Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I just honestly don't think the old rules apply here with what we have been through in the last year and a half. Pandemic and now war are the reasons for so much of this trouble.

What exactly would the Republicans do? Tax cuts again? Yeah, those have worked out so well for everyone *MASSIVE EYEROLL*

Agree that the old rules don’t fit the pandemic effects on the economy but the official economic statistics are adjusted for the pre-pandemic economy. We’ve seen that with the BLS labor data using their seasonal adjustments from pre-pandemic patterns and then having to make big adjustments. They finally modified their adjustments but with mostly guesswork.

For CPI and all the other stats adjusted to CPI, the average basket of goods and services built into it is based on pre-pandemic consumption patterns. Yes, gas prices are up but how many people drive as much now as they did in 2019? I sure don’t. I work from home 3 or 4 days a week now vs. 0 days 3 years ago. For commuting, I filled up twice a month 3 years ago but only once a month now, so even with higher prices, I spend less money on gas now. I also spend less on lunch, business attire, auto maintenance, etc., related to commuting, so inflation really hasn’t affected me. But the economic stats assume I’m still buying as much of everything as I bought in 2019.

If gasoline and food consumption were down, enough to make the old CPI models outdated, post pandemic, then odds are prices for those items would be down. The simple answer is that demand is not down enough to offset any supply constraints. The more nuanced answer is that oil flows through everything. You may not be driving to the office but you probably receive a lot more delivered goods at home. The further nuance is that consumption is down marginally from pre pandemic levels, but supply constraints more than offset reduced demand and cost for goods and services are up.

Come on. You know gas prices are not based on consumer demand. Its not a legitimate economic market.

Thats why gas was so cheap the past two years, right?

Demand for gas is higher than last year but not dramatically so, and demand isn’t at pre-pandemic levels. There is no demand reason for the current gas prices. It’s all due to the industry and supplier side.

Prices are set by SUPPLY and DEMAND.

Not one or the other. The reality is that if oil companies stopped drilling for oil today then in 12 months the world would produce about 7-10% less oil. The price of oil is incredibly sensitive to supply. The price cratering from 2014-2020 was due to roughly a 1% oversupply. Oil companies have to constantly reinvest to keep production flat (let alone grow). Would you invest in 30 year oil projects right now?

Competition doesn’t set gas prices except on a small scale at the microeconomic level. Big swings in gas prices are always determined by global oil producers and suppliers, as you just admitted. Energy demand doesn’t change that much. As you admitted, the pandemic disrupted the oil industry’s business model. Global oil producers have to reassess and reset and it takes time and money. That is what caused the inflation in oil and gas. Not demand or regulation, which have not changed significantly.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I just honestly don't think the old rules apply here with what we have been through in the last year and a half. Pandemic and now war are the reasons for so much of this trouble.

What exactly would the Republicans do? Tax cuts again? Yeah, those have worked out so well for everyone *MASSIVE EYEROLL*

Agree that the old rules don’t fit the pandemic effects on the economy but the official economic statistics are adjusted for the pre-pandemic economy. We’ve seen that with the BLS labor data using their seasonal adjustments from pre-pandemic patterns and then having to make big adjustments. They finally modified their adjustments but with mostly guesswork.

For CPI and all the other stats adjusted to CPI, the average basket of goods and services built into it is based on pre-pandemic consumption patterns. Yes, gas prices are up but how many people drive as much now as they did in 2019? I sure don’t. I work from home 3 or 4 days a week now vs. 0 days 3 years ago. For commuting, I filled up twice a month 3 years ago but only once a month now, so even with higher prices, I spend less money on gas now. I also spend less on lunch, business attire, auto maintenance, etc., related to commuting, so inflation really hasn’t affected me. But the economic stats assume I’m still buying as much of everything as I bought in 2019.

If gasoline and food consumption were down, enough to make the old CPI models outdated, post pandemic, then odds are prices for those items would be down. The simple answer is that demand is not down enough to offset any supply constraints. The more nuanced answer is that oil flows through everything. You may not be driving to the office but you probably receive a lot more delivered goods at home. The further nuance is that consumption is down marginally from pre pandemic levels, but supply constraints more than offset reduced demand and cost for goods and services are up.

Come on. You know gas prices are not based on consumer demand. Its not a legitimate economic market.

Thats why gas was so cheap the past two years, right?

Demand for gas is higher than last year but not dramatically so, and demand isn’t at pre-pandemic levels. There is no demand reason for the current gas prices. It’s all due to the industry and supplier side.

Prices are set by SUPPLY and DEMAND.

Not one or the other. The reality is that if oil companies stopped drilling for oil today then in 12 months the world would produce about 7-10% less oil. The price of oil is incredibly sensitive to supply. The price cratering from 2014-2020 was due to roughly a 1% oversupply. Oil companies have to constantly reinvest to keep production flat (let alone grow). Would you invest in 30 year oil projects right now?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Classic Stagflation is in place yet many on this board ignored and chastised anyone who brought this up last fall. This is worse than 1979 and I anticipate double digit numbers by the end of the summer.

It’s not stagflation. You don’t know what stagflation is.

My Masters in Economics from Stanford says otherwise.

We don’t have a stagnant economy, so no stag, just inflation. Unemployment is very low. Economic expansion continues. Just high energy prices.

Expansion? You seen the last 2 quarters of GDP????

Continued job growth, income growth, nominal GDP growth, but offset in real GDP by inflation adjustment. Inflation is a real problem. No one is saying it isn’t. But otherwise the economy is still recovering from the 2020 recession. We are as close to full employment as it gets.

