Anonymous wrote:May I summarize what is happening here?

Top stat kids are in a position where they need to apply 20+ colleges in order to get in anywhere they feel they deserved to be in.

Top stat kids (top 10% of any high schools)are more or less applying the same list of schools- top50 U and top 30 LAC. And schools in the big cities (Boston, NYC, LA)and nice towns get very popular.

Their application more or less all look similar.
It’s literally about who gets to read it and find it intriguing. Basically random luck. Fit might be important but it’s actually a luxury in this climate.

Yes, you need a handful of targets and safeties. But apply as many reach as you can and choose from where you get in. Then you can talk about the fit amongst where you got in.

Again, I’m talking about top stat kid who didn’t make it to ED or EA at desired schools.

Some of us disagree with this. I've had 2 top stats unhooked kids, and, while we can't always know institutional priorities, it's not that random. So much of it is how the candidate connects with the AO through writing and overall narrative.

Anonymous wrote:May I summarize what is happening here?

Top stat kids are in a position where they need to apply 20+ colleges in order to get in anywhere they feel they deserved to be in.

Top stat kids (top 10% of any high schools)are more or less applying the same list of schools- top50 U and top 30 LAC. And schools in the big cities (Boston, NYC, LA)and nice towns get very popular.

Their application more or less all look similar.
It’s literally about who gets to read it and find it intriguing. Basically random luck. Fit might be important but it’s actually a luxury in this climate.

Yes, you need a handful of targets and safeties. But apply as many reach as you can and choose from where you get in. Then you can talk about the fit amongst where you got in.

Again, I’m talking about top stat kid who didn’t make it to ED or EA at desired schools.

Key issues is "Top stat kids are in a position where they need to apply 20+ colleges in order to get in anywhere they feel they deserved to be in."

They need to rethink "where they feel they deserve to be in"

At the core that is the issue. So many with "top stats" feel they must attend a T25-30 school. Once you get over that mindset, you can run a much better process. Why would you randomly apply to T25 schools just because "you deserve to be there"? Why not search and find places you actually want to be? You are approaching the process incorrectly, IMO. Putting prestige (based loosely on an antiquated rankings system) at the top rather than actually searching quality for your kid---where will they fit in, where will they be happy, because that is where they will excel the most. There is no way more than 3-4 schools in the T20 are all "the perfect/best school" for any single kid. Each university is so different.

We will apply to 3 schools and if he doesn’t get in we are going to community college and transferring to big state school

Anonymous wrote:May I summarize what is happening here?

Top stat kids are in a position where they need to apply 20+ colleges in order to get in anywhere they feel they deserved to be in.

Top stat kids (top 10% of any high schools)are more or less applying the same list of schools- top50 U and top 30 LAC. And schools in the big cities (Boston, NYC, LA)and nice towns get very popular.

Their application more or less all look similar.
It’s literally about who gets to read it and find it intriguing. Basically random luck. Fit might be important but it’s actually a luxury in this climate.

Yes, you need a handful of targets and safeties. But apply as many reach as you can and choose from where you get in. Then you can talk about the fit amongst where you got in.

Again, I’m talking about top stat kid who didn’t make it to ED or EA at desired schools.

Bingo. This is exactly it. Does this happen every year?

Probably, right? It’s just the 20-30 apps seem high.

May I summarize what is happening here?

Top stat kids are in a position where they need to apply 20+ colleges in order to get in anywhere they feel they deserved to be in.

Top stat kids (top 10% of any high schools)are more or less applying the same list of schools- top50 U and top 30 LAC. And schools in the big cities (Boston, NYC, LA)and nice towns get very popular.

Their application more or less all look similar.
It’s literally about who gets to read it and find it intriguing. Basically random luck. Fit might be important but it’s actually a luxury in this climate.

Yes, you need a handful of targets and safeties. But apply as many reach as you can and choose from where you get in. Then you can talk about the fit amongst where you got in.

Again, I’m talking about top stat kid who didn’t make it to ED or EA at desired schools.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Everyone gets knocked down a tier. When UW 4.0/35+ACTgreat ACTs are getting denied and deferred EA/ED they start applying to more schools T30-65.

Now kids that normally would get in those schools are getting knocked down a tier and so and so on.

