Anonymous
Post 09/30/2020 23:48     Subject: Post your electoral map prediction!
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:If a state delegation is deadlocked (ie, 3 Dem Congressional members and 3 GOP members), their vote is tossed aside. In the House, the a candidate needs to win the majority of the delegation to capture it. It would be interesting to see which states are closely split.


Close delegations based on current composition:
Arizona: R - 5, D - 6
Florida: R - 16, D - 13
Colorado: R - 3, D - 5
Iowa: R - 3, D - 3 (flippable! Give to Greenfield)
Maine: R - 1, I - 1, D -2
Montana: R - 2, D - 1 (flippable! Give to Bullock)
Pennsylvania: R - 10, D - 10
Wisconsin: R - 6, D - 4 (flippable! Pump money into WI House campaigns)

https://projects.propublica.org/represent/states

Wait, I think the nightmare tie scenario doesn’t include House + Senate but is just about the House?
Anonymous
Post 09/30/2020 23:43     Subject: Post your electoral map prediction!
Anonymous wrote:If a state delegation is deadlocked (ie, 3 Dem Congressional members and 3 GOP members), their vote is tossed aside. In the House, the a candidate needs to win the majority of the delegation to capture it. It would be interesting to see which states are closely split.


Close delegations based on current composition:
Arizona: R - 5, D - 6
Florida: R - 16, D - 13
Colorado: R - 3, D - 5
Iowa: R - 3, D - 3 (flippable! Give to Greenfield)
Maine: R - 1, I - 1, D -2
Montana: R - 2, D - 1 (flippable! Give to Bullock)
Pennsylvania: R - 10, D - 10
Wisconsin: R - 6, D - 4 (flippable! Pump money into WI House campaigns)

https://projects.propublica.org/represent/states
Anonymous
Post 09/30/2020 23:39     Subject: Post your electoral map prediction!
House Seats Democrats need to target to ensure House Delegation majority (w/ Cook Rating):

FL15 Lean R
FL26 Tossup
AKAL Lean R
MTAL Lean R
MI03 Lean R
MI06 Lean R
PA01 Lean R
PA08 Lean D
PA10 Tossup
IA01 Tossup
IA02 Tossup
IA03 Tossup
Anonymous
Post 09/30/2020 23:38     Subject: Post your electoral map prediction!
Anonymous wrote:Biden is doing a train tour through Pennsylvania and Ohio. Clearly the internals are showing Ohio to be in play. Huge news.



I hope that’s true. Did phone banking to Ohio tonight and it was not a friendly reception.
Anonymous
Post 09/30/2020 23:31     Subject: Post your electoral map prediction!
If a state delegation is deadlocked (ie, 3 Dem Congressional members and 3 GOP members), their vote is tossed aside. In the House, the a candidate needs to win the majority of the delegation to capture it. It would be interesting to see which states are closely split.