnoticed. If you look at Italy, this isn't something that can go unnoticed.

It isn't clear why a few places have been hit much harder. That is why I wonder if there are different strains and some are more infectious than others.

There are S and L types of this virus. It is not clear whether one is more severe. It is also not confirmed that Conner's initial symptoms were this virus or another. He had a 2-day period of being fine before the clearly coronavirus-related symptoms. He could have had two infections.

That has been debunked. I'm beginning to wonder about people.

What has been debunked?

Do some google searching. My GOD

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Honestly, how scared should I be right now? What is the likelihood that I will get this virus? What is the likelihood that I will die?

High. You are stressing. This puts you in the highest risk
Just kidding. Depends how old are you, what other health issues do you have and how overworked and sleep depraved are you. All factors.
In theory 3.4 people die in. 100. In practice this changes up or down depending on the contributing factor.

If you are 22 female, non smoking, no known health issues, well rested and athletic, you are i n low risk group.

If you are a 69 male, smoker, overweight, with high blood pressure, congestive heart failure, diabetes and you drink to the point of liver damage, and your kidneys require dialysis, then stay home tape the door and pray.

This hasn't been how it is playing out in other countries. It sounds reasonable but it's not totally accurate.

The vast majority of people who have died and also needed critical care do fall into the latter category. IT doesn't mean the virus hasn't made younger people sick but virtually all of them recover. The average age of death in Italy is 81 as a reference point. It is something useful to know because the biggest thing I'm taking away from this pandemic is to stay away from old people.

No, this isn't what they've seen in Italy. Healthy people in their 40s and 50s with no other health issues are requiring ventilation and intubation.
Please keep reading.

And it's not what people are seeing in South Korea, which was also hit by the virus and one of the earliest places to see the virus break out. We can point our fingers to Italy but we should also look at South Korea. Their experience has been very different from Italy. They've aggressively tested people, around 7500 positive, but only 52 deaths so far.

The virus does affect people across the age spectrum but vastly and disproportionately affects the elderly. It's something to keep in mind. People do need to be sensible and realistic about the virus.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Connor Reed, a 25 year old British guy who teaches English in Wuhan had symptoms starting on November 25th. That means he was infected before that. He wasn't given confirmation that what he had been sick with was COVID 19 until January 16th.

Obviously he wasn't patient zero and so there were other circulating cases in November. Travel restrictions weren't put in place until late January in China. So for at least two months, people from Wuhan who had either been infected or in close contact with those infected would have been traveling and circulating with others who were traveling as normal.

I wonder if there are different strains of the virus and some are more infectious than others. It seems Italy and Iran and South Korea have been hit the hardest. You would expect that what happened there would have already happened in other places as well but it hasn't to date. Why did it grow so quickly in those three places but no where else? With international travel, the virus would have been brought to most countries at the same time. Everywhere else has cases or very small clusters (like the Washington LTC) but there hasn't been a massive outbreak despite little being done in many places to prevent it. And given the 20% hospitalization rate and the obvious visibility of it when an explosion happens, there is no way the same strain has just been circulating unnoticed. If you look at Italy, this isn't something that can go unnoticed.

It isn't clear why a few places have been hit much harder. That is why I wonder if there are different strains and some are more infectious than others.

There are S and L types of this virus. It is not clear whether one is more severe. It is also not confirmed that Conner's initial symptoms were this virus or another. He had a 2-day period of being fine before the clearly coronavirus-related symptoms. He could have had two infections.

That has been debunked. I'm beginning to wonder about people.

What has been debunked?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Honestly, how scared should I be right now? What is the likelihood that I will get this virus? What is the likelihood that I will die?

High. You are stressing. This puts you in the highest risk
Just kidding. Depends how old are you, what other health issues do you have and how overworked and sleep depraved are you. All factors.
In theory 3.4 people die in. 100. In practice this changes up or down depending on the contributing factor.

If you are 22 female, non smoking, no known health issues, well rested and athletic, you are i n low risk group.

If you are a 69 male, smoker, overweight, with high blood pressure, congestive heart failure, diabetes and you drink to the point of liver damage, and your kidneys require dialysis, then stay home tape the door and pray.

This hasn't been how it is playing out in other countries. It sounds reasonable but it's not totally accurate.

The vast majority of people who have died and also needed critical care do fall into the latter category. IT doesn't mean the virus hasn't made younger people sick but virtually all of them recover. The average age of death in Italy is 81 as a reference point. It is something useful to know because the biggest thing I'm taking away from this pandemic is to stay away from old people.

No, this isn't what they've seen in Italy. Healthy people in their 40s and 50s with no other health issues are requiring ventilation and intubation.
Please keep reading.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Connor Reed, a 25 year old British guy who teaches English in Wuhan had symptoms starting on November 25th. That means he was infected before that. He wasn't given confirmation that what he had been sick with was COVID 19 until January 16th.

Obviously he wasn't patient zero and so there were other circulating cases in November. Travel restrictions weren't put in place until late January in China. So for at least two months, people from Wuhan who had either been infected or in close contact with those infected would have been traveling and circulating with others who were traveling as normal.