You can’t blame the high stats kids for getting shut out of top schools and reaching down. Don’t hate the player, hate the game.

If you curate a good list of reaches, targets and true safeties/likelies, then you do not need to apply to 20+ schools. Just because you have high stats does not mean you should apply to 7-10 T25 schools. Search to find the 3-5 that are an excellent fit, then find 3-5 targets and another 3-5 safeties. That's 9-15 schools at most. Then show demonstrated interest at all of them, but especially your targets and safeties. If you do it correctly, you should get into at least 50% of your targets and 75-100% of your safeties.

My own 1500/3.99UW/9APs/Good EC but not stupendous had it go this way:

ED1 T10, deferred and ultimately rejected (acceptance rate less than 7%)
T30--WL (single digit acceptance rates)
3 T30-50 Accepted
1 T60 Accepted, but go abroad for first year (single digit acceptance rates)
1 T70 Accepted with excellent merit (30% of total costs/year)---Top Safety
Accepted at the other 3 safeties as well

So as my kid says, they were only rejected from 1 school outright.
They are at one of the T30-50 schools, of course the one without any merit, but the one I knew was probably the best fit for my kid from the moment they set foot on campus. Each visit they just lit up and you could see the excitement. So this was actually a better place then their 3 reaches.

The tone here is just off. Why the “holier than thou” nasty attitude?
Your kid isn’t even going through the process now.
Why are you still hanging around here?

Because I have 1 more to go thru the process in a few years.

Not "holier than thou" attitude. just reality that I see so many thinking, my high stats kid is better than everyone else and deserves a spot in a T25 school, and then the parents are scrambling to help the kid find more schools to apply to when they get rejected/WL at their first rounds of "Top schools". We see it every damn year, people complaining their kid got rejected from 10-15+ schools and "how can that happen". Well it happens because those schools all have less than 20% acceptance rates, most have single digits. That means it's a crap shoot for everyone. However, I do not personally see kids getting rejected from all their 30-60 schools if they put in the effort and find ones they want to attend.

DP. I didn't see anything nasty about your post, and I don’t know what the other poster's issue is. You provided a lot of great advice. I've had 2 go through this in the past 3 years. Max was 15 apps, and that related to FA. We have a friend applying to 20, but they have a unique FA situation-- higher income but with health expenses. So, I get it for them.

Yes, chasing merit is an excellent reason for having more applications. Most doing that have a very targeted plan and I can understand why they apply to more schools. They also are applying to Targets and safeties, not 10+ reaches.

💯

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Everyone gets knocked down a tier. When UW 4.0/35+ACTgreat ACTs are getting denied and deferred EA/ED they start applying to more schools T30-65.

Now kids that normally would get in those schools are getting knocked down a tier and so and so on.

You can’t blame the high stats kids for getting shut out of top schools and reaching down. Don’t hate the player, hate the game.

If you curate a good list of reaches, targets and true safeties/likelies, then you do not need to apply to 20+ schools. Just because you have high stats does not mean you should apply to 7-10 T25 schools. Search to find the 3-5 that are an excellent fit, then find 3-5 targets and another 3-5 safeties. That's 9-15 schools at most. Then show demonstrated interest at all of them, but especially your targets and safeties. If you do it correctly, you should get into at least 50% of your targets and 75-100% of your safeties.

My own 1500/3.99UW/9APs/Good EC but not stupendous had it go this way:

ED1 T10, deferred and ultimately rejected (acceptance rate less than 7%)
T30--WL (single digit acceptance rates)
3 T30-50 Accepted
1 T60 Accepted, but go abroad for first year (single digit acceptance rates)
1 T70 Accepted with excellent merit (30% of total costs/year)---Top Safety
Accepted at the other 3 safeties as well

So as my kid says, they were only rejected from 1 school outright.
They are at one of the T30-50 schools, of course the one without any merit, but the one I knew was probably the best fit for my kid from the moment they set foot on campus. Each visit they just lit up and you could see the excitement. So this was actually a better place then their 3 reaches.

The tone here is just off. Why the “holier than thou” nasty attitude?
Your kid isn’t even going through the process now.
Why are you still hanging around here?

Because I have 1 more to go thru the process in a few years.

