Because you asked and Naviance 2019 loaded:

Don’t flame if my math is wrong somewhere. I did it on the back of a sheet of paper.

In state applied/ accepted/ attending:
UVA: 333/152/53. (48% admit rate and In line with prior years)
WM: 189/153/40 (80% admit rate and in line with prior years)
VT: 99/71/21 (the huge surprise. Normally 200-250 kids apply. But only low 20s attend each year. So their attend number stayed stable).

Also:

GMU 17
VCU. 9 (their guaranteed admit med school program is popular at TJ)

So: 114 to UVA/WM/VT and 142 in state (although I didn’t pull every state school, no one to CNU)

Pitt: 116/113/25. Making it the 3rd most popular school and this the first year more kids applied to Pitt than VT and more kids attend Pitt than VT. They give amazing merit aid to TJ kids, the counselors love them, and rolling admissions).

39 to Ivys:
Cornell topping the list at 15 (it’s always high, b/c engineering)
8 to Harvard
5 to Yale
4 to Princeton
2 to Columbia
1 to Dartmouth
0 to Brown

29 to Almost Ivy’s:
8 to MIT
1 to Cal Tech
12 to Chicago, out of 15 accepted (!!!— that’s a huge number for a non-engineering/CS school)
4 each to Stanford and Duke


75 to the T10 Engineering schools not already listed:
17 to Michigan
6 to GT
10 to Berkeley
15 to CMU
13 to UI-CU
10 to Purdue
4 to UT Austin

14 total to the other T20 National Us not already listed put together, with 1-2 per school, except 3 to UCLA and 4 to WashU

2 to Williams. I didn’t pullall of the top SLACs, but kids were admitted to, but are not attending Amherst, Swarthmore, and Davidson.

Other places I spot checked b/c I know kids going: Grinnell (1), Kenyon (1), CWRU (3), Ohio State (2), Penn State (6)

So that’s 339 of the 425. The rest are likely to be 1-2 students each to T50 schools, a few SLACs, and T10-T20 engineering. Probably at least 10-12 at other UCs combined, although I didn’t pull each one.

Make of it what you will. I’m shocked that VT went from 243 apps in 2018 to 99 in 2019. And had fewer students enroll than Pitt for the first time. And had fewer students apply than Pitt, Michigan or GT. Especially in a year when VT overenrolled. What I’m hearing (based on a sample size of about 4) is that kids aren’t filling out the Coalition app and writing the extra essays unless they really want VT. They are using Pitt as their safety instead.

Anyway, looks like a great year to me. But, have at it.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I did end of the year recitals and banquets and senior nights for two TJ kids this year. And for most, where the kids were attending was listed. So, I’ve seen the lost in bits and pieces.

A few observations.

Kids who don’t know they want Vat aren’t even applying because it requires the coalition app. And everything else TJ does for colleges is common app based. So, kids who might have put a safety app into VT are applying to Pitt instead.

Speaking of which, Pitt is increasingly attractive for TJ kids. Pittsburgh has really turned itself around, they take the common app, have rolling admissions and you can take some classes at CMU. Plus, they literally take 99% of TJ applicants, and rumor is they give enough merit aid to TJ kids to get the price down to VT— or less. My kid is applying now. If VAt did common app, he’d check the box. But unless Pitt rejects him in October, he has his safety school, and no desire to start over with the Coalition. It sucks the one of the top tier VA schools hold out for a second round of essays, and a second application.

TJ also has a lot of kids who can afford in state but not full rode private. And once you get below the top 25% of the class going to Ivy’s and taking out loans, kids are shopping for merit aid to bring the cost down to in state. And/or are applying for T10 engineering/CS. 2019 numbers aren’t up yet, but in the last 4 years, there were 6 applications to St. Olaf, 5 acceptances, 4 attending. That’s a lot of merit money. Oberlin and Grinnell also attract relatively few applications— but more than 5 years ago. CWRU is another biggie. All schools with great merit.

TJ has 110 enrolling in Ivy's?