I wonder if there are different strains of the virus and some are more infectious than others. It seems Italy and Iran and South Korea have been hit the hardest. You would expect that what happened there would have already happened in other places as well but it hasn't to date. Why did it grow so quickly in those three places but no where else? With international travel, the virus would have been brought to most countries at the same time. Everywhere else has cases or very small clusters (like the Washington LTC) but there hasn't been a massive outbreak despite little being done in many places to prevent it. And given the 20% hospitalization rate and the obvious visibility of it when an explosion happens, there is no way the same strain has just been circulating unnoticed. If you look at Italy, this isn't something that can go unnoticed.

It isn't clear why a few places have been hit much harder. That is why I wonder if there are different strains and some are more infectious than others.

There are S and L types of this virus. It is not clear whether one is more severe. It is also not confirmed that Conner's initial symptoms were this virus or another. He had a 2-day period of being fine before the clearly coronavirus-related symptoms. He could have had two infections.

That has been debunked. I'm beginning to wonder about people.

Anonymous wrote:Anyone else concerned that we haven't been able to confirm cases in all of Michigan (!), Miami, New Orleans, etc.? WTF? At this point, the absence of detection points to massive failure more than reassurance, right?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Honestly, how scared should I be right now? What is the likelihood that I will get this virus? What is the likelihood that I will die?

High. You are stressing. This puts you in the highest risk
Just kidding. Depends how old are you, what other health issues do you have and how overworked and sleep depraved are you. All factors.
In theory 3.4 people die in. 100. In practice this changes up or down depending on the contributing factor.

If you are 22 female, non smoking, no known health issues, well rested and athletic, you are i n low risk group.

If you are a 69 male, smoker, overweight, with high blood pressure, congestive heart failure, diabetes and you drink to the point of liver damage, and your kidneys require dialysis, then stay home tape the door and pray.

This hasn't been how it is playing out in other countries. It sounds reasonable but it's not totally accurate.

The vast majority of people who have died and also needed critical care do fall into the latter category. IT doesn't mean the virus hasn't made younger people sick but virtually all of them recover. The average age of death in Italy is 81 as a reference point. It is something useful to know because the biggest thing I'm taking away from this pandemic is to stay away from old people.

No, this isn't what they've seen in Italy. Healthy people in their 40s and 50s with no other health issues are requiring ventilation and intubation.
Please keep reading.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Anyone else concerned that we haven't been able to confirm cases in all of Michigan (!), Miami, New Orleans, etc.? WTF? At this point, the absence of detection points to massive failure more than reassurance, right?

Do all states have tests now?

Having tests is insufficient. You need to either test everybody regularly or everybody who has any symptoms at all.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Connor Reed, a 25 year old British guy who teaches English in Wuhan had symptoms starting on November 25th. That means he was infected before that. He wasn't given confirmation that what he had been sick with was COVID 19 until January 16th.

Obviously he wasn't patient zero and so there were other circulating cases in November. Travel restrictions weren't put in place until late January in China. So for at least two months, people from Wuhan who had either been infected or in close contact with those infected would have been traveling and circulating with others who were traveling as normal.

I wonder if there are different strains of the virus and some are more infectious than others. It seems Italy and Iran and South Korea have been hit the hardest. You would expect that what happened there would have already happened in other places as well but it hasn't to date. Why did it grow so quickly in those three places but no where else? With international travel, the virus would have been brought to most countries at the same time. Everywhere else has cases or very small clusters (like the Washington LTC) but there hasn't been a massive outbreak despite little being done in many places to prevent it. And given the 20% hospitalization rate and the obvious visibility of it when an explosion happens, there is no way the same strain has just been circulating unnoticed. If you look at Italy, this isn't something that can go unnoticed.

It isn't clear why a few places have been hit much harder. That is why I wonder if there are different strains and some are more infectious than others.

There are S and L types of this virus. It is not clear whether one is more severe. It is also not confirmed that Conner's initial symptoms were this virus or another. He had a 2-day period of being fine before the clearly coronavirus-related symptoms. He could have had two infections.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Honestly, how scared should I be right now? What is the likelihood that I will get this virus? What is the likelihood that I will die?

High. You are stressing. This puts you in the highest risk
Just kidding. Depends how old are you, what other health issues do you have and how overworked and sleep depraved are you. All factors.
In theory 3.4 people die in. 100. In practice this changes up or down depending on the contributing factor.

If you are 22 female, non smoking, no known health issues, well rested and athletic, you are i n low risk group.

If you are a 69 male, smoker, overweight, with high blood pressure, congestive heart failure, diabetes and you drink to the point of liver damage, and your kidneys require dialysis, then stay home tape the door and pray.

This hasn't been how it is playing out in other countries. It sounds reasonable but it's not totally accurate.

The vast majority of people who have died and also needed critical care do fall into the latter category. IT doesn't mean the virus hasn't made younger people sick but virtually all of them recover. The average age of death in Italy is 81 as a reference point. It is something useful to know because the biggest thing I'm taking away from this pandemic is to stay away from old people.