Not "holier than thou" attitude. just reality that I see so many thinking, my high stats kid is better than everyone else and deserves a spot in a T25 school, and then the parents are scrambling to help the kid find more schools to apply to when they get rejected/WL at their first rounds of "Top schools". We see it every damn year, people complaining their kid got rejected from 10-15+ schools and "how can that happen". Well it happens because those schools all have less than 20% acceptance rates, most have single digits. That means it's a crap shoot for everyone. However, I do not personally see kids getting rejected from all their 30-60 schools if they put in the effort and find ones they want to attend.

DP. I didn't see anything nasty about your post, and I don’t know what the other poster's issue is. You provided a lot of great advice. I've had 2 go through this in the past 3 years. Max was 15 apps, and that related to FA. We have a friend applying to 20, but they have a unique FA situation-- higher income but with health expenses. So, I get it for them.

Yes, chasing merit is an excellent reason for having more applications. Most doing that have a very targeted plan and I can understand why they apply to more schools. They also are applying to Targets and safeties, not 10+ reaches.

Anonymous wrote:It seems like the 3 cohorts of reaches, targets, and safeties are no longer valid buckets for non hooked DMV students. It’s basically schools that have 75% acceptance rate and less than 75%. Anything in the bucket of acceptance rate less than 75% is a lottery ticket for strong stat student in the DMV area (non URM, non athletes, no hooks). Since there really isn’t a rhyme or reason for how those schools accept student because of the blackhole of holistic admissions, for non hook students they have to apply to numerous schools to have a higher statistical chance for just getting an acceptance…it’s just math.

Agree with this.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Everyone gets knocked down a tier. When UW 4.0/35+ACTgreat ACTs are getting denied and deferred EA/ED they start applying to more schools T30-65.

Now kids that normally would get in those schools are getting knocked down a tier and so and so on.

You can’t blame the high stats kids for getting shut out of top schools and reaching down. Don’t hate the player, hate the game.

If you curate a good list of reaches, targets and true safeties/likelies, then you do not need to apply to 20+ schools. Just because you have high stats does not mean you should apply to 7-10 T25 schools. Search to find the 3-5 that are an excellent fit, then find 3-5 targets and another 3-5 safeties. That's 9-15 schools at most. Then show demonstrated interest at all of them, but especially your targets and safeties. If you do it correctly, you should get into at least 50% of your targets and 75-100% of your safeties.

My own 1500/3.99UW/9APs/Good EC but not stupendous had it go this way:

ED1 T10, deferred and ultimately rejected (acceptance rate less than 7%)
T30--WL (single digit acceptance rates)
3 T30-50 Accepted
1 T60 Accepted, but go abroad for first year (single digit acceptance rates)
1 T70 Accepted with excellent merit (30% of total costs/year)---Top Safety
Accepted at the other 3 safeties as well

So as my kid says, they were only rejected from 1 school outright.
They are at one of the T30-50 schools, of course the one without any merit, but the one I knew was probably the best fit for my kid from the moment they set foot on campus. Each visit they just lit up and you could see the excitement. So this was actually a better place then their 3 reaches.

The tone here is just off. Why the “holier than thou” nasty attitude?
Your kid isn’t even going through the process now.
Why are you still hanging around here?

Because I have 1 more to go thru the process in a few years.

Not "holier than thou" attitude. just reality that I see so many thinking, my high stats kid is better than everyone else and deserves a spot in a T25 school, and then the parents are scrambling to help the kid find more schools to apply to when they get rejected/WL at their first rounds of "Top schools". We see it every damn year, people complaining their kid got rejected from 10-15+ schools and "how can that happen". Well it happens because those schools all have less than 20% acceptance rates, most have single digits. That means it's a crap shoot for everyone. However, I do not personally see kids getting rejected from all their 30-60 schools if they put in the effort and find ones they want to attend.

DP. I didn't see anything nasty about your post, and I don’t know what the other poster's issue is. You provided a lot of great advice. I've had 2 go through this in the past 3 years. Max was 15 apps, and that related to FA. We have a friend applying to 20, but they have a unique FA situation-- higher income but with health expenses. So, I get it for them.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Everyone gets knocked down a tier. When UW 4.0/35+ACTgreat ACTs are getting denied and deferred EA/ED they start applying to more schools T30-65.

