Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My expectations are VERY low but curious anyways. No sibling preference, 6th grade, pretty sure we'd make the move after the year starts.

Latin 2nd
Latin Cooper
Deal (OOB)

To clarify: the low expectations are for our chances to get in anywhere, not related to the Lottery Nerd's abilities to predict.

FYI went to a Deal open house a few weeks ago and there will be no lottery spots.

Every year I hear Deal is full to the rafters and then I meet another kid in our OOB neighborhood who got in (after NOT going to a feeder). Figured it was worth a shot, but yes, expectations are very low.

There are also families every year who say they’ve gotten into desirable schools, such as Deal, through the lottery, but they’re actually bending or breaking residency requirements. Just important to keep in mind when it feels like there are abundant examples of OOB kids at a school that historically offers few or no spots.

What about 8th grade chances, with a sibling at Latin Cooper, otherwise no preferences:
Latin 2nd
Latin Cooper
Eliot Hine
Stuart Hobson
Jefferson

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:PK4 no preference, odds of acceptance by August:

LT
Maury
SWS
Payne
Brent
Peabody
Chisholm
JOW

OP here.

LT - 10%
Maury - 0%
SWS - 0%
Payne - 0%
Brent - 0% (this was even true last year in the swing space)
Peabody - 23%
Chisholm - 0%
JOW - 59%
Nothing - 8%

With JOW finishing its reno I would expect chances there to be lower and the odds of nothing to increase.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Hardy had 2 lottery spots each for 7th and 8th last school year. Does anyone know how many for the upcoming school year?

OP here. I don't know the answer to your question, but as the Lottery Nerd, I feel the need to let you know that while yes, they only offered 2 seats in the initial lottery last year, your chances were still decent because they made some waitlist offers, giving you a 43% chance of acceptance in 7th and a 16% chance in 8th last year.

Thanks, OP. Does that mean 43%/16% chance of offer by October or by results day?

OP again. By October. Actually, they had made all offers by August (didn't make any offers after that).

I would say that my two most important takeaways from studying lottery data are:

1) Outside of PK3 and middle school/high school entry years, for all the other years, day of results are nearly meaningless. Waitlist offers dominate. Don't get hung up on your initial result.

2) Everyone should STRONGLY consider being open to changing schools in September or October. For a lot of schools/years, this doubles or even triples your likelihood of getting in.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Hardy had 2 lottery spots each for 7th and 8th last school year. Does anyone know how many for the upcoming school year?

OP here. I don't know the answer to your question, but as the Lottery Nerd, I feel the need to let you know that while yes, they only offered 2 seats in the initial lottery last year, your chances were still decent because they made some waitlist offers, giving you a 43% chance of acceptance in 7th and a 16% chance in 8th last year.

Thanks, OP. Does that mean 43%/16% chance of offer by October or by results day?

Anonymous wrote:Hardy had 2 lottery spots each for 7th and 8th last school year. Does anyone know how many for the upcoming school year?

OP here. I don't know the answer to your question, but as the Lottery Nerd, I feel the need to let you know that while yes, they only offered 2 seats in the initial lottery last year, your chances were still decent because they made some waitlist offers, giving you a 43% chance of acceptance in 7th and a 16% chance in 8th last year.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My expectations are VERY low but curious anyways. No sibling preference, 6th grade, pretty sure we'd make the move after the year starts.

Latin 2nd
Latin Cooper
Deal (OOB)

To clarify: the low expectations are for our chances to get in anywhere, not related to the Lottery Nerd's abilities to predict.

FYI went to a Deal open house a few weeks ago and there will be no lottery spots.

Every year I hear Deal is full to the rafters and then I meet another kid in our OOB neighborhood who got in (after NOT going to a feeder). Figured it was worth a shot, but yes, expectations are very low.

I also know two families who had a kid go to Deal from our neighborhood, no feeder.

In one case, her parents explicitly told us that she had a pretty serious IEP and was placed not by lottery but by the special education system. I don't know a lot of details about it, but I wouldn't be surprised if that's how the other kid got in as well. I wouldn't say this is common, but I don't think it's rare, and may also describe what happened in your neighborhood. I mean, they've only taken 3 kids via the lottery TOTAL over the past three years. Seems unlikely you know all of them.

Anonymous wrote:My expectations are VERY low but curious anyways. No sibling preference, 6th grade, pretty sure we'd make the move after the year starts.

