I live in Baltimore and am househunting, both city and suburbs and in the usual hot areas. Properties indeed are flying off the shelf but with some notable exceptions. It's a lot slower above 600kish and some surprising sluggish sales. I also pare over all the sales history, so forget about the quick sales for a moment and focus on what people are paying and what sellers originally paid for.

If you bought in 2004-2007, you are barely getting what you paid. Basically the same. Exception: if you remodeled and added fancy kitchens you see a bump.

If you bought in 2014-2016, you are pretty much selling what you paid for the property.

Then there are segments of the market and each segment behaves differently.

Waterfront, especially Federal Hill, has been really sluggish with terrible appreciation. I've seen plenty of listings this year that are either the same or even a slight loss compared to original purchase in 2014/2015 (when buyers doubtlessly thought they were getting a deal). And if you bought in 2000-2005, odds are you are taking an outright loss. In some cases, a pretty hefty loss. My favorite was a house on Montgomery that sold for 500k. Owners had previously paid 700k....

Hampden has appreciated very well, but there are some surprising flat sales too. Such as 285 to 315 over 10 years. Sluggish for sure. The hot prices in Hampden are largely driven by renovations and houses that are solid but not HGTV updated have much lower prices.

Segments that have done well are houses in North Baltimore that might have sold for 400kish in 2015 but now are closer to 450-475. But above 500k is definitely slower appreciation.

County is not immune either. Monkton, Phoenix etc have pretty flat appreciation and even some losses. Owings Mills has lost value, including the expensive parts. Someone I know bought one of the ugly McMansions off Garrison Forest Road for 1.35M. Sellers had paid 1.8M in 2006. Ouch. Pikesville (the nice parts in Stevenson etc) are surprisingly cheap for what you get. The upscale townhouses generally sell at a slight loss compared to 2004/2005. On the other hand, inside beltway Towson has done really well, with Stoneleigh leading the pack in appreciation. Falls Road Corridor is holding its ground.

Not being intentionally doom and gloom. I agree inventory is spectacularly tight. But Baltimore is never going to see the kind of greater than inflation appreciation seen in DC over the long run. Short run short term mini booms are hit or misses.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If you bought in Baltimore 20 years ago, you would have doubled your money by now. If you bought between 1990 and 2000, closer to tripled. Future trends are not as predictable as most on this thread seem to believe.

Subtract inflation, insurance, and taxes. Plus calculate all of the money you lost by not investing the losing difference in taxes in baltimore vs elsewhere that's cheaper. Baltimore is a terrible investment. ROI is barely positive if you're lucky. And when it comes time to sell it can be very difficult.

My friend, properties are flying off the shelf right now. Whatever you're having trouble selling must be pretty bad, because the market is at least quite warm. It's not red-hot/overheated, which is why OP wants to move here, but it's solid. Are all your memories from 2009 or something?

Let's try some numbers instead of speculation.

5 year trends:

Washington DC
Median sale price: $682k
Year-over-year increase: +10%
Median days on market: 29

Baltimore
Median sale price: $198k
Year-over-year increase: +23%
Median days on market: 30

Of course, a 10% increase on $700k is a lot bigger than a 20% increase on $200k! But they are entirely different markets. It's a different game. Some prefer one, some prefer the other. Real estate investors can do very well here (I have a dear friend who is one) but only if you know Baltimore. Baltimore is NOT Washington DC. Invest like it is and you'll lose your shirt, and will deserve it.

Anonymous wrote:If you bought in Baltimore 20 years ago, you would have doubled your money by now. If you bought between 1990 and 2000, closer to tripled. Future trends are not as predictable as most on this thread seem to believe.

Subtract inflation, insurance, and taxes. Plus calculate all of the money you lost by not investing the losing difference in taxes in baltimore vs elsewhere that's cheaper. Baltimore is a terrible investment. ROI is barely positive if you're lucky. And when it comes time to sell it can be very difficult.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If you bought in Baltimore 20 years ago, you would have doubled your money by now. If you bought between 1990 and 2000, closer to tripled. Future trends are not as predictable as most on this thread seem to believe.