Now kids that normally would get in those schools are getting knocked down a tier and so and so on.

You can’t blame the high stats kids for getting shut out of top schools and reaching down. Don’t hate the player, hate the game.

If you curate a good list of reaches, targets and true safeties/likelies, then you do not need to apply to 20+ schools. Just because you have high stats does not mean you should apply to 7-10 T25 schools. Search to find the 3-5 that are an excellent fit, then find 3-5 targets and another 3-5 safeties. That's 9-15 schools at most. Then show demonstrated interest at all of them, but especially your targets and safeties. If you do it correctly, you should get into at least 50% of your targets and 75-100% of your safeties.

My own 1500/3.99UW/9APs/Good EC but not stupendous had it go this way:

ED1 T10, deferred and ultimately rejected (acceptance rate less than 7%)
T30--WL (single digit acceptance rates)
3 T30-50 Accepted
1 T60 Accepted, but go abroad for first year (single digit acceptance rates)
1 T70 Accepted with excellent merit (30% of total costs/year)---Top Safety
Accepted at the other 3 safeties as well

So as my kid says, they were only rejected from 1 school outright.
They are at one of the T30-50 schools, of course the one without any merit, but the one I knew was probably the best fit for my kid from the moment they set foot on campus. Each visit they just lit up and you could see the excitement. So this was actually a better place then their 3 reaches.

The tone here is just off. Why the “holier than thou” nasty attitude?
Your kid isn’t even going through the process now.
Why are you still hanging around here?

Because I have 1 more to go thru the process in a few years.

Not "holier than thou" attitude. just reality that I see so many thinking, my high stats kid is better than everyone else and deserves a spot in a T25 school, and then the parents are scrambling to help the kid find more schools to apply to when they get rejected/WL at their first rounds of "Top schools". We see it every damn year, people complaining their kid got rejected from 10-15+ schools and "how can that happen". Well it happens because those schools all have less than 20% acceptance rates, most have single digits. That means it's a crap shoot for everyone. However, I do not personally see kids getting rejected from all their 30-60 schools if they put in the effort and find ones they want to attend.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Everyone gets knocked down a tier. When UW 4.0/35+ACTgreat ACTs are getting denied and deferred EA/ED they start applying to more schools T30-65.

Now kids that normally would get in those schools are getting knocked down a tier and so and so on.

You can’t blame the high stats kids for getting shut out of top schools and reaching down. Don’t hate the player, hate the game.

If you curate a good list of reaches, targets and true safeties/likelies, then you do not need to apply to 20+ schools. Just because you have high stats does not mean you should apply to 7-10 T25 schools. Search to find the 3-5 that are an excellent fit, then find 3-5 targets and another 3-5 safeties. That's 9-15 schools at most. Then show demonstrated interest at all of them, but especially your targets and safeties. If you do it correctly, you should get into at least 50% of your targets and 75-100% of your safeties.

My own 1500/3.99UW/9APs/Good EC but not stupendous had it go this way:

ED1 T10, deferred and ultimately rejected (acceptance rate less than 7%)
T30--WL (single digit acceptance rates)
3 T30-50 Accepted
1 T60 Accepted, but go abroad for first year (single digit acceptance rates)
1 T70 Accepted with excellent merit (30% of total costs/year)---Top Safety
Accepted at the other 3 safeties as well

So as my kid says, they were only rejected from 1 school outright.
They are at one of the T30-50 schools, of course the one without any merit, but the one I knew was probably the best fit for my kid from the moment they set foot on campus. Each visit they just lit up and you could see the excitement. So this was actually a better place then their 3 reaches.

Your advice is outdated. Things are diff this year.

Glad it worked out IN THE PAST

This was for fall 2023--not really "outdated" My kid got into the schools we expected and was rejected/WL/study abroad 1st year at exactly the schools we figured that might happen. But because we had a great list, they had 7+ great schools to choose from. 5 in the 30-70 range. Most with good merit. And this was for CS/Engineering (With out an EC list focused on that---they had an art focused EC list).

Majority claiming "my kid got rejected from 15 schools" it's because those were all mostly reaches. Applying to all T25 schools, where acceptance rates are less than 10-20%, does not increase your odds any. Just like buying 2 vs 1 powerball lottery ticket does not significantly increase your odds of winning.