No. But top 25% has a decent shot at an Ivy. Everyone else can forget it. And if you roll in top 5 engineering/CS schools like CMU, Chicago, Stanford, MIT, Cal Tech you probably are hitting 80-100 kids.

^^ should say CMU, Berkeley, MIT, Cal Tech, (I’d add Michigan engineering), plus Chicago, Stanford, Duke...

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I did end of the year recitals and banquets and senior nights for two TJ kids this year. And for most, where the kids were attending was listed. So, I’ve seen the lost in bits and pieces.

A few observations.

Kids who don’t know they want Vat aren’t even applying because it requires the coalition app. And everything else TJ does for colleges is common app based. So, kids who might have put a safety app into VT are applying to Pitt instead.

Speaking of which, Pitt is increasingly attractive for TJ kids. Pittsburgh has really turned itself around, they take the common app, have rolling admissions and you can take some classes at CMU. Plus, they literally take 99% of TJ applicants, and rumor is they give enough merit aid to TJ kids to get the price down to VT— or less. My kid is applying now. If VAt did common app, he’d check the box. But unless Pitt rejects him in October, he has his safety school, and no desire to start over with the Coalition. It sucks the one of the top tier VA schools hold out for a second round of essays, and a second application.

TJ also has a lot of kids who can afford in state but not full rode private. And once you get below the top 25% of the class going to Ivy’s and taking out loans, kids are shopping for merit aid to bring the cost down to in state. And/or are applying for T10 engineering/CS. 2019 numbers aren’t up yet, but in the last 4 years, there were 6 applications to St. Olaf, 5 acceptances, 4 attending. That’s a lot of merit money. Oberlin and Grinnell also attract relatively few applications— but more than 5 years ago. CWRU is another biggie. All schools with great merit.

TJ has 110 enrolling in Ivy's?

No. But top 25% has a decent shot at an Ivy. Everyone else can forget it. And if you roll in top 5 engineering/CS schools like CMU, Chicago, Stanford, MIT, Cal Tech you probably are hitting 80-100 kids.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I did end of the year recitals and banquets and senior nights for two TJ kids this year. And for most, where the kids were attending was listed. So, I’ve seen the lost in bits and pieces.

A few observations.

Kids who don’t know they want Vat aren’t even applying because it requires the coalition app. And everything else TJ does for colleges is common app based. So, kids who might have put a safety app into VT are applying to Pitt instead.

Speaking of which, Pitt is increasingly attractive for TJ kids. Pittsburgh has really turned itself around, they take the common app, have rolling admissions and you can take some classes at CMU. Plus, they literally take 99% of TJ applicants, and rumor is they give enough merit aid to TJ kids to get the price down to VT— or less. My kid is applying now. If VAt did common app, he’d check the box. But unless Pitt rejects him in October, he has his safety school, and no desire to start over with the Coalition. It sucks the one of the top tier VA schools hold out for a second round of essays, and a second application.

TJ also has a lot of kids who can afford in state but not full rode private. And once you get below the top 25% of the class going to Ivy’s and taking out loans, kids are shopping for merit aid to bring the cost down to in state. And/or are applying for T10 engineering/CS. 2019 numbers aren’t up yet, but in the last 4 years, there were 6 applications to St. Olaf, 5 acceptances, 4 attending. That’s a lot of merit money. Oberlin and Grinnell also attract relatively few applications— but more than 5 years ago. CWRU is another biggie. All schools with great merit.

TJ has 110 enrolling in Ivy's?

It looks like about 33 in Bull Elephant (with 5% reporting).

Seems to be consistent with the 36 from last year that supplied their info. It seems roughly 8-10% enroll in Ivy's if you assume the reporting is random.

And real top targets would be Ivy + MIT + Stanford + Caltech. That adds another 10 for 2019 for a total of 43 with 75% reporting. That is very good.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I did end of the year recitals and banquets and senior nights for two TJ kids this year. And for most, where the kids were attending was listed. So, I’ve seen the lost in bits and pieces.

