DCUM Forum

Anonymous

10/23/2020 00:11 Subject: Re:2020 Senate Map

“The Christian Civic League of Maine supports conversion therapy and opposes gay marriage — and the Republican senator is thrilled to have its support.“
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/susan-collins-christian-civic-league-endorsement_n_5f91a66ac5b61c185f48043b

Anonymous

10/22/2020 23:52 Subject: 2020 Senate Map

If Kelly is all that popular why are the polls all over the map?

Anonymous

10/22/2020 23:23 Subject: 2020 Senate Map

Anonymous wrote:Monmouth had Kelly 8 points up. Another poll had him 11 points up. He is way up in the polls. You need to look at polling averages, not just look at one partisan poll that shows him 2 points up.

+1. McSally is not well liked and I wouldn’t be surprised if she lost even if Biden still lost Arizona. But I think Biden and Kelly are both going to win it.

Anonymous

10/22/2020 22:58 Subject: 2020 Senate Map

Monmouth had Kelly 8 points up. Another poll had him 11 points up. He is way up in the polls. You need to look at polling averages, not just look at one partisan poll that shows him 2 points up.

Anonymous

10/22/2020 21:52 Subject: Re:2020 Senate Map

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Some interesting polls came in today on 538.com. Except for Georgia And Texas, it’s all mighty good news for the Dems.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

Texas Oct 11-20, 2020. 3,347 LV Morning Consult
Hegar 41% Cornyn 46%

S.C. Oct 11-20, 2020 926 LV Morning Consult
Harrison 47% Graham 45

N.C. Oct 11-20, 2020 1,904 LV Morning Consult
Cunningham 48% Tillis 42%

Mich. Oct 11-20, 2020 1,717 LV Morning Consult
Peters 48% James 42%

Ga. Oct 11-20, 2020 1,672 LV Morning Consult
Ossoff 44% Perdue 46%

Colo. Oct 11-20, 2020 788 LV Morning Consult
Hickenlooper 50% Gardner 42

Ariz. Oct 11-20, 2020 1,066 LV Morning Consult
Biden 47% Trump 48%

Arizona is TERRIBLE news. They also show significant tightening in the senate race there.

One thing I like about 538 is that it gives an idea of how much you should worry about each individual poll. In this case, not much.

Anonymous

10/22/2020 21:47 Subject: Re:2020 Senate Map

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Some interesting polls came in today on 538.com. Except for Georgia And Texas, it’s all mighty good news for the Dems.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

Texas Oct 11-20, 2020. 3,347 LV Morning Consult
Hegar 41% Cornyn 46%

S.C. Oct 11-20, 2020 926 LV Morning Consult
Harrison 47% Graham 45

N.C. Oct 11-20, 2020 1,904 LV Morning Consult
Cunningham 48% Tillis 42%

Mich. Oct 11-20, 2020 1,717 LV Morning Consult
Peters 48% James 42%

Ga. Oct 11-20, 2020 1,672 LV Morning Consult
Ossoff 44% Perdue 46%

Colo. Oct 11-20, 2020 788 LV Morning Consult
Hickenlooper 50% Gardner 42

Ariz. Oct 11-20, 2020 1,066 LV Morning Consult
Biden 47% Trump 48%

Arizona is TERRIBLE news. They also show significant tightening in the senate race there.

My bad. I meant to post only Senate races where Kelly is still up although yes it has tightened.
Ariz. Oct 11-20, 2020 1,066 LV
Morning Consult Kelly 48% McSally 44%

If Biden lose Arizona, Kelly lose the Senate race. Not looking too good.

Anonymous

10/22/2020 21:44 Subject: Re:2020 Senate Map

Anonymous wrote:Some interesting polls came in today on 538.com. Except for Georgia And Texas, it’s all mighty good news for the Dems.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

Texas Oct 11-20, 2020. 3,347 LV Morning Consult
Hegar 41% Cornyn 46%

S.C. Oct 11-20, 2020 926 LV Morning Consult
Harrison 47% Graham 45

N.C. Oct 11-20, 2020 1,904 LV Morning Consult
Cunningham 48% Tillis 42%

Mich. Oct 11-20, 2020 1,717 LV Morning Consult
Peters 48% James 42%

Ga. Oct 11-20, 2020 1,672 LV Morning Consult
Ossoff 44% Perdue 46%

Colo. Oct 11-20, 2020 788 LV Morning Consult
Hickenlooper 50% Gardner 42

Ariz. Oct 11-20, 2020 1,066 LV Morning Consult
Biden 47% Trump 48%

This does not look like good news to me. Arizona, Georgia, Texas and maybe South Carolina numbers are sad for the Democrats.

