Anonymous
07/21/2020 22:15
Subject: Gov Hogan announcement re schools this week?
Did we not anticipate an increase after the long weekend? I thought it was expected.
Anonymous
07/21/2020 17:57
Subject: Gov Hogan announcement re schools this week?
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:NY state just added Maryland to their list of states from which you can't come to NY (or you have to quarantine for 14 days). I thought Maryland was doing well. What are they basing this on???
I've been TELLING you guys all through this thread that Maryland was not on the right course. I was called an idiot a few times, I think.
People in MD have been too focused on LATE indicators like hospitalization and death. And they have been overly focused on testing positivity percent.
To keep spread under control, most states and countries have settled on watching the following metrics:
1) New cases per million per day of under 20 (new cases per 100,000 per day of under 2)
2) Percent positivity of less than 2%
3) Testing widely (not sure exactly how this is measured -- on www.covidexitstrategy.org they have a target set and testing 100% of that target or better yet 150% is a good thing[)
States that are getting put on NY/NJ/CT quarantine list are doing badly on the above measures. Their new cases per million per day are more than 100 (more than 10 per 100,000) Their positivity rate is higher than 10%.
Maryland has about 120 new cases per million per day and it is rising fast. Yeah our positivity rate is 5% or so but we aren't going to be able to stay there much longer because we have more and more new cases.
+1, right there with you on the important stats.
+2. It has been so frustrating watching this happen and seeing Hogan do nothing but go on talk shows to promote himself.
+3 And the state reports per Gov. Hogan’s site higher than 5% now and people want to deny facts and say we are “flat” and steady. No, we are on a no travel list now.
Anonymous
07/21/2020 17:56
Subject: Gov Hogan announcement re schools this week?
Anonymous wrote:
+2. It has been so frustrating watching this happen and seeing Hogan do nothing but go on talk shows to promote himself.
He has a book to sell and a presidency to run for, after all. That's more important.
Anonymous
07/21/2020 17:54
Subject: Gov Hogan announcement re schools this week?
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:NY state just added Maryland to their list of states from which you can't come to NY (or you have to quarantine for 14 days). I thought Maryland was doing well. What are they basing this on???
I've been TELLING you guys all through this thread that Maryland was not on the right course. I was called an idiot a few times, I think.
People in MD have been too focused on LATE indicators like hospitalization and death. And they have been overly focused on testing positivity percent.
To keep spread under control, most states and countries have settled on watching the following metrics:
1) New cases per million per day of under 20 (new cases per 100,000 per day of under 2)
2) Percent positivity of less than 2%
3) Testing widely (not sure exactly how this is measured -- on www.covidexitstrategy.org they have a target set and testing 100% of that target or better yet 150% is a good thing[)
States that are getting put on NY/NJ/CT quarantine list are doing badly on the above measures. Their new cases per million per day are more than 100 (more than 10 per 100,000) Their positivity rate is higher than 10%.
Maryland has about 120 new cases per million per day and it is rising fast. Yeah our positivity rate is 5% or so but we aren't going to be able to stay there much longer because we have more and more new cases.
+1, right there with you on the important stats.
+2. It has been so frustrating watching this happen and seeing Hogan do nothing but go on talk shows to promote himself.
Anonymous
07/21/2020 17:46
Subject: Gov Hogan announcement re schools this week?
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:NY state just added Maryland to their list of states from which you can't come to NY (or you have to quarantine for 14 days). I thought Maryland was doing well. What are they basing this on???
I've been TELLING you guys all through this thread that Maryland was not on the right course. I was called an idiot a few times, I think.
People in MD have been too focused on LATE indicators like hospitalization and death. And they have been overly focused on testing positivity percent.