A few observations.

Kids who don’t know they want Vat aren’t even applying because it requires the coalition app. And everything else TJ does for colleges is common app based. So, kids who might have put a safety app into VT are applying to Pitt instead.

Speaking of which, Pitt is increasingly attractive for TJ kids. Pittsburgh has really turned itself around, they take the common app, have rolling admissions and you can take some classes at CMU. Plus, they literally take 99% of TJ applicants, and rumor is they give enough merit aid to TJ kids to get the price down to VT— or less. My kid is applying now. If VAt did common app, he’d check the box. But unless Pitt rejects him in October, he has his safety school, and no desire to start over with the Coalition. It sucks the one of the top tier VA schools hold out for a second round of essays, and a second application.

TJ also has a lot of kids who can afford in state but not full rode private. And once you get below the top 25% of the class going to Ivy’s and taking out loans, kids are shopping for merit aid to bring the cost down to in state. And/or are applying for T10 engineering/CS. 2019 numbers aren’t up yet, but in the last 4 years, there were 6 applications to St. Olaf, 5 acceptances, 4 attending. That’s a lot of merit money. Oberlin and Grinnell also attract relatively few applications— but more than 5 years ago. CWRU is another biggie. All schools with great merit.

TJ has 110 enrolling in Ivy's?

It looks like about 33 in Bull Elephant (with 5% reporting).

Seems to be consistent with the 36 from last year that supplied their info. It seems roughly 8-10% enroll in Ivy's if you assume the reporting is random.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I did end of the year recitals and banquets and senior nights for two TJ kids this year. And for most, where the kids were attending was listed. So, I’ve seen the lost in bits and pieces.

A few observations.

Kids who don’t know they want Vat aren’t even applying because it requires the coalition app. And everything else TJ does for colleges is common app based. So, kids who might have put a safety app into VT are applying to Pitt instead.

Speaking of which, Pitt is increasingly attractive for TJ kids. Pittsburgh has really turned itself around, they take the common app, have rolling admissions and you can take some classes at CMU. Plus, they literally take 99% of TJ applicants, and rumor is they give enough merit aid to TJ kids to get the price down to VT— or less. My kid is applying now. If VAt did common app, he’d check the box. But unless Pitt rejects him in October, he has his safety school, and no desire to start over with the Coalition. It sucks the one of the top tier VA schools hold out for a second round of essays, and a second application.

TJ also has a lot of kids who can afford in state but not full rode private. And once you get below the top 25% of the class going to Ivy’s and taking out loans, kids are shopping for merit aid to bring the cost down to in state. And/or are applying for T10 engineering/CS. 2019 numbers aren’t up yet, but in the last 4 years, there were 6 applications to St. Olaf, 5 acceptances, 4 attending. That’s a lot of merit money. Oberlin and Grinnell also attract relatively few applications— but more than 5 years ago. CWRU is another biggie. All schools with great merit.

TJ has 110 enrolling in Ivy's?

It looks like about 33 in Bull Elephant (with 5% reporting).

I think you meant with 75% indicating where they will attend.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I did end of the year recitals and banquets and senior nights for two TJ kids this year. And for most, where the kids were attending was listed. So, I’ve seen the lost in bits and pieces.

A few observations.

Kids who don’t know they want Vat aren’t even applying because it requires the coalition app. And everything else TJ does for colleges is common app based. So, kids who might have put a safety app into VT are applying to Pitt instead.

Speaking of which, Pitt is increasingly attractive for TJ kids. Pittsburgh has really turned itself around, they take the common app, have rolling admissions and you can take some classes at CMU. Plus, they literally take 99% of TJ applicants, and rumor is they give enough merit aid to TJ kids to get the price down to VT— or less. My kid is applying now. If VAt did common app, he’d check the box. But unless Pitt rejects him in October, he has his safety school, and no desire to start over with the Coalition. It sucks the one of the top tier VA schools hold out for a second round of essays, and a second application.