I like Baltimore and am more bullish than most but this isn't quite true. Some of it is neighborhood specific. I think prices on the whole are comparable to 2000-2005. Some areas have done better, others less so.

Baltimore is probably slightly underpriced as a whole but the problem with the future is that you never know when you need to sell and if it will be a buyers market or sellers market.

You would be wrong. Prices on Baltimore in 2000 were very different their 2005.

Anonymous wrote:If you bought in Baltimore 20 years ago, you would have doubled your money by now. If you bought between 1990 and 2000, closer to tripled. Future trends are not as predictable as most on this thread seem to believe.

I like Baltimore and am more bullish than most but this isn't quite true. Some of it is neighborhood specific. I think prices on the whole are comparable to 2000-2005. Some areas have done better, others less so.

Baltimore is probably slightly underpriced as a whole but the problem with the future is that you never know when you need to sell and if it will be a buyers market or sellers market.

I don't know why anyone who ever has to commute to DC would live somewhere other than Bolton Hill. The MARC access is great and so is the neighborhood.

Anonymous wrote:This is OP. Thanks again for the commentary -- this is genuinely helping us work through our hang ups. And to the PP upthread who noted that if we move to Baltimore, we will inevitably have to deal with DC people talking s**t about it -- excellent point! It's funny because my DH works with a lot of people who are based in Baltimore or elsewhere in Maryland, and they ALL say terrible things about DC all the time and we've always just ignored it because we were happy here and their criticism is often (though not always) based in ignorance of what it's actually like. So we assume the same is true about Baltimore to an extent.

Also, we live in a neighborhood in DC that I'm sure may would PPs would find horribly crime-ridden, and love it and don't find it unsafe. If you live in a city, you will deal with crime. We have accepted that.

And thank you to those encouraging us to take the long view on home values. I do feel like we are suffering from DC short-timers thinking -- you get weirdly accustomed to people profiting off their homes here after living in them for only a few years, and it skews perspective on what a "normal" appreciation is like. We have a neighbor in our building who sold their condo for a 200k profit (after closing costs) after just two years. It was eye-popping. Stories like that have definitely altered our perception and I think if we are really going to make the leap to moving out of DC, we need to be brought back down to earth a bit. So thank you!

I think ultimately we need to just keep looking for the right home. Increasingly, I think Hampden is our sweet spot -- we really love the commercial area of the neighborhood and we aren't looking for a ton of space (we've lived in a 1000 sq ft condo with a child and a pet for over 5 years, I think anything will feel like an upgrade!), though would love a little yard or patio. It feels like the right middle ground and is close enough to a number of schools we like while keeping our overall costs down. I think targeting our search, and maybe letting go of our original instinct to be in a denser part of town, is going to help us make sense of this whole thing and make a better apples to apples financial comparison between DC and Baltimore. Wish us luck!

Good luck!! That's where i lived in Baltimore when I lived there. One specific part of the area to look at - Wyman Park - adjacent to green space and Hampden around Beech Ave. Really pretty streets and houses with more yard space. Slightly bigger properties than others in Hampden (closer to Falls Rd, a lot of the housing stock was historically aimed at mill workers, so it was tighter).

Anonymous wrote:I am sure the thread can speak to that. I went to graduate school in baltimore, my husband is in law enforcement and for his job has traveled a lot. He said to me something along these lines....that he had been in a lot of places, including other cities and yet it was in baltimore (downtown, not even the worst parts) where he felt the hairs on the back of his neck stand up. Some parts are lovely and the city has much to offer. But some of the crimes are really on another level. Like armed robberies in broad daylight on the courtyard of the campus. Years ago there was an attempted abduction of a college female in broad daylight on a main road. You have to just be mindful all the time and that level of high alert can be wearying. But not everbody is the same and some people feel safe there overall.

This is very accurate. Crime has been pretty bad since last few years and it is not going to get better from here.

East of the river in DC is way way better than Baltimore now. There is no comparison these days but may be 10 years ago it could have been.