To keep spread under control, most states and countries have settled on watching the following metrics:
1) New cases per million per day of under 20 (new cases per 100,000 per day of under 2)
2) Percent positivity of less than 2%
3) Testing widely (not sure exactly how this is measured -- on www.covidexitstrategy.org they have a target set and testing 100% of that target or better yet 150% is a good thing[)
States that are getting put on NY/NJ/CT quarantine list are doing badly on the above measures. Their new cases per million per day are more than 100 (more than 10 per 100,000) Their positivity rate is higher than 10%.
Maryland has about 120 new cases per million per day and it is rising fast. Yeah our positivity rate is 5% or so but we aren't going to be able to stay there much longer because we have more and more new cases.
+1, right there with you on the important stats.
Anonymous
07/21/2020 16:50
Subject: Re:Gov Hogan announcement re schools this week?
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:I agree that counties have different conditions.
Yesterday I looked up the new cases for each county. It was just one day not a 7 day average (I wish we had these kinds of statistics available as well as positivity rate but right now no one is posting new cases per million per day by county.
Anyhow, it was suprising how high the new cases per million per day were for some counties!
(For comparison purposes, Italy is at THREE new cases per million per day and FLorida is at 552 new cases per million per day)
Worcester: 17/52,000= 326 new cases per million per day
Baltimore City 143/620,000 = 230 new cases per million per day
Howard County 57 / 325,000 = 175 new cases per million per day.
Baltimore County 141/827,000 = 170 new cases per million per day
AA County = 89/580,000= 153 new cases per million per day
Frederick County 40/260,000. 153 new cases per million per day.
PG County 123/909,000 = 135 new cases per million per day
Harford County 29 / 255,000 = 113 new cases per million per day
Garrett County 3/30,000 = 100 new cases per million per day
St Mary's County 11 / 113,000 = 98 new cases per million per day.
MoCo = 89 new cases per million per day
Harvard’s global health department has a great website with 7 day avgs case counts indexed to population by county. No need to do these calcs on the back of an envelope with raw data. https://globalepidemics.org/key-metrics-for-covid-suppression/
That's not all the counties. You're missing several including Charles (just south of PG).
Yes, I know. II think we have 28 counties? I didn't feel like doing all the math for all of them. My point was just that the high rate of new COVID cases per day wasn't just in the "urban" communities.
Anonymous
07/21/2020 16:47
Subject: Gov Hogan announcement re schools this week?
Anonymous wrote:NY state just added Maryland to their list of states from which you can't come to NY (or you have to quarantine for 14 days). I thought Maryland was doing well. What are they basing this on???
I've been TELLING you guys all through this thread that Maryland was not on the right course. I was called an idiot a few times, I think.
People in MD have been too focused on LATE indicators like hospitalization and death. And they have been overly focused on testing positivity percent.
To keep spread under control, most states and countries have settled on watching the following metrics:
1) New cases per million per day of under 20 (new cases per 100,000 per day of under 2)
2) Percent positivity of less than 2%
3) Testing widely (not sure exactly how this is measured -- on www.covidexitstrategy.org they have a target set and testing 100% of that target or better yet 150% is a good thing[)
States that are getting put on NY/NJ/CT quarantine list are doing badly on the above measures. Their new cases per million per day are more than 100 (more than 10 per 100,000) Their positivity rate is higher than 10%.
Maryland has about 120 new cases per million per day and it is rising fast. Yeah our positivity rate is 5% or so but we aren't going to be able to stay there much longer because we have more and more new cases.
Anonymous
07/21/2020 16:34
Subject: Gov Hogan announcement re schools this week?
Anonymous wrote:Random sampling: https://theconversation.com/want-to-know-how-many-people-have-the-coronavirus-test-randomly-135784
One of the PPs here. To add to this, to achieve a truly random sample you’d need to knock on doors with a badge and a gun and a warrant and forcibly shove swabs up peoples noses. I am not advocating this approach, but thinking on it helps to understand what the is meant by a random sample.
Anonymous
07/21/2020 16:31
Subject: Gov Hogan announcement re schools this week?
You can't close your borders, but you can close the damn bars, Governor Hogan.