TJ also has a lot of kids who can afford in state but not full rode private. And once you get below the top 25% of the class going to Ivy’s and taking out loans, kids are shopping for merit aid to bring the cost down to in state. And/or are applying for T10 engineering/CS. 2019 numbers aren’t up yet, but in the last 4 years, there were 6 applications to St. Olaf, 5 acceptances, 4 attending. That’s a lot of merit money. Oberlin and Grinnell also attract relatively few applications— but more than 5 years ago. CWRU is another biggie. All schools with great merit.

TJ has 110 enrolling in Ivy's?

It looks like about 33 in Bull Elephant (with 5% reporting).

Anonymous wrote:I did end of the year recitals and banquets and senior nights for two TJ kids this year. And for most, where the kids were attending was listed. So, I’ve seen the lost in bits and pieces.

A few observations.

Kids who don’t know they want Vat aren’t even applying because it requires the coalition app. And everything else TJ does for colleges is common app based. So, kids who might have put a safety app into VT are applying to Pitt instead.

Speaking of which, Pitt is increasingly attractive for TJ kids. Pittsburgh has really turned itself around, they take the common app, have rolling admissions and you can take some classes at CMU. Plus, they literally take 99% of TJ applicants, and rumor is they give enough merit aid to TJ kids to get the price down to VT— or less. My kid is applying now. If VAt did common app, he’d check the box. But unless Pitt rejects him in October, he has his safety school, and no desire to start over with the Coalition. It sucks the one of the top tier VA schools hold out for a second round of essays, and a second application.

TJ also has a lot of kids who can afford in state but not full rode private. And once you get below the top 25% of the class going to Ivy’s and taking out loans, kids are shopping for merit aid to bring the cost down to in state. And/or are applying for T10 engineering/CS. 2019 numbers aren’t up yet, but in the last 4 years, there were 6 applications to St. Olaf, 5 acceptances, 4 attending. That’s a lot of merit money. Oberlin and Grinnell also attract relatively few applications— but more than 5 years ago. CWRU is another biggie. All schools with great merit.

TJ has 110 enrolling in Ivy's?

I did end of the year recitals and banquets and senior nights for two TJ kids this year. And for most, where the kids were attending was listed. So, I’ve seen the lost in bits and pieces.

A few observations.

Kids who don’t know they want Vat aren’t even applying because it requires the coalition app. And everything else TJ does for colleges is common app based. So, kids who might have put a safety app into VT are applying to Pitt instead.

Speaking of which, Pitt is increasingly attractive for TJ kids. Pittsburgh has really turned itself around, they take the common app, have rolling admissions and you can take some classes at CMU. Plus, they literally take 99% of TJ applicants, and rumor is they give enough merit aid to TJ kids to get the price down to VT— or less. My kid is applying now. If VAt did common app, he’d check the box. But unless Pitt rejects him in October, he has his safety school, and no desire to start over with the Coalition. It sucks the one of the top tier VA schools hold out for a second round of essays, and a second application.

TJ also has a lot of kids who can afford in state but not full rode private. And once you get below the top 25% of the class going to Ivy’s and taking out loans, kids are shopping for merit aid to bring the cost down to in state. And/or are applying for T10 engineering/CS. 2019 numbers aren’t up yet, but in the last 4 years, there were 6 applications to St. Olaf, 5 acceptances, 4 attending. That’s a lot of merit money. Oberlin and Grinnell also attract relatively few applications— but more than 5 years ago. CWRU is another biggie. All schools with great merit.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Here is the downward trend for TJ students going to Virginia state schools:

179 in 2015
170 in 2016
161 in 2017
140 in 2018

Not all reported for 2019, but trend is toward 130.

It's simple folks. Most TJ grads consider VTech to be below safety and unfortunately, UVA sucks for CS and engineering so more and more TJ kids are opting to go OOS. My recent TJ kid opted to go to Berkeley.

It may be a consequence of more TJ grads getting rejected to these schools. We need to see the applied/accepted/enrolled data.