Latin 2nd
Latin Cooper
Deal (OOB)

OP here:

Latin 2nd - 0%
Latin Cooper - 1%
Deal (OOB) - 0%

As I mentioned on a previous response, it's hard with Latin after 5th grade, because they let in a tiny number of kids each year (2-3) off the waitlist, but for charter schools, I don't have a breakdown of the waitlist by preference group. My guess is that all or nearly all of those kids are siblings, but even if they were all no preference (unlikely) you're only at 1% because the wait is so long (300+). If half of them are siblings, you're at 0%.

For Latin Cooper, we only have two real years of data (the first two years they offered a ton of seats, very different), and they're in a similar spot, but the waitlists are a little shorter (under 300) and they've let as many as 6 kids in, so assuming at least a couple of those were non siblings, you've got your 1%.

Deal never offers seats in the initial lottery (not a single one in the 9 years of data we have), but does usually let in a couple of kids from the waitlist (0-7 in the last five years). Overall chance about 1%, but with that good a number, you're probably in at Latin Cooper, so 0%.

Anonymous wrote:PK4 no preference, odds of acceptance by August:

LT
Maury
SWS
Payne
Brent
Peabody
Chisholm
JOW

OP here.

LT - 10%
Maury - 0%
SWS - 0%
Payne - 0%
Brent - 0% (this was even true last year in the swing space)
Peabody - 23%
Chisholm - 0%
JOW - 59%
Nothing - 8%

Hardy had 2 lottery spots each for 7th and 8th last school year. Does anyone know how many for the upcoming school year?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My expectations are VERY low but curious anyways. No sibling preference, 6th grade, pretty sure we'd make the move after the year starts.

Latin 2nd
Latin Cooper
Deal (OOB)

To clarify: the low expectations are for our chances to get in anywhere, not related to the Lottery Nerd's abilities to predict.

FYI went to a Deal open house a few weeks ago and there will be no lottery spots.

Every year I hear Deal is full to the rafters and then I meet another kid in our OOB neighborhood who got in (after NOT going to a feeder). Figured it was worth a shot, but yes, expectations are very low.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My expectations are VERY low but curious anyways. No sibling preference, 6th grade, pretty sure we'd make the move after the year starts.

Latin 2nd
Latin Cooper
Deal (OOB)

To clarify: the low expectations are for our chances to get in anywhere, not related to the Lottery Nerd's abilities to predict.

FYI went to a Deal open house a few weeks ago and there will be no lottery spots.

Anonymous wrote:My expectations are VERY low but curious anyways. No sibling preference, 6th grade, pretty sure we'd make the move after the year starts.

Latin 2nd
Latin Cooper
Deal (OOB)

To clarify: the low expectations are for our chances to get in anywhere, not related to the Lottery Nerd's abilities to predict.

My expectations are VERY low but curious anyways. No sibling preference, 6th grade, pretty sure we'd make the move after the year starts.

Latin 2nd
Latin Cooper
Deal (OOB)

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is a super fun thread! Thanks, OP!

I’ll play!

5th:
- Latin 2nd st
- Latin cooper
- Basis

Would move after school starts

You are so welcome! This is a fun one because I'd guess there's a whoooooole lot of 5th grade lists that either look like this or start like this.

- Latin 2nd st - 15%
- Latin Cooper - 14%
- Basis - 28%
- Nothing - 43%

These Latin percentages are way too high if no sibling. Are you not taking sibling preference into account? Because when I say too high, I mean WAY too high. The Cooper one is especially off.

OP here - I'm taking sibling preference into account. You can check my math if you'd like, happy to be proven wrong in my methods, and recognizing this is NOT perfect, but just the best I can do with pretty easy math. Looking just at Latin 2nd St, 5th grade entry, as a sample, and only looking at no preference matches:

Year Matches WL Offers - Oct Chance (offers over applications)
21-22 56 288 13. 20%
22-23 45 323 6 14%
23-24 40 343 11 13%
24-25 46 429 36 17%
25-26 52 501 9 11%

That averages out to a 15% shot.

Now, that is certainly trending down - as I mentioned, I'm not taking into account trends, just five year averages, so maybe that's the disconnect?

I did an analysis of MS lottery chances in the fall. These percentages look right to me. Last year's 4th grade class and this year's 4th grade class are rather large, so unfortunately I think PP's chances will be closer to the 25-26 numbers than the average over years.

New poster here! This is fun but 100% agree that for this request (and likely many others) the five year average principle is going to seriously inflate the numbers. Realistically with no sibling preference for second street you’re looking at roughly 8-9% chance. Cooper is similar (slightly lower in 25-26 because of lots of siblings which may reflect younger families due to the newer campus, or may just be random).