Anonymous
07/21/2020 16:29
Subject: Re:Gov Hogan announcement re schools this week?
from today's Washington Post live updates:
Hogan says current coronavirus numbers don’t justify rolling back state’s reopening
Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) said Tuesday that Maryland’s current coronavirus numbers do not justify rolling back the state’s reopening plan. But he said he is continuing to monitor the state’s positivity rate, acute and hospital bed usage, and number of deaths in the state, and will not hesitate to “do something” if it is “absolutely necessary.”
“They are all trending in the right direction, unlike some other states,” Hogan said during a discussion with Scott Gottlieb, former commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration. “But as soon as we start to see numbers that don’t look good, it’s going to cause us to take whatever actions that are necessary. … My goal is to try to keep the economy safely open because the economic crisis is nearly as bad as or just as bad as the health crisis.”
Local health leaders in six of the state’s most populous jurisdictions have called on Hogan to reconsider the activities the state allows during the pandemic, including large gatherings and indoor service in bars and restaurants. These health officials say they are increasingly concerned about the number of cases and rate of transmission.
Last week Hogan called on local leaders to clamp down on bar and restaurant owners that were not adhering to mask wearing and social distancing requirements after seeing “some concerning and alarming numbers” among people under 35 years old who he said are going to parties and bars and not following the rules.
He said he remains concerned about the positivity rate among young people, which is nearly twice the rate of those 35 and older.
Hogan said he is advising people who visit hot-spot states such as Florida or Georgia to watch for symptoms, get tested and self-quarantine.
“We’re seeing people come up from some of the Southern states,” he said. “It was happening back from New York and New Jersey, back when they were hot spots. Now we’re seeing Southern states come up, but you can’t close your borders.”
By Ovetta Wiggins
Hogan says current coronavirus numbers don’t justify rolling back state’s reopening
Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) said Tuesday that Maryland’s current coronavirus numbers do not justify rolling back the state’s reopening plan. But he said he is continuing to monitor the state’s positivity rate, acute and hospital bed usage, and number of deaths in the state, and will not hesitate to “do something” if it is “absolutely necessary.”
“They are all trending in the right direction, unlike some other states,” Hogan said during a discussion with Scott Gottlieb, former commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration. “But as soon as we start to see numbers that don’t look good, it’s going to cause us to take whatever actions that are necessary. … My goal is to try to keep the economy safely open because the economic crisis is nearly as bad as or just as bad as the health crisis.”
Local health leaders in six of the state’s most populous jurisdictions have called on Hogan to reconsider the activities the state allows during the pandemic, including large gatherings and indoor service in bars and restaurants. These health officials say they are increasingly concerned about the number of cases and rate of transmission.
Last week Hogan called on local leaders to clamp down on bar and restaurant owners that were not adhering to mask wearing and social distancing requirements after seeing “some concerning and alarming numbers” among people under 35 years old who he said are going to parties and bars and not following the rules.
He said he remains concerned about the positivity rate among young people, which is nearly twice the rate of those 35 and older.
Hogan said he is advising people who visit hot-spot states such as Florida or Georgia to watch for symptoms, get tested and self-quarantine.
“We’re seeing people come up from some of the Southern states,” he said. “It was happening back from New York and New Jersey, back when they were hot spots. Now we’re seeing Southern states come up, but you can’t close your borders.”
By Ovetta Wiggins
Anonymous
07/21/2020 16:27
Subject: Gov Hogan announcement re schools this week?
NY state just added Maryland to their list of states from which you can't come to NY (or you have to quarantine for 14 days). I thought Maryland was doing well. What are they basing this on???
Anonymous
07/21/2020 15:35
Subject: Gov Hogan announcement re schools this week?
Anonymous
07/21/2020 15:08
Subject: Gov Hogan announcement re schools this week?
Anonymous wrote:Tests are more widely available, and people are wasting them.