Anonymous

10/22/2020 19:47 Subject: Re:2020 Senate Map

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Some interesting polls came in today on 538.com. Except for Georgia And Texas, it’s all mighty good news for the Dems.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

Texas Oct 11-20, 2020. 3,347 LV Morning Consult
Hegar 41% Cornyn 46%

S.C. Oct 11-20, 2020 926 LV Morning Consult
Harrison 47% Graham 45

N.C. Oct 11-20, 2020 1,904 LV Morning Consult
Cunningham 48% Tillis 42%

Mich. Oct 11-20, 2020 1,717 LV Morning Consult
Peters 48% James 42%

Ga. Oct 11-20, 2020 1,672 LV Morning Consult
Ossoff 44% Perdue 46%

Colo. Oct 11-20, 2020 788 LV Morning Consult
Hickenlooper 50% Gardner 42

Ariz. Oct 11-20, 2020 1,066 LV Morning Consult
Biden 47% Trump 48%

Arizona is TERRIBLE news. They also show significant tightening in the senate race there.

So unsurprised. I have family out there, and they talk about McSally's "impressiveness" nonstop. (Their words, not mine.)

Anonymous

10/22/2020 19:44 Subject: Re:2020 Senate Map

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Some interesting polls came in today on 538.com. Except for Georgia And Texas, it’s all mighty good news for the Dems.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

Texas Oct 11-20, 2020. 3,347 LV Morning Consult
Hegar 41% Cornyn 46%

S.C. Oct 11-20, 2020 926 LV Morning Consult
Harrison 47% Graham 45

N.C. Oct 11-20, 2020 1,904 LV Morning Consult
Cunningham 48% Tillis 42%

Mich. Oct 11-20, 2020 1,717 LV Morning Consult
Peters 48% James 42%

Ga. Oct 11-20, 2020 1,672 LV Morning Consult
Ossoff 44% Perdue 46%

Colo. Oct 11-20, 2020 788 LV Morning Consult
Hickenlooper 50% Gardner 42

Ariz. Oct 11-20, 2020 1,066 LV Morning Consult
Biden 47% Trump 48%

Arizona is TERRIBLE news. They also show significant tightening in the senate race there.

My bad. I meant to post only Senate races where Kelly is still up although yes it has tightened.
Ariz. Oct 11-20, 2020 1,066 LV
Morning Consult Kelly 48% McSally 44%

Wow! That’s not good.

Biden may not need Arizona if his polls hold. He has multiple paths to victory. But we do need that senate seat to flip, and that has been polling steadily mark Kelly’s way for months.

Anonymous

10/22/2020 19:38 Subject: Re:2020 Senate Map

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Some interesting polls came in today on 538.com. Except for Georgia And Texas, it’s all mighty good news for the Dems.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

Texas Oct 11-20, 2020. 3,347 LV Morning Consult
Hegar 41% Cornyn 46%

S.C. Oct 11-20, 2020 926 LV Morning Consult
Harrison 47% Graham 45

N.C. Oct 11-20, 2020 1,904 LV Morning Consult
Cunningham 48% Tillis 42%

Mich. Oct 11-20, 2020 1,717 LV Morning Consult
Peters 48% James 42%

Ga. Oct 11-20, 2020 1,672 LV Morning Consult
Ossoff 44% Perdue 46%

Colo. Oct 11-20, 2020 788 LV Morning Consult
Hickenlooper 50% Gardner 42

Ariz. Oct 11-20, 2020 1,066 LV Morning Consult
Biden 47% Trump 48%

Arizona is TERRIBLE news. They also show significant tightening in the senate race there.

My bad. I meant to post only Senate races where Kelly is still up although yes it has tightened.
Ariz. Oct 11-20, 2020 1,066 LV
Morning Consult Kelly 48% McSally 44%

Wow! That’s not good.

Anonymous

10/22/2020 19:35 Subject: Re:2020 Senate Map

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vox.com/platform/amp/21508336/montanas-senate-race-steve-bullock-daines

Montana still too close to call on Senate. Went very strongly Trump in 2016 but his popularity slipped a ton.

Perhaps the biggest sign of danger for Daines is Trump’s slipping approval rating in a state he won overwhelmingly four years ago. The Montana State University poll found the president has a 7-point lead over Joe Biden, compared to a 16-point polling lead over Hillary Clinton in October 2016. The latest polling result echoes a troubling national trend for Republican politicians.

Save for one outlier poll finding Daines ahead by 9 points, most of the recent polling in the Montana Senate race shows a dead heat.

Public polling show Bullock and Daines essentially trading places, either one or two points ahead of the other candidate. The larger picture is that it’s a race with no clear frontrunner right now.

