Anonymous
Post 08/02/2019 09:56     Subject: Re:What is stopping NoVA from reaching SV level prices?

Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:NoVA isn’t even the most desirable spot locally, not sure why they think they are relevant nationally. When your claim to fame is being close to somewhere such as DC in this case, you should be a bit more humble about your alleged greatness.


So, do you not think the fact that it’s the capital city is significant? Or, you think there shouldn’t be a capital city? Or, that it should be NYC or Palm Beach instead? I mean, DC is so inconvenient for Trump’s golf game.


NoVa isn’t the captial city, DC is. NoVa isn’t even the capital of Virginia is is often pushed around by Richmond which is one of the things that will always hold it back.


You implied that being close to the capital city is no big thing. It is. Short of being part of the city, Arlington is one of the closest. I’m not arguing that it should or will reach SV levels. I think PPs unthread make good points about factors (like Prop 13) that aren’t in play on a large scale here (Arlington County’s tax forgiveness is much more limited in scope, and hasn’t been enough of a factor, historically, to limit housing supply to the extent that prices are affected). But being so close to DC, and Tysons, and now National Landing, is a big draw for people who prioritize short commutes. Current prices reflect that reality.


Once again being close to cool areas isn’t the same as being a cool area. No one in DC says if only I lived closer to Columbia Pike! You are confusing convenient proximity to being somewhere. DC is an important place, Arlington is near to an important place.

That is what is keeping Arlington from being special, the fact that it isn’t.



Exactly. Arlington is just a suburb and nothing more. It's as bad as people who live in Jersey who say they live in NYC. No, being across the river from NYC doesn't mean you're in NYC. P


I mean, it was just a suburb, a desirable one, as the market already shows. But I’d argue that it’s not going to remain just a suburb now that it has Amazon. Doesn’t mean it’s the next SV, but it does portend change. Anyway, the point is Amazon made their choice and I think it will be a fairly significant event influencing how this region grows and changes over time.


Arlington literally has the nation's defense HQ there with the Pentagon... It's still a suburb of DC, whether or not you want to admit it. Amazon isn't going to give it magic "city" powers suddenly...


If I were a betting person, I would bet that Arlington County incorporates as a city at some point in the not-too-distant future. Even if it doesn’t, I don’t know why it matters that it’s outside of the DC boundary, except for tax purposes. It has urban and suburban parts, much like DC. Of course DC will be a power center and the larger city, probably as long as I’m alive, but it might not be the only one, is all.
Anonymous
Post 08/02/2019 09:38     Subject: Re:What is stopping NoVA from reaching SV level prices?

Anonymous wrote:
Arlington literally has the nation's defense HQ there with the Pentagon... It's still a suburb of DC, whether or not you want to admit it. Amazon isn't going to give it magic "city" powers suddenly...


What are city powers? Density, walkability, a concentration of amenities.

Much of Arlington has that already, and HQ2 will mean more of that.


City/county boundaries matter to local politics, to your tax bill, to schools (some people need to be on the DC side of Takoma, say, to keep access to a charter)

But for most things it does not matter.

You can walk to Georgetown from Rosslyn. Try doing that from Deanwood or Shepard Park.
Anonymous
Post 08/02/2019 09:18     Subject: Re:What is stopping NoVA from reaching SV level prices?

Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:NoVA isn’t even the most desirable spot locally, not sure why they think they are relevant nationally. When your claim to fame is being close to somewhere such as DC in this case, you should be a bit more humble about your alleged greatness.


So, do you not think the fact that it’s the capital city is significant? Or, you think there shouldn’t be a capital city? Or, that it should be NYC or Palm Beach instead? I mean, DC is so inconvenient for Trump’s golf game.


NoVa isn’t the captial city, DC is. NoVa isn’t even the capital of Virginia is is often pushed around by Richmond which is one of the things that will always hold it back.


You implied that being close to the capital city is no big thing. It is. Short of being part of the city, Arlington is one of the closest. I’m not arguing that it should or will reach SV levels. I think PPs unthread make good points about factors (like Prop 13) that aren’t in play on a large scale here (Arlington County’s tax forgiveness is much more limited in scope, and hasn’t been enough of a factor, historically, to limit housing supply to the extent that prices are affected). But being so close to DC, and Tysons, and now National Landing, is a big draw for people who prioritize short commutes. Current prices reflect that reality.