Putting different sources together, UVA is something like 348 applied, 197 accepted, and 37 indicated they will attend (75% of graduates reporting). VT is 243 applied, 182 accepted, 16 indicated they will attend (again with 75% of graduates reporting).

Overall yield for UVA in-state is about 58%. If you assume about 50 attend UVA (based on the Bull Elephant data 37 attending with 75% reporting), then UVA yield for TJ grads is about 25%. It could be that this year's TJ yield is low for some reason, but you can see yield is still going to be well below the in-state average.

For VT, overall yield for in-state students is about 46%. If you assume about 21 attend VT (based on the Bull Elephant data of 16 attending with 75% reporting), then VT yield for TJ grads is about 12%. Again, it could well be that this year's TJ yield is low for some reason, but yield is still well below in-state average.

I think the poster above had it right. A lot of these kids have good options and it appears more and more of them are choosing to go elsewhere.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Here is the downward trend for TJ students going to Virginia state schools:

179 in 2015
170 in 2016
161 in 2017
140 in 2018

Not all reported for 2019, but trend is toward 130.

It's simple folks. Most TJ grads consider VTech to be below safety and unfortunately, UVA sucks for CS and engineering so more and more TJ kids are opting to go OOS. My recent TJ kid opted to go to Berkeley.

It may be a consequence of more TJ grads getting rejected to these schools. We need to see the applied/accepted/enrolled data.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The Bull Elephant does not have complete data. I would guess that many of the approximately 100 left off the list are attending a Va school

That doesn't seem likely. It is about 75% of the class. Why would there be such an extreme bias in those who don't report?

Because people on this board and at the school have determined that UVa and VT are not sufficiently prestigious outcomes after TJ, never mind the value proposition. The ones who are not reporting are not all Stamford and MIT, sorry.

No one said they are all Stanford and MIT. But what would lead us to believe the 75% that did report aren't a representative sample?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The Bull Elephant does not have complete data. I would guess that many of the approximately 100 left off the list are attending a Va school

That doesn't seem likely. It is about 75% of the class. Why would there be such an extreme bias in those who don't report?

Because people on this board and at the school have determined that UVa and VT are not sufficiently prestigious outcomes after TJ, never mind the value proposition. The ones who are not reporting are not all Stamford and MIT, sorry.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Here is the downward trend for TJ students going to Virginia state schools:

179 in 2015
170 in 2016
161 in 2017
140 in 2018

Not all reported for 2019, but trend is toward 130.

It's simple folks. Most TJ grads consider VTech to be below safety and unfortunately, UVA sucks for CS and engineering so more and more TJ kids are opting to go OOS. My recent TJ kid opted to go to Berkeley.

There could be something to that. With about 75% of TJ students reporting in the Bull Elephant, 16 indicated they were enrolling at VT in 2019, down from 38 in 2018. 37 were enrolling at UVA, down from 72 in 2018.

http://thebullelephant.com/college-destinations-for-tjhsst-class-of-2019

208 going out of state, 98 in-state Virginia. TJ students are voting with their feet.

According to the Bull Elephant, only three Virginia schools enroll a significant numbers of TJ grads. UVA with 37, W&M with 28, and VT with 16. Pitt (16), Michigan (14), Cornell (13), Carnegie Mellon (12), Illinois (11), Purdue (9), Berkeley (8), and Chicago (8) have as many or more than any other Virginia schools.

VA just doesn't have a very good engineering universities. VT is just not a school that TJ kids want to aspire to.

VT has a comprehensive engineering program, but it is so large that it does not appear elite enough for TJ grads. UVA is relatively small, but it is far from comprehensive. If you magically had Berkeley in Virginia, it would capture a lot more TJ grads than UVA and VT combined.

Anonymous wrote:The Bull Elephant does not have complete data. I would guess that many of the approximately 100 left off the list are attending a Va school

That doesn't seem likely. It is about 75% of the class. Why would there be such an extreme bias in those who don't report?