You are ignorant. Real earnings are DECREASING under Biden:

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.nr0.htm

Jesus, pay attention to the news please. Real earnings have gone down 3% YoY due to inflation under Biden's watch. Workers are now worse for than a year ago. Stop conflating income with actual real earnings. This is terrible news.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I voted for Biden to get rid of Trump. Never again. He is a complete disaster and has no plan while the economy collapses and trillions in wealth is wiped out (so far).

STFU troll.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If it's back to Biden vs Trump, I will vote for Biden again.

Biden has done more damage in less than 2 years than even I thought was possible. No way I would EVER vote for this buffoon.
Trump had his faults, but he doesn't come close to the incompetency we have seen the past 17 months. From the Afghanistan withdrawal to the pandemic response, to the supply chain issues, the gas price crisis, the baby formula shortage, and the horrendous border crisis......Good God the border crisis. And, these are just the major issues we know about. I suspect there are issues brewing that we have not heard about yet.

You realize more than half of those were Trump's doings?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’d call this the best indicator yet of a surging economy. People have way more money, they’re spending like crazy, and goods can’t be kept in stock.

These are very good times.

Yeah okay you ride that amazing economy all the way to terrible losses at midterms. Btw have you seen the stock market lately?

My portfolio is on fire. I’m up 19% just for ‘22 so far.

Sounds like you’re an idiot. Everyone I know is making money like crazy.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I just honestly don't think the old rules apply here with what we have been through in the last year and a half. Pandemic and now war are the reasons for so much of this trouble.

What exactly would the Republicans do? Tax cuts again? Yeah, those have worked out so well for everyone *MASSIVE EYEROLL*

Agree that the old rules don’t fit the pandemic effects on the economy but the official economic statistics are adjusted for the pre-pandemic economy. We’ve seen that with the BLS labor data using their seasonal adjustments from pre-pandemic patterns and then having to make big adjustments. They finally modified their adjustments but with mostly guesswork.

For CPI and all the other stats adjusted to CPI, the average basket of goods and services built into it is based on pre-pandemic consumption patterns. Yes, gas prices are up but how many people drive as much now as they did in 2019? I sure don’t. I work from home 3 or 4 days a week now vs. 0 days 3 years ago. For commuting, I filled up twice a month 3 years ago but only once a month now, so even with higher prices, I spend less money on gas now. I also spend less on lunch, business attire, auto maintenance, etc., related to commuting, so inflation really hasn’t affected me. But the economic stats assume I’m still buying as much of everything as I bought in 2019.

If gasoline and food consumption were down, enough to make the old CPI models outdated, post pandemic, then odds are prices for those items would be down. The simple answer is that demand is not down enough to offset any supply constraints. The more nuanced answer is that oil flows through everything. You may not be driving to the office but you probably receive a lot more delivered goods at home. The further nuance is that consumption is down marginally from pre pandemic levels, but supply constraints more than offset reduced demand and cost for goods and services are up.

Come on. You know gas prices are not based on consumer demand. Its not a legitimate economic market.

Thats why gas was so cheap the past two years, right?

Demand for gas is higher than last year but not dramatically so, and demand isn’t at pre-pandemic levels. There is no demand reason for the current gas prices. It’s all due to the industry and supplier side.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm sick of the false dichotomies. Trump and Biden can both be terrible on the economy.

Trump was pretty good on the economy until Covid happened.

Anonymous wrote:I'm sick of the false dichotomies. Trump and Biden can both be terrible on the economy.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Classic Stagflation is in place yet many on this board ignored and chastised anyone who brought this up last fall. This is worse than 1979 and I anticipate double digit numbers by the end of the summer.

It’s not stagflation. You don’t know what stagflation is.

My Masters in Economics from Stanford says otherwise.

We don’t have a stagnant economy, so no stag, just inflation. Unemployment is very low. Economic expansion continues. Just high energy prices.

Expansion? You seen the last 2 quarters of GDP????

Continued job growth, income growth, nominal GDP growth, but offset in real GDP by inflation adjustment. Inflation is a real problem. No one is saying it isn’t. But otherwise the economy is still recovering from the 2020 recession. We are as close to full employment as it gets.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Classic Stagflation is in place yet many on this board ignored and chastised anyone who brought this up last fall. This is worse than 1979 and I anticipate double digit numbers by the end of the summer.

It’s not stagflation. You don’t know what stagflation is.

My Masters in Economics from Stanford says otherwise.

We don’t have a stagnant economy, so no stag, just inflation. Unemployment is very low. Economic expansion continues. Just high energy prices.

Expansion? You seen the last 2 quarters of GDP????

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If it's back to Biden vs Trump, I will vote for Biden again.

Biden has done more damage in less than 2 years than even I thought was possible. No way I would EVER vote for this buffoon.
Trump had his faults, but he doesn't come close to the incompetency we have seen the past 17 months. From the Afghanistan withdrawal to the pandemic response, to the supply chain issues, the gas price crisis, the baby formula shortage, and the horrendous border crisis......Good God the border crisis. And, these are just the major issues we know about. I suspect there are issues brewing that we have not heard about yet.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Classic Stagflation is in place yet many on this board ignored and chastised anyone who brought this up last fall. This is worse than 1979 and I anticipate double digit numbers by the end of the summer.

It’s not stagflation. You don’t know what stagflation is.

My Masters in Economics from Stanford says otherwise.

We don’t have a stagnant economy, so no stag, just inflation. Unemployment is very low. Economic expansion continues. Just high energy prices.