Once again being close to cool areas isn’t the same as being a cool area. No one in DC says if only I lived closer to Columbia Pike! You are confusing convenient proximity to being somewhere. DC is an important place, Arlington is near to an important place.

That is what is keeping Arlington from being special, the fact that it isn’t.



Exactly. Arlington is just a suburb and nothing more. It's as bad as people who live in Jersey who say they live in NYC. No, being across the river from NYC doesn't mean you're in NYC. P


I mean, it was just a suburb, a desirable one, as the market already shows. But I’d argue that it’s not going to remain just a suburb now that it has Amazon. Doesn’t mean it’s the next SV, but it does portend change. Anyway, the point is Amazon made their choice and I think it will be a fairly significant event influencing how this region grows and changes over time.


Arlington literally has the nation's defense HQ there with the Pentagon... It's still a suburb of DC, whether or not you want to admit it. Amazon isn't going to give it magic "city" powers suddenly...
Anonymous
Post 08/02/2019 09:12     Subject: Re:What is stopping NoVA from reaching SV level prices?

Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:NoVA isn’t even the most desirable spot locally, not sure why they think they are relevant nationally. When your claim to fame is being close to somewhere such as DC in this case, you should be a bit more humble about your alleged greatness.


So, do you not think the fact that it’s the capital city is significant? Or, you think there shouldn’t be a capital city? Or, that it should be NYC or Palm Beach instead? I mean, DC is so inconvenient for Trump’s golf game.


NoVa isn’t the captial city, DC is. NoVa isn’t even the capital of Virginia is is often pushed around by Richmond which is one of the things that will always hold it back.


You implied that being close to the capital city is no big thing. It is. Short of being part of the city, Arlington is one of the closest. I’m not arguing that it should or will reach SV levels. I think PPs unthread make good points about factors (like Prop 13) that aren’t in play on a large scale here (Arlington County’s tax forgiveness is much more limited in scope, and hasn’t been enough of a factor, historically, to limit housing supply to the extent that prices are affected). But being so close to DC, and Tysons, and now National Landing, is a big draw for people who prioritize short commutes. Current prices reflect that reality.


Once again being close to cool areas isn’t the same as being a cool area. No one in DC says if only I lived closer to Columbia Pike! You are confusing convenient proximity to being somewhere. DC is an important place, Arlington is near to an important place.

That is what is keeping Arlington from being special, the fact that it isn’t.



Exactly. Arlington is just a suburb and nothing more. It's as bad as people who live in Jersey who say they live in NYC. No, being across the river from NYC doesn't mean you're in NYC. P


I mean, it was just a suburb, a desirable one, as the market already shows. But I’d argue that it’s not going to remain just a suburb now that it has Amazon. Doesn’t mean it’s the next SV, but it does portend change. Anyway, the point is Amazon made their choice and I think it will be a fairly significant event influencing how this region grows and changes over time.
Anonymous
Post 08/02/2019 08:59     Subject: Re:What is stopping NoVA from reaching SV level prices?

Anonymous wrote:

Exactly. Arlington is just a suburb and nothing more. It's as bad as people who live in Jersey who say they live in NYC. No, being across the river from NYC doesn't mean you're in NYC. P


There are few neighborhoods in DC as cool as Hoboken, NJ.
Anonymous
Post 08/02/2019 08:58     Subject: Re:What is stopping NoVA from reaching SV level prices?

Anonymous wrote:
Once again being close to cool areas isn’t the same as being a cool area. No one in DC says if only I lived closer to Columbia Pike! You are confusing convenient proximity to being somewhere. DC is an important place, Arlington is near to an important place.

That is what is keeping Arlington from being special, the fact that it isn’t.


I did not say Arlington is cool (whether it is or not is debatable - there are some places/businesses/parks etc in Arlington I like, and plenty of places in DC that are quite boring)

What I said is that proximity to the capital drives the Arlington market. It does. People who work in jobs in DC find Arlington very convenient. And others work in jobs in Arlington that are there because it is close to DC. Which sets Arlington apart from thousands of other places in the USA.

It even gives Arlington a relative edge over Fairfax, Loudoun, etc.


But have fun in cool Fort Totten this weekend.
Anonymous
Post 08/02/2019 07:28     Subject: Re:What is stopping NoVA from reaching SV level prices?

Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:the future center of power of the US will be NYC and Silicon valley, all other areas will be irrelevant and NYC will be permanently on the decline


Honestly, I think that SV isn't sustainable as it is now. The housing market is just too restrictive for firms to grow flexibly, and the infrastructure isn't good enough. Some of that has been alleviated by expansion into SF, but the housing problem continues to get worse with no end in sight.

There are good reasons for industries to agglomerate, and that's not going anywhere. But I think that tech is big enough now to maintain a handful of highly innovative clusters across the country, along with operational clusters in major cities. Being an "innovation cluster" requires access to money (VC), top-level talent, and sources of new ideas to commercialize (e.g. premier STEM research universities as well as existing highly innovative firms). Being an operational center requires an educated workforce as well, but money and ideas can live elsewhere, and firms can be more attuned to things like cost of living with regard to operational center because the cost savings aren't overwhelmed by the need for money and ideas. As the bigger tech firms mature, more and more of the things they do can be operationalized, and that allows them to be peeled away from the expensive innovators geographically.

Seattle, Boston, and NYC are basically already on the innovation cluster path because they're sufficiently strong in all these areas. DC is a pretty obvious candidate to be on it too because of its highly educated workforce, but it has kind of an unusual set of circumstances owing to the role of the government in the economy and the lack of a premier STEM research university. Lots of the ideas generated here aren't commercializable beyond the scale of one large customer, and the research that is demanded by the government that might be commercializable often isn't intrinsically tied to this locale by things like local researchers in academia or existing related industries (NIH being one exception here). We have a sizable VC industry, but in per capita terms it still lags behind places like Austin and the Research Triangle, not to mention the top tier cities listed above.

SV/SF will always be a major tech center, probably even the biggest one, but the cost of living differential between it and the other tech centers will stabilize. The question with Amazon HQ2, I think, is how closely the "operational" tasks that will definitely be performed here (sales and customer management, lobbying) end up being tied to the high-risk, high-reward innovation work. Otherwise, we're just the Nashville campus with more lawyers. From what I know of Amazon, they're very interested in being innovative and data-driven throughout their business model, which is probably a good sign for DC. I'd also pay close attention to things like the scope and success of the new VA Tech campus and changes in the scope of Hopkins' DC operations. Those are the kinds of things that can bring DC a more durable advantage.


Such a great and insightful analysis. Thank you. Out of curiosity - what do you do for a living?
Anonymous
Post 08/02/2019 04:33     Subject: Re:What is stopping NoVA from reaching SV level prices?

Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:NoVA isn’t even the most desirable spot locally, not sure why they think they are relevant nationally. When your claim to fame is being close to somewhere such as DC in this case, you should be a bit more humble about your alleged greatness.


So, do you not think the fact that it’s the capital city is significant? Or, you think there shouldn’t be a capital city? Or, that it should be NYC or Palm Beach instead? I mean, DC is so inconvenient for Trump’s golf game.


NoVa isn’t the captial city, DC is. NoVa isn’t even the capital of Virginia is is often pushed around by Richmond which is one of the things that will always hold it back.


You implied that being close to the capital city is no big thing. It is. Short of being part of the city, Arlington is one of the closest. I’m not arguing that it should or will reach SV levels. I think PPs unthread make good points about factors (like Prop 13) that aren’t in play on a large scale here (Arlington County’s tax forgiveness is much more limited in scope, and hasn’t been enough of a factor, historically, to limit housing supply to the extent that prices are affected). But being so close to DC, and Tysons, and now National Landing, is a big draw for people who prioritize short commutes. Current prices reflect that reality.


Once again being close to cool areas isn’t the same as being a cool area. No one in DC says if only I lived closer to Columbia Pike! You are confusing convenient proximity to being somewhere. DC is an important place, Arlington is near to an important place.

That is what is keeping Arlington from being special, the fact that it isn’t.



Exactly. Arlington is just a suburb and nothing more. It's as bad as people who live in Jersey who say they live in NYC. No, being across the river from NYC doesn't mean you're in NYC. P
Anonymous
Post 08/02/2019 00:14     Subject: What is stopping NoVA from reaching SV level prices?

Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Virgina is for rednecks, DC for bleeding heart liberals and Maryland stiffy old rich farts


LOL I’m a Californian and this is pretty much my impression. Very few of us would want to move to the DC area. NOVA != SFBA


I am from CA and prefer DC and east coast in general. I like so many cities within driving distance and better PT and more walkability on human scale. CA was built for cars, outside of SF and some parts of LA it's hard to find places you can truly live carless. I am also secretly paranoid about earthquakes and I hate how exorbitant it became.
Anonymous
Post 08/01/2019 20:35     Subject: Re:What is stopping NoVA from reaching SV level prices?