There are tons of threads on dcum where people say they got their family tested before driving to visit grandma or go to the cape, and then they got tested again when they came home.
No symptoms. No reason to think they were sick. And their entire family was tested twice within the span of a month.
Where is your MPH from? I think you might want to return it. Widespread testing - including of asyptomatic people - is critical to flattening the curve (again!) If people had been tested frequently back in March, we wouldn't be in this mess. Frequent testing (and tracing and quarentining when needed) now is our only shot at turning things around again.
Anonymous
07/21/2020 14:56
Subject: Re:Gov Hogan announcement re schools this week?
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:None of Maryland’s numbers are increasing (positivity rate, hospitalizations, deaths), not declining as rapid,u as before, bu to de you get below 5 percent, that is inevitable.
Maryland's new cases per day are very much increasing.
Deaths lag by about 4 weeks. Our death rates will rise, and hospitalization rates will rise sooner.
Are you slow about everything or just feign stupidity with respect to covid? After four months of this, you must realize that the number of positive cases is meaningless because it is dependent on how many tests are given. The number that is relevant is percent of tests positive.
Please enlighten us, professor, of what a random sample would look like.
Somebody is wrong on the internet!
Until we get to a pervasive testing regime, the percent positive absolutely is a function of the number of tests because you are sampling on the dependent variable.
The number of positive tests is dependent on how many positives cases are in the community. If the spread rate is 10% then 10% of tests is positive no mater whether you do 50 tests a day or 500.
This statement is true if you are sampling in a truly random fashion. You aren’t. The fewer the number of tests the more likely a test is used on someone with a high likelihood of having the disease.
If you don’t understand the implications of this, please don’t stat-splain to the rest of us.
You are making an assumption that with few tests only symptomatic people will get tested. As we have a great availability of tests now, we are requiring testing for everyone before procedures, with possible exposure etc. We are sampling a truly random sample now. There are test sites in Maryland that do not require a doctor order and are free. We are weaning our asymptomatic carriers. Maryland testing program is robust and yes, we have a random sampling.
Testing more people, including asymptomatic people =/= a random sample
+1 I'm a professor and teach a methods/statistics course. That is not the definition of a random sample.
PP again, what is happening is closer to Convenience sampling.
Anonymous
07/21/2020 14:43
Subject: Re:Gov Hogan announcement re schools this week?
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:None of Maryland’s numbers are increasing (positivity rate, hospitalizations, deaths), not declining as rapid,u as before, bu to de you get below 5 percent, that is inevitable.
Maryland's new cases per day are very much increasing.
Deaths lag by about 4 weeks. Our death rates will rise, and hospitalization rates will rise sooner.
Are you slow about everything or just feign stupidity with respect to covid? After four months of this, you must realize that the number of positive cases is meaningless because it is dependent on how many tests are given. The number that is relevant is percent of tests positive.
Somebody is wrong on the internet!
Until we get to a pervasive testing regime, the percent positive absolutely is a function of the number of tests because you are sampling on the dependent variable.
The number of positive tests is dependent on how many positives cases are in the community. If the spread rate is 10% then 10% of tests is positive no mater whether you do 50 tests a day or 500.
This statement is true if you are sampling in a truly random fashion. You aren’t. The fewer the number of tests the more likely a test is used on someone with a high likelihood of having the disease.
If you don’t understand the implications of this, please don’t stat-splain to the rest of us.
You are making an assumption that with few tests only symptomatic people will get tested. As we have a great availability of tests now, we are requiring testing for everyone before procedures, with possible exposure etc. We are sampling a truly random sample now. There are test sites in Maryland that do not require a doctor order and are free. We are weaning our asymptomatic carriers. Maryland testing program is robust and yes, we have a random sampling.
Testing more people, including asymptomatic people =/= a random sample
+1 I'm a professor and teach a methods/statistics course. That is not the definition of a random sample.
PP again, what is happening is closer to Convenience sampling.