Fact is if you curate a good list, find schools that your kid actually wants to attend, and make sure there are plenty of targets and safeties you will be fine.
Targets mean acceptance rates from 25-50%, your kid at/+ 50-75 percentiles.
Safeties mean acceptance rates above 50-60% and your kid at/above 75-80%.

And then you have to show your love for the school---make them think your kid actually wants to attend. And yes, many in the 30-60 range know kids just send in applications just because they are worried about being shut out from their T25 schools. So it's your job to convince them you love their school.

But 2023 Fall admissions is not that much different than this year. And if you keep sending in 20+ applications, the process will only drive down admission rates everywhere.

It seems like the 3 cohorts of reaches, targets, and safeties are no longer valid buckets for non hooked DMV students. It’s basically schools that have 75% acceptance rate and less than 75%. Anything in the bucket of acceptance rate less than 75% is a lottery ticket for strong stat student in the DMV area (non URM, non athletes, no hooks). Since there really isn’t a rhyme or reason for how those schools accept student because of the blackhole of holistic admissions, for non hook students they have to apply to numerous schools to have a higher statistical chance for just getting an acceptance…it’s just math.

My kid's school limits application to 10. I don't think people are doing their homework if their kid has to apply to more than 12 or so.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'd be super curious how things would shake out if they limited apps like they do in the UK, like 10 tops.

BTW, people have mentioned this before and everyone goes nuts - common app does limit apps! -- but no, it doesn't.

I'd also love to see schools go back to requiring tests and also post a minimum for GPA and test scores. I think 10% of apps at high reaches are totally a waste of everyone's time. you have to have a 1200 and a 3.5, cmon people. We can read holistically from there.

Yeah, but what about someone with a 4.0 and 1550? This is my kid and he got rejected ED1. He has a legitimate shot anywhere but might get rejected by all the top schools.

That was my oldest too.

2nd kid applied to over 15 schools just to be safe. When the first batch came back with a deferral and rejection, they added a few more. Once they got their first acceptance, they scaled back.

Having seen the higher stat older sibling end up with an onslaught of waitlists and rejections made us change our approach to applying.

Did those 15 include targets and safeties? Because applying to 15 schools that are high reaches or reaches is like applying to 5 reaches. You need to include targets and safeties.
Anything with an acceptance rate less than 20-25% is a REACH for everyone (unless your parents are ex presidents or named Gates/Bezos/etc)

I’m sure everyone has their safeties in hand….ppl are trying to get the best outcome.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Everyone gets knocked down a tier. When UW 4.0/35+ACTgreat ACTs are getting denied and deferred EA/ED they start applying to more schools T30-65.

Now kids that normally would get in those schools are getting knocked down a tier and so and so on.

You can’t blame the high stats kids for getting shut out of top schools and reaching down. Don’t hate the player, hate the game.

If you curate a good list of reaches, targets and true safeties/likelies, then you do not need to apply to 20+ schools. Just because you have high stats does not mean you should apply to 7-10 T25 schools. Search to find the 3-5 that are an excellent fit, then find 3-5 targets and another 3-5 safeties. That's 9-15 schools at most. Then show demonstrated interest at all of them, but especially your targets and safeties. If you do it correctly, you should get into at least 50% of your targets and 75-100% of your safeties.

My own 1500/3.99UW/9APs/Good EC but not stupendous had it go this way:

ED1 T10, deferred and ultimately rejected (acceptance rate less than 7%)
T30--WL (single digit acceptance rates)
3 T30-50 Accepted
1 T60 Accepted, but go abroad for first year (single digit acceptance rates)
1 T70 Accepted with excellent merit (30% of total costs/year)---Top Safety
Accepted at the other 3 safeties as well

So as my kid says, they were only rejected from 1 school outright.
They are at one of the T30-50 schools, of course the one without any merit, but the one I knew was probably the best fit for my kid from the moment they set foot on campus. Each visit they just lit up and you could see the excitement. So this was actually a better place then their 3 reaches.

The tone here is just off. Why the “holier than thou” nasty attitude?
Your kid isn’t even going through the process now.
Why are you still hanging around here?