Anonymous wrote:I do not proclaim to have any idea how this election is going to go either way (I'm a pessimistic Dem voter) but I do have this gut feeling that the environment is ripe for some surprises, some unexpected results the polls never saw coming.

Anonymous wrote:This thread is unhinged - I voted for Harris over two weeks ago but Harris isn’t winning Ohio, Florida or Iowa. Some of y’all are going to have a very difficult Tuesday night.

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Anonymous wrote:It’s all fake. A last minute Hail Mary.

Ahem.

Anonymous wrote:I just want to note that while this poll is an outlier compared to the Emerson poll (why is Emerson polling Iowa? I'm curious about this), it's not an outlier for Seltzer's own polling.


In June before Biden dropped out (but I think post-debate) Selzer polled Trump as +18 over Biden in Iowa.

In September Selzer released a poll that had Trump up in Iowa by 4. This was considered and outlier at the time and most people expected Trump to win Iowa by 8+.

And now this poll. Has Selzer been tracking a growing that other pollsters have missed?

We find out in 3 days.

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Anonymous wrote:It’s all fake. A last minute Hail Mary.

Ahem.

Also that poll was spiked for transparent reasons. The Buttigieg campaign complained that he had not been offered as an option to all poll respondents and Selzer looked into it and found a glitch in software that was causing interviewers to leave Buttigieg off in some calls. It was a big and expensive deal to spike the poll at that stage but Selzer and the Des Moines Register did it anyway because they did not want the spectre of improper polling to be attached to their good name.

Now consider that most pollsters are nowhere near as transparent as Selzer and that glitches like that happen and don't get disclosed, and also look at the obvious herding that supposedly legitimate pollsters have been doing in recent weeks.

Selzer has integrity as a pollster and that's why people are taking this seriously.

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Anonymous wrote:It’s all fake. A last minute Hail Mary.

Ahem.

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Anonymous wrote:Lol if you believe this. Have you been to Iowa? I grew up there. The Democrats are dead to those people. I have family members that were Democrats for years, but are now loyal Trump supporters. No chance those people are backing Kamala Harris.

Did you see the post above yours? Ann Seltzer polls are usually very accurate.

Ok. Everyone is wrong sometimes, and here, direct experience strongly indicates this poll is very wrong. It is also an outlier among polls. For all I know, Ann Seltzer got a huge payday to sacrifice some credibility to put out good numbers for Harris. In any event, I do not believe it is accurate. This is based on the experience of having grown up there and having watched people abandon the Democrats first hand.

A Democrat got 47.5% of the vote for Iowa governor in 2018.

That’s a lot different than a national democrat. And kamala harris is a bottom of the barrel national democrat at that. No chance there has been a huge swing in her favor.

Copium

Like i said, you’re free to think whatever you want. Experience tells me you are wrong and Seltzer is wrong.

Except Seltzer has been spot on for the last 12+ years, even as she’s contrasted other polls. I tend to lean on her reliability as a good indicator of where things are vs. your gut.

That’s your choice. I believe she is wrong. I would not even be surprised to learn she got paid big money to put out a poll like this. I fully expect these types of organizations to throw out some last minute polls purporting to show that Kamala Harris is riding high as a last ditch effort to try to push her across the line. It is all BS by a very partisan set at this point.

NP. Was she wrong when she called Iowa for the obese orange man in 2016 and 2020?

She is now claiming there has been an astronomic 11 point shift leftward in one election cycle. That doesn’t happen with the political polarization in the country. Nothing in the 2022 midterms showed that Democrats were gaining ground in Iowa.

Post-Dobbs, new Democratic candidate, post J6, and voters have had 4 more years to "get to know" Donald Trump.

Plus it might not be an 11 point shift. Her margin for error is 3.4%. So it could be 5-8 point shift which is not actually weird. A lot of places saw a similar swing between Obama in 2012 and Trump in 2016.

Anonymous wrote:The Kansas five point shift to the left that was disclosed last week was foretelling a massive shift in the electorate that the swing state polling has totally missed.

Fact is, Trump was awful for farmers, older women and particularly white women are outraged by Dobbs and the rights THEY enjoyed since 1973. No, they are not going back and are voting accordingly.

Factor in the "Republicans for Harris" and the various national security endorsements away from Trump and there is a huge untapped voice that will either stay home, leave the top of the ticket blank, or yes, vote for Harris.

Will she win Iowa? Possible.
Does this poll bode well for the 7 swing states? Absolutely.

I will maintain that there is a state or two that will flip to Harris, totally under the radar. Iowa was one of them, and for me, Alaska is the other (as they don't want to become part of Russia)

Anonymous wrote:There’s no way Iowa is flipping blue. Democrats can keep dreaming and probably should be more worried about the NY tri state and New England as well as Virginia because the Eastern seaboard is not a lock for Kamala

Anonymous wrote:It’s all fake. A last minute Hail Mary.

Anonymous wrote:It’s all fake. A last minute Hail Mary.