I think people are missing the obvious...no venture capital --> no innovative start-ups (your five-person defense contracting firm doesn't count) --> no tech bros. No tech bros means no obscene real estate. Also no filthy rich overseas Chinese people sending their kids to do primary schooling here also means no obscene real estate. Vancouver has the latter. SV has both...which is why prices are so ridiculous. Even if you're doing pretty good at life, it's hard to compete with tech bros and old and/or bottomless pit money.
Anonymous
Post 08/01/2019 20:22     Subject: What is stopping NoVA from reaching SV level prices?

Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Virgina is for rednecks, DC for bleeding heart liberals and Maryland stiffy old rich farts


LOL I’m a Californian and this is pretty much my impression. Very few of us would want to move to the DC area. NOVA != SFBA


This fool doesn't even begin to speak for most Californians. I lived in LA for 18 years until moving here a couple years ago. There seems to be little if anything "rednecky" about Northern Virginia from what I've seen. And the thing about Maryland, well ...sounds like you're conflating Bethesda/Chevy Chase with the entire state.

And yeah, you can slam the DMV area if you want. But let's not forget why so many of us are fleeing Cali in droves: obscenely high taxes, fairly awful schools and a housing market that's hit unaffordable levels for most families.
Anonymous
Post 08/01/2019 19:25     Subject: What is stopping NoVA from reaching SV level prices?

Anonymous wrote:Virgina is for rednecks, DC for bleeding heart liberals and Maryland stiffy old rich farts


LOL I’m a Californian and this is pretty much my impression. Very few of us would want to move to the DC area. NOVA != SFBA
Anonymous
Post 08/01/2019 18:25     Subject: What is stopping NoVA from reaching SV level prices?

Virgina is for rednecks, DC for bleeding heart liberals and Maryland stiffy old rich farts
Anonymous
Post 08/01/2019 18:21     Subject: Re:What is stopping NoVA from reaching SV level prices?

Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:NoVA isn’t even the most desirable spot locally, not sure why they think they are relevant nationally. When your claim to fame is being close to somewhere such as DC in this case, you should be a bit more humble about your alleged greatness.


So, do you not think the fact that it’s the capital city is significant? Or, you think there shouldn’t be a capital city? Or, that it should be NYC or Palm Beach instead? I mean, DC is so inconvenient for Trump’s golf game.


NoVa isn’t the captial city, DC is. NoVa isn’t even the capital of Virginia is is often pushed around by Richmond which is one of the things that will always hold it back.


You implied that being close to the capital city is no big thing. It is. Short of being part of the city, Arlington is one of the closest. I’m not arguing that it should or will reach SV levels. I think PPs unthread make good points about factors (like Prop 13) that aren’t in play on a large scale here (Arlington County’s tax forgiveness is much more limited in scope, and hasn’t been enough of a factor, historically, to limit housing supply to the extent that prices are affected). But being so close to DC, and Tysons, and now National Landing, is a big draw for people who prioritize short commutes. Current prices reflect that reality.


Once again being close to cool areas isn’t the same as being a cool area. No one in DC says if only I lived closer to Columbia Pike! You are confusing convenient proximity to being somewhere. DC is an important place, Arlington is near to an important place.

That is what is keeping Arlington from being special, the fact that it isn’t.


OMG this, shut this Arlington fool up.
Anonymous
Post 08/01/2019 18:20     Subject: Re:What is stopping NoVA from reaching SV level prices?

Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:NoVA isn’t even the most desirable spot locally, not sure why they think they are relevant nationally. When your claim to fame is being close to somewhere such as DC in this case, you should be a bit more humble about your alleged greatness.


So, do you not think the fact that it’s the capital city is significant? Or, you think there shouldn’t be a capital city? Or, that it should be NYC or Palm Beach instead? I mean, DC is so inconvenient for Trump’s golf game.


NoVa isn’t the captial city, DC is. NoVa isn’t even the capital of Virginia is is often pushed around by Richmond which is one of the things that will always hold it back.


Much of Arlington is closer to the White House than many parts of the District. Not sure why the ability to vote for or against Mayor Bowser is a big deal to the desirability of living in Arlington.


Much of the parking garage at Nats Park is closer to important parts of the stadium. Nobody rather be inside the parking garage during the game.