Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Our neighbors are selling but we won’t be ready to sell for a few years. If this is a unique situation or a bubble, how do neighborhood price comps work then?

That "market" doesn't care about comps. What it cares about is what someone is willing to pay.

A "bubble" by definition means, more buyers than sellers, hence the frenzy. If and when you decide to sell, the buyer/seller ration will dictate what someone's willing to pay in your neighborhood.

p.s. Wait till all these "new" buyers get property tax assessments, once they close. The shock and awe will be hilarious to watch. "OMG!!! my property taxes went up by...the previous tax bill was only...I can't afford to pay that much....what should I do...."

You find the prospect of someone being unable to afford their recently purchased house "hilarious"? You must be fun at parties...

I am. I'm usually the person most people at a party gravitate to, because I make the most sense.

Oh, and I make great jokes as well.

The home is OVERPRICED and AFFORDABLE at same time.

Right now for average first time buyer given economy and super low mortgage rates homes are Most affordable since 1984.

But someone like me looking to sell and pay cash as near retirement I think it is widely overpriced.

If borrowing a primary the super low rates are great!!!

If like me looking to buy a place in Florida or beach area to retire second home prices are sky high! I am not borrowing so I just get High price. I used to have arbitrage of sorts sell my desirable close in to city home top dollar and buy a cheap place to retire. Plus the low mortgages are not much help old people. My fathers in-laws just retired to Florida at 78. House became too much. A low low mortgage won’t have any where near the payback of a 38 year old.

Bottom line the 5 percent down starter home crowd may be overpaying by month to month lowest cost since 1984.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Our neighbors are selling but we won’t be ready to sell for a few years. If this is a unique situation or a bubble, how do neighborhood price comps work then?

That "market" doesn't care about comps. What it cares about is what someone is willing to pay.

A "bubble" by definition means, more buyers than sellers, hence the frenzy. If and when you decide to sell, the buyer/seller ration will dictate what someone's willing to pay in your neighborhood.

p.s. Wait till all these "new" buyers get property tax assessments, once they close. The shock and awe will be hilarious to watch. "OMG!!! my property taxes went up by...the previous tax bill was only...I can't afford to pay that much....what should I do...."

You find the prospect of someone being unable to afford their recently purchased house "hilarious"? You must be fun at parties...

Anonymous wrote:What’s the going interest rate for a 30-year mortgage now? My sister got 2.75 back in March.

Freddie Mac says still trending down. But that is nationally and mortgage rates have regional variation.
http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/

What’s the going interest rate for a 30-year mortgage now? My sister got 2.75 back in March.

Anonymous wrote:Our neighbors are selling but we won’t be ready to sell for a few years. If this is a unique situation or a bubble, how do neighborhood price comps work then?

That "market" doesn't care about comps. What it cares about is what someone is willing to pay.

A "bubble" by definition means, more buyers than sellers, hence the frenzy. If and when you decide to sell, the buyer/seller ration will dictate what someone's willing to pay in your neighborhood.

p.s. Wait till all these "new" buyers get property tax assessments, once they close. The shock and awe will be hilarious to watch. "OMG!!! my property taxes went up by...the previous tax bill was only...I can't afford to pay that much....what should I do...."

Our neighbors are selling but we won’t be ready to sell for a few years. If this is a unique situation or a bubble, how do neighborhood price comps work then?

Anonymous wrote:Ok but what did that screenshot look like in say, February? Even when the market is very hot, a high percentage of houses on the market any given time will be the ones that have been on the market longer. The volume of houses that sell immediately may be high but the time that they spend on the MLS is much lower.

Like, from a quick back of the envelope, even if 50% of houses go off the market within 1 week, and 50% stay on the market for one month, then actually 80% of the houses on the market at any given time will be the "one month" types, and 40% of the homes on the market will have been on the market for two weeks or more.

The question wasn't "What was happening in Feb...". The question was "Is the bubble popping...", I showed you data, interpret that how you will. The way "I" am interpreting it is...it is definitely slowing down, prices are being reduced "across the board", and houses are staying longer on the market.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:And if you think these are isolated cases....this is a snapshot of Arlington county right now...those green arrows represent price decreases...

If you look at the data, price reduction is happening for highly priced homes +1million. For homes within 500K or less, you will not see price reduction as many buyers fall in that range. Higher the range, lesser the buyers.

You guys are hilarious. First you say that a Million doesn’t buy you anything these days...and then I show you ACTUAL data...and you wanna dismiss that using a fallacious argument?

Wow...

Welcome to DCUM 2021. It's a lot of trolls.