If you like Hampden, I’d consider Charles village as well, and perhaps even parts of Remington.

This is OP. Thanks again for the commentary -- this is genuinely helping us work through our hang ups. And to the PP upthread who noted that if we move to Baltimore, we will inevitably have to deal with DC people talking s**t about it -- excellent point! It's funny because my DH works with a lot of people who are based in Baltimore or elsewhere in Maryland, and they ALL say terrible things about DC all the time and we've always just ignored it because we were happy here and their criticism is often (though not always) based in ignorance of what it's actually like. So we assume the same is true about Baltimore to an extent.

Also, we live in a neighborhood in DC that I'm sure may would PPs would find horribly crime-ridden, and love it and don't find it unsafe. If you live in a city, you will deal with crime. We have accepted that.

And thank you to those encouraging us to take the long view on home values. I do feel like we are suffering from DC short-timers thinking -- you get weirdly accustomed to people profiting off their homes here after living in them for only a few years, and it skews perspective on what a "normal" appreciation is like. We have a neighbor in our building who sold their condo for a 200k profit (after closing costs) after just two years. It was eye-popping. Stories like that have definitely altered our perception and I think if we are really going to make the leap to moving out of DC, we need to be brought back down to earth a bit. So thank you!

I think ultimately we need to just keep looking for the right home. Increasingly, I think Hampden is our sweet spot -- we really love the commercial area of the neighborhood and we aren't looking for a ton of space (we've lived in a 1000 sq ft condo with a child and a pet for over 5 years, I think anything will feel like an upgrade!), though would love a little yard or patio. It feels like the right middle ground and is close enough to a number of schools we like while keeping our overall costs down. I think targeting our search, and maybe letting go of our original instinct to be in a denser part of town, is going to help us make sense of this whole thing and make a better apples to apples financial comparison between DC and Baltimore. Wish us luck!

Anonymous wrote:If my husband would do it, I would move to Roland Park in a hot second. We have three kids and I am over the constant competitiveness/rat race in the DC area and the transient people. Places like Baltimore are more affordable and people have a real sense of place. I'd like to raise my kids somewhere where their friends don't move every three years and where people are more down to earth.

Don't get stuck on the lack of home appreciation. It's part of the package--that's why it is affordable to live there. Make investments in something other than your home. Also, real cities have crime. Just be aware of it and no where not to go. No one here in DC is driving around the bad parts of NE or SE for fun...you wouldn't do that in Baltimore, Cleveland or Detroit either.

Good luck to you.

Constant competitiveness? Rat race? Huh?

DC is low key. I've basically been able to get away with sitting on the couch the last 20 years.

If you bought in Baltimore 20 years ago, you would have doubled your money by now. If you bought between 1990 and 2000, closer to tripled. Future trends are not as predictable as most on this thread seem to believe.

If my husband would do it, I would move to Roland Park in a hot second. We have three kids and I am over the constant competitiveness/rat race in the DC area and the transient people. Places like Baltimore are more affordable and people have a real sense of place. I'd like to raise my kids somewhere where their friends don't move every three years and where people are more down to earth.

Don't get stuck on the lack of home appreciation. It's part of the package--that's why it is affordable to live there. Make investments in something other than your home. Also, real cities have crime. Just be aware of it and no where not to go. No one here in DC is driving around the bad parts of NE or SE for fun...you wouldn't do that in Baltimore, Cleveland or Detroit either.

Good luck to you.

Anonymous wrote:I’m the there is hope for the future of the entire city poster from earlier. I think Brandon Scott deserves a chance to prove that he is different, pushing for and hiring the first city administrator is a good first sign. More importantly, having the first non-corrupt city comptroller in decades could be a game changer. I went to Hopkins with Bill Henry and he is a smart, honest guy.

I lived in Barry’s dc and in Philly in the dark days before Rendell, pretty sure people were equally pessimistic about both cities.

Yes! I voted for Bill Henry with great pleasure. I’m a little nervous about Scott, but he was far and away the best of the alternatives.

Haters gonna hate. We just laugh and dump another tablespoon of Old Bay into our Natty Boh.