Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I also regarding St Anns DNA. but also can't overlook their college placement, even now.

GCS is a solid school, but also very much a full pay place. They dont have the endowment TTs have. They dont have the college placement of 2Ts like Regis or St Ann's or, if we were adding publics, schools like Bronx Science or Hunter.

I put GCS on the same tier as Beacon and Poly Prep and Berkeley Carroll. I think that's 3T.

And if I wanted to open a can of worms: I'd also put Avenues in this tier. It's a good education with solid college counseling and outcomes. Also pretty much full pay, but it is what it is

If you are going to be very granular and say 2T is just Regis, St. Ann's, and maybe Riverdale, then I would agree that Grace is 3T. Though if also being that granular, I would likely differentiate it from Berkeley Carroll and make that 4T. If you are doing a broader view of 2T then Grace sneaks in.

Agreed that Avenues is an odd duck. Probably agree with you on the tiering. But it draws a different crowd. And I know some people who sent their kid for elementary (particularly those who live downtown for whom it was convenient) and maxed out the language portion then applied out as they felt that that was its primary differentiating factor and the HS was not as good.

Okay, I'll try. I agree that GCS is getting rising in ranks - just 3-4 years ago they'd take anyone who could pay and was tier 4 - but it's not tier 2. I don't have deep insight into all these schools so this is just my take as a person who has two kids in private high schools in nyc, has been through the application process twice as an unhooked family, and follows college placement somewhat. I'm sure there are glaring errors.

(these aren't ranked within tiers)

tier 1
Trinity
Collegiate
Dalton
Spence
Brearley
HM
Chapin

tier 2
St Ann's
Regis
Riverdale
Fieldstone
Marymount
Sacred Heart
Nightingale

tier 3
Loyola
GCS
Packer
Poly
Avenues
Friends Seminary

Tier 4
BFS
BC
Basis
Hewitt
Dwight
Trevor
Calhoun
Hackley
Lycée
UNIS
Xavier/Fordham Prep
Notre Dame/DA/SVF

--

Are Marymount, Sacred Heart , Nightingale still considered T2? Looking at their instagram pages, the college results look more T3.

I would agree. Though I don't feel strongly.

Nightingale has pretty solid college results.

Anonymous wrote:Marymount and CSH are Tier 2. Nightingale is t3

why do you believe that Marymount is Tier 2?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Just to add: the competitive pressure for TT/2T/3T private schools is much about what cool things the other schools are offering (STEM for example has been something they've been at each others' throats for for the last decade or so) than incremental tuition increases; nobody is picking Dalton over HM because it's $1k cheaper.

This all makes sense. I know a lot of rich families go to these schools. It just seems that there is a price point where the kids get richer and dumber, with many dual income professional parents (doctors, attorneys who aren’t rainmakers) opting out for public school or the suburbs. Tuition cannot keep outpacing inflation forever without some change of student body composition.

you aren't really look at the right comparison. tuition increases versus inflation isn't the right metric

it's tuition increases versus senior knowledge worker income & equity market gains.

a upper middle class family with $3MM in investible assets - if their equity portfolio went up 15% or about $450k. they will totally feel wealthy enough to pay the 4-6% tuition increase even if inflation is 3-4%

Anonymous wrote:Marymount and CSH are Tier 2. Nightingale is t3

Sounds like we have a Marymount parent here. Nightingale is T2 and Marymount is T3/T4.

Marymount and CSH are Tier 2. Nightingale is t3

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I also regarding St Anns DNA. but also can't overlook their college placement, even now.

GCS is a solid school, but also very much a full pay place. They dont have the endowment TTs have. They dont have the college placement of 2Ts like Regis or St Ann's or, if we were adding publics, schools like Bronx Science or Hunter.

I put GCS on the same tier as Beacon and Poly Prep and Berkeley Carroll. I think that's 3T.