On the topic at hand, the MRIS data is interesting because it is a more up to date picture than the Redfin market trends. What it shows is that Arlington had a HUGE price runup in from Jan. to July 2020. and is looking to surpass the prior season peak. So it would be easy to have an impression looking at that parabolic curve to come to a different conclusion.
https://www.redfin.com/city/21282/VA/Arlington/housing-market

Washington, DC is looking very close to Arlington, except the high end neighborhoods look sluggish.
https://www.redfin.com/city/12839/DC/Washington-DC/housing-market
https://www.redfin.com/neighborhood/1029/DC/Washington-DC/Foxhall-Palisades-Spring-Valley-Wesley-Heights/housing-market

Fairfax County on the other hand just kept going, although the curve is now flattening.
https://www.redfin.com/county/2965/VA/Fairfax-County/housing-market

Montgomery County, by contrast, saw no price growth in 2020 and only now seems to be catching up a little bit. But it is still far behind neighbors.
https://www.redfin.com/county/1324/MD/Montgomery-County/housing-market

Ok but what did that screenshot look like in say, February? Even when the market is very hot, a high percentage of houses on the market any given time will be the ones that have been on the market longer. The volume of houses that sell immediately may be high but the time that they spend on the MLS is much lower.

Like, from a quick back of the envelope, even if 50% of houses go off the market within 1 week, and 50% stay on the market for one month, then actually 80% of the houses on the market at any given time will be the "one month" types, and 40% of the homes on the market will have been on the market for two weeks or more.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:And if you think these are isolated cases....this is a snapshot of Arlington county right now...those green arrows represent price decreases...

If you look at the data, price reduction is happening for highly priced homes +1million. For homes within 500K or less, you will not see price reduction as many buyers fall in that range. Higher the range, lesser the buyers.

You guys are hilarious. First you say that a Million doesn’t buy you anything these days...and then I show you ACTUAL data...and you wanna dismiss that using a fallacious argument?

Wow...

But, but but...everyone was just saying that houses up to $1.5-2 million are selling for a huge markup over ask!!!!

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:And if you think these are isolated cases....this is a snapshot of Arlington county right now...those green arrows represent price decreases...

If you look at the data, price reduction is happening for highly priced homes +1million. For homes within 500K or less, you will not see price reduction as many buyers fall in that range. Higher the range, lesser the buyers.

You guys are hilarious. First you say that a Million doesn’t buy you anything these days...and then I show you ACTUAL data...and you wanna dismiss that using a fallacious argument?

Wow...

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:And if you think these are isolated cases....this is a snapshot of Arlington county right now...those green arrows represent price decreases...

I dont believe this. I talk to realtors and they are pretty confident that prices are not going to come down and we are not in bubble.

I AM a realtor...and this is direct from MRIS. what’s not to believe??

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The problem with condos is you are not just on the hook for your own property but for everything that is commonly owned matter how poorly it has been maintained before you bought, and it's really hard to get everyone to pay their assessments so you're dealing with certain freeloaders.

You have to join board. I am treasurer and insurance, mgt fees, legal fees, accounting fees, landscaping, gutter, snow, contracts have to be managed as well as have no tolerance for arrears. Also stay up on maint of building.

I joined board and more work than a house. A badly run condo is a headache.

My condo common charges are low enough no one complains. But a lot of luck. My building was literally falling down in 2009 from years of neglect and between 2013 - 2018 redid whole place top to bottom. I say luck as in 2021 constructions costs through the roof. It would cost double almost.

wow condos sound really great

That's why there are plenty on the market.

They do suck. I literally bought condo board was thieves. A few very very old ladies in charge who were more concerned about flowers, snow removal, gossip, tour stuff and 20 percent of building not paying common charges and we had a net of negative 200k in bank due to a loan.

I sued everyone not paying. Put Liens on properties and towed cars out of lot. My favorite we slapped liens on one persons furniture, we even went after tenants cars and such. Everyone paid up or sold.

What a hot mess. But building is now great. Sadly I am the bad guy. People pay as they know “I quote” will kick them down the steps and crush their necks of late. Running gag. It is as shocking. Was a learning experience. I spent t maybe 1,000 hours on it.

Like I said never again. But I learned a lot.

Anonymous wrote:And if you think these are isolated cases....this is a snapshot of Arlington county right now...those green arrows represent price decreases...

If you look at the data, price reduction is happening for highly priced homes +1million. For homes within 500K or less, you will not see price reduction as many buyers fall in that range. Higher the range, lesser the buyers.