Anonymous

10/22/2020 08:29 Subject: Re:2020 Senate Map

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Some interesting polls came in today on 538.com. Except for Georgia And Texas, it’s all mighty good news for the Dems.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

Texas Oct 11-20, 2020. 3,347 LV Morning Consult
Hegar 41% Cornyn 46%

S.C. Oct 11-20, 2020 926 LV Morning Consult
Harrison 47% Graham 45

N.C. Oct 11-20, 2020 1,904 LV Morning Consult
Cunningham 48% Tillis 42%

Mich. Oct 11-20, 2020 1,717 LV Morning Consult
Peters 48% James 42%

Ga. Oct 11-20, 2020 1,672 LV Morning Consult
Ossoff 44% Perdue 46%

Colo. Oct 11-20, 2020 788 LV Morning Consult
Hickenlooper 50% Gardner 42

Ariz. Oct 11-20, 2020 1,066 LV Morning Consult
Biden 47% Trump 48%

Arizona is TERRIBLE news. They also show significant tightening in the senate race there.

My bad. I meant to post only Senate races where Kelly is still up although yes it has tightened.
Ariz. Oct 11-20, 2020 1,066 LV
Morning Consult Kelly 48% McSally 44%

Anonymous

10/22/2020 08:24 Subject: Re:2020 Senate Map

Anonymous wrote:Some interesting polls came in today on 538.com. Except for Georgia And Texas, it’s all mighty good news for the Dems.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

Texas Oct 11-20, 2020. 3,347 LV Morning Consult
Hegar 41% Cornyn 46%

S.C. Oct 11-20, 2020 926 LV Morning Consult
Harrison 47% Graham 45

N.C. Oct 11-20, 2020 1,904 LV Morning Consult
Cunningham 48% Tillis 42%

Mich. Oct 11-20, 2020 1,717 LV Morning Consult
Peters 48% James 42%

Ga. Oct 11-20, 2020 1,672 LV Morning Consult
Ossoff 44% Perdue 46%

Colo. Oct 11-20, 2020 788 LV Morning Consult
Hickenlooper 50% Gardner 42

Ariz. Oct 11-20, 2020 1,066 LV Morning Consult
Biden 47% Trump 48%

Arizona is TERRIBLE news. They also show significant tightening in the senate race there.

Anonymous

10/22/2020 08:19 Subject: Re:2020 Senate Map

Some interesting polls came in today on 538.com. Except for Georgia And Texas, it’s all mighty good news for the Dems.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

Texas Oct 11-20, 2020. 3,347 LV Morning Consult
Hegar 41% Cornyn 46%

S.C. Oct 11-20, 2020 926 LV Morning Consult
Harrison 47% Graham 45

N.C. Oct 11-20, 2020 1,904 LV Morning Consult
Cunningham 48% Tillis 42%

Mich. Oct 11-20, 2020 1,717 LV Morning Consult
Peters 48% James 42%

Ga. Oct 11-20, 2020 1,672 LV Morning Consult
Ossoff 44% Perdue 46%

Colo. Oct 11-20, 2020 788 LV Morning Consult
Hickenlooper 50% Gardner 42

Ariz. Oct 11-20, 2020 1,066 LV Morning Consult
Biden 47% Trump 48%

Anonymous

10/21/2020 23:58 Subject: Re:2020 Senate Map

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/10/20/upshot/poll-georgia-biden-trump.amp.html

In the regularly scheduled Senate election, Mr. Ossoff is now tied with Mr. Perdue at 43 percent. Mr. Perdue led Mr. Ossoff by four percentage points a month ago, 41 percent to 37 percent.

The survey was conducted from Oct. 13 to 19, and it found no immediate evidence of a shift in Mr. Ossoff’s favor after Mr. Perdue made national headlines by mocking the first name of the Democratic vice-presidential nominee, Kamala Harris, on Oct. 16.

Nonetheless, Mr. Perdue’s favorability ratings declined significantly since the last Times/Siena poll in September, when 47 percent of voters had a favorable view of him and 34 percent had an unfavorable one. Now, Mr. Perdue’s ratings stand at 44 percent favorable and 42 percent unfavorable.

Mr. Ossoff’s ratings have remained largely unchanged, with 44 percent holding a favorable view of him and 39 percent an unfavorable one.

14% undecided. Those will likely break for Perdue.

Why do you assume that?

Oh, nothing solid. Just my guess that anyone undecided at this point don’t want to share that they’re going to vote to continue the current dumpster fire.

Undecideds typically break against incumbents.

I know. It’s probably 2016 PTSD. Like how could someone have watched everything that transpired in the last 3 1/2 years, and still have no strong opinions on where the country should head?