And if I wanted to open a can of worms: I'd also put Avenues in this tier. It's a good education with solid college counseling and outcomes. Also pretty much full pay, but it is what it is

If you are going to be very granular and say 2T is just Regis, St. Ann's, and maybe Riverdale, then I would agree that Grace is 3T. Though if also being that granular, I would likely differentiate it from Berkeley Carroll and make that 4T. If you are doing a broader view of 2T then Grace sneaks in.

Agreed that Avenues is an odd duck. Probably agree with you on the tiering. But it draws a different crowd. And I know some people who sent their kid for elementary (particularly those who live downtown for whom it was convenient) and maxed out the language portion then applied out as they felt that that was its primary differentiating factor and the HS was not as good.

Okay, I'll try. I agree that GCS is getting rising in ranks - just 3-4 years ago they'd take anyone who could pay and was tier 4 - but it's not tier 2. I don't have deep insight into all these schools so this is just my take as a person who has two kids in private high schools in nyc, has been through the application process twice as an unhooked family, and follows college placement somewhat. I'm sure there are glaring errors.

(these aren't ranked within tiers)

tier 1
Trinity
Collegiate
Dalton
Spence
Brearley
HM
Chapin

tier 2
St Ann's
Regis
Riverdale
Fieldstone
Marymount
Sacred Heart
Nightingale

tier 3
Loyola
GCS
Packer
Poly
Avenues
Friends Seminary

Tier 4
BFS
BC
Basis
Hewitt
Dwight
Trevor
Calhoun
Hackley
Lycée
UNIS
Xavier/Fordham Prep
Notre Dame/DA/SVF

--

Are Marymount, Sacred Heart , Nightingale still considered T2? Looking at their instagram pages, the college results look more T3.

I would agree. Though I don't feel strongly.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I also regarding St Anns DNA. but also can't overlook their college placement, even now.

GCS is a solid school, but also very much a full pay place. They dont have the endowment TTs have. They dont have the college placement of 2Ts like Regis or St Ann's or, if we were adding publics, schools like Bronx Science or Hunter.

I put GCS on the same tier as Beacon and Poly Prep and Berkeley Carroll. I think that's 3T.

And if I wanted to open a can of worms: I'd also put Avenues in this tier. It's a good education with solid college counseling and outcomes. Also pretty much full pay, but it is what it is

If you are going to be very granular and say 2T is just Regis, St. Ann's, and maybe Riverdale, then I would agree that Grace is 3T. Though if also being that granular, I would likely differentiate it from Berkeley Carroll and make that 4T. If you are doing a broader view of 2T then Grace sneaks in.

Agreed that Avenues is an odd duck. Probably agree with you on the tiering. But it draws a different crowd. And I know some people who sent their kid for elementary (particularly those who live downtown for whom it was convenient) and maxed out the language portion then applied out as they felt that that was its primary differentiating factor and the HS was not as good.

Okay, I'll try. I agree that GCS is getting rising in ranks - just 3-4 years ago they'd take anyone who could pay and was tier 4 - but it's not tier 2. I don't have deep insight into all these schools so this is just my take as a person who has two kids in private high schools in nyc, has been through the application process twice as an unhooked family, and follows college placement somewhat. I'm sure there are glaring errors.

(these aren't ranked within tiers)

tier 1
Trinity
Collegiate
Dalton
Spence
Brearley
HM
Chapin

tier 2
St Ann's
Regis
Riverdale
Fieldstone
Marymount
Sacred Heart
Nightingale

tier 3
Loyola
GCS
Packer
Poly
Avenues
Friends Seminary

Tier 4
BFS
BC
Basis
Hewitt
Dwight
Trevor
Calhoun
Hackley
Lycée
UNIS
Xavier/Fordham Prep
Notre Dame/DA/SVF

--

Are Marymount, Sacred Heart , Nightingale still considered T2? Looking at their instagram pages, the college results look more T3.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Schools could also cut back on financial aid and it likely would not be really noticed. There is much less disclosed about this than for colleges. Easy way to save some money.

A lot of it goes to faculty kids, which they can't cut without losing out on their best faculty to other schools. If they stop offering financial aid to the handful of kids from Prep4Prep or whatever they do now, it would be incredibly noticeable and