Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Right. Cases per 100,000 is one metric but that's why you have to look at ALL of these with this virus, because of the high-ish number of very mild cases (and I mean truly mild, not just "not hopsitalized".) Because even if you have a very high number of people per 100,000 testing positive, if a significant number of those are asymptomatic or truly mild, you do not need to shut down your economy again.

It's looking like the places (countries, states) that are doing best with COVID are those that are getting their numbers down to two things:

- New cases per 100,000 per day of 1 or fewer
- percent positive of tests at 2% or lower
- testing a large number of people each day

All three things work together to validate that there are few cases going around and that things can get back to normal and you can "reopen your economy".

If we try to "reopen the economy" too early (before those low levels have been reached) we won't be able to use contact tracing when we have outbreaks, and this is going to drag on and on and on and on and on.

Getting down to 5% positivity and 4 new cases per 100,000 per day apparently isn't good enough, which is why MD is having trouble now.

What is Maryland having trouble with exactly? Because as far as I can tell, hospitalizations are still low and manageable...

Mitigation = some reduction in the rate of R (the reproduction number of the virus) through diagnostic testing and contact tracing.
Suppression = an effort to get to zero or near zero case incidence.

Both mitigation and suppression require a suite of activities ranging from stay-at-home advisories to 6-foot social distancing to mask wearing to TTSI implementation. TTSI is a tool that can be deployed at either mitigation or suppression levels. However, we strongly recommend jurisdictions that have the capacity to deliver suppression-level surge resources for TTSI to pursue a suppression strategy as they will be on the most efficient path toward a restored economy without future lockdowns

Anonymous wrote:
What is Maryland having trouble with exactly? Because as far as I can tell, hospitalizations are still low and manageable...

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Right. Cases per 100,000 is one metric but that's why you have to look at ALL of these with this virus, because of the high-ish number of very mild cases (and I mean truly mild, not just "not hopsitalized".) Because even if you have a very high number of people per 100,000 testing positive, if a significant number of those are asymptomatic or truly mild, you do not need to shut down your economy again.

It's looking like the places (countries, states) that are doing best with COVID are those that are getting their numbers down to two things:

- New cases per 100,000 per day of 1 or fewer
- percent positive of tests at 2% or lower
- testing a large number of people each day

All three things work together to validate that there are few cases going around and that things can get back to normal and you can "reopen your economy".

If we try to "reopen the economy" too early (before those low levels have been reached) we won't be able to use contact tracing when we have outbreaks, and this is going to drag on and on and on and on and on.

Getting down to 5% positivity and 4 new cases per 100,000 per day apparently isn't good enough, which is why MD is having trouble now.

Anonymous wrote:

One question I have is why do the deaths per day continue to be so much higher in NJ and NY if they are doing so well

For instance on 7 day ave - NY is 17, NJ is 20, mass is 16

In comparison, VA is 10 and MD is 10.

Even adjusting populations / lags that doesn’t make sense if those states have been doing well now for month(s)

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:And anyhow, MD isn't close to 4 new cases per 100,000 per day ... more like 14.

I WANT MARYLAND TO BE A GREEN STATE. I want to be able to travel with no quarantine to NY and NJ and Maine.

Its probably not going to happen until it burns through like nj and ny who probably have some levels of herd immunity

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:And anyhow, MD isn't close to 4 new cases per 100,000 per day ... more like 14.

I WANT MARYLAND TO BE A GREEN STATE. I want to be able to travel with no quarantine to NY and NJ and Maine.

Its probably not going to happen until it burns through like nj and ny who probably have some levels of herd immunity

Anonymous wrote:And anyhow, MD isn't close to 4 new cases per 100,000 per day ... more like 14.

I WANT MARYLAND TO BE A GREEN STATE. I want to be able to travel with no quarantine to NY and NJ and Maine.

Anonymous wrote:
Right. Cases per 100,000 is one metric but that's why you have to look at ALL of these with this virus, because of the high-ish number of very mild cases (and I mean truly mild, not just "not hopsitalized".) Because even if you have a very high number of people per 100,000 testing positive, if a significant number of those are asymptomatic or truly mild, you do not need to shut down your economy again.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://www.wbal.com/article/index/471709?title=Gov-Hogan-Announces-Expanded-Statewide-Mask-Order-Issues-Out-of-State-Travel-Advisory

The state is strongly advising against out-of-state travel to states where the positivity rate is above 10%, which, as of Wednesday, includes Alabama, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Louisiana, Nebraska, South Carolina and Texas.

"I directed the Maryland Department of Health to issue a public health advisory for all out-of-state travel. We are strongly advising against any travel to or from states with positivity rates of 10% or higher," Hogan said. "We are very concerned. We can't stop people from crossing the borders. Things are pretty much out of control in some of these states."

This public health advisory applies to personal, family or business travel. Anyone traveling to or from these states should get tested and self-quarantine.

Starting at 5 p.m. Friday, Maryland is expanding the statewide mask order, requiring face masks in public spaces of all businesses and in outdoor public areas whenever it is not possible to maintain physical distancing, Hogan said.

"Wearing a mask is the single-best mitigation strategy that we have to fight the virus, and the science and the data are very clear: It's the best way to keep you and your family safe, to keep people out of the hospital and to keep Maryland open for business," Hogan said.

Hogan still seems focused only on the positivity rate, probably because Maryland's seems low. Not one is talking about the rate of new cases per day per 100,000 -- which is why MD got dinged from so many North Eastern states.

MD's rate of new cases per day is really high, and our (at the moment) low-ish positivity rate is going to rise to reflect that very soon.

The positivity rate is down because lots of non symptom/low risk people are getting tested for travel and college. That was not happening a month ago.

Anonymous wrote:https://www.wbal.com/article/index/471709?title=Gov-Hogan-Announces-Expanded-Statewide-Mask-Order-Issues-Out-of-State-Travel-Advisory

The state is strongly advising against out-of-state travel to states where the positivity rate is above 10%, which, as of Wednesday, includes Alabama, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Louisiana, Nebraska, South Carolina and Texas.

"I directed the Maryland Department of Health to issue a public health advisory for all out-of-state travel. We are strongly advising against any travel to or from states with positivity rates of 10% or higher," Hogan said. "We are very concerned. We can't stop people from crossing the borders. Things are pretty much out of control in some of these states."

This public health advisory applies to personal, family or business travel. Anyone traveling to or from these states should get tested and self-quarantine.

Starting at 5 p.m. Friday, Maryland is expanding the statewide mask order, requiring face masks in public spaces of all businesses and in outdoor public areas whenever it is not possible to maintain physical distancing, Hogan said.

"Wearing a mask is the single-best mitigation strategy that we have to fight the virus, and the science and the data are very clear: It's the best way to keep you and your family safe, to keep people out of the hospital and to keep Maryland open for business," Hogan said.

Hogan still seems focused only on the positivity rate, probably because Maryland's seems low. Not one is talking about the rate of new cases per day per 100,000 -- which is why MD got dinged from so many North Eastern states.

MD's rate of new cases per day is really high, and our (at the moment) low-ish positivity rate is going to rise to reflect that very soon.