Anonymous wrote:Didn’t read the older parts of the thread, so may be addressed.
What are the current odds of the big one in CA in the next 10 years?
Big one as being the Magnitude 8 on the San Andreas? The one with 10 m of rupture?
That event occurs approximately every 200-300 years. So, in a 10 year span, it is about 5%; maybe a little higher, because it has been about 170 years since the last one.
What we have learned is the only threat is not the big one, but the pretty big ones, like the one last night. Fortunately, that occurred in the middle of nowhere. If an earthquake like that occurred in a city, it would be bad. And similar earthquakes have occurred on the Hayward fault (NoCal/Bay Area), and So Cal (Northridge, Long Beach, San Fernando -- all populated today). Other examples in unpopulated areas are Landers (1992), Superstition Hills (1987 I think), Kern County (Bakersfield).