OP here.
others have pointed this out, but $375k is overly conservative on your HHI, unless you think one of you is likely to get fired or laid off. i am very risk-averse and conservative, but even i would feel fairly comfortable buying in the 500-550k range on your salary.
First, slight clarification: we're at about $150k per year total, not $158k.
We came at $375k a few ways:
1. Many calculators recommend putting 20% down. $75k is the upper end that we'd be able to muster in a best-case scenario while factoring in closing costs. Also, we don't want to drain our emergency fund to come up with additional money and we may have another kid soon, in which case we'll need additional savings. Based on previous comments, I may consider putting less down and paying PMI but that will be a bitter pill that I'd rather not take if I can help it.
2. Many calculators recommend not going above 2.5x annual income. That may be conservative but it's what we're comfortable with.
3. Many calculators talk about 28-36% gross income for mortgage payment, but this seems really high, particularly since we'd only probably be able to afford a fixer upper (which will require additional money along the way). Right now our rent is much less than that and we'd like a mortgage that's close to our current rent. That way our cost of living will be predictable. And that's in addition to existing childcare costs, college savings, and retirement savings (let alone groceries, etc.)! Paying 28-36% toward a mortgage payment would substantially change our household expenditures picture.
All of these factors steer us in the vicinity of $375k. Evidently most folks are willing to stretch themselves further than this (hence the high prices). I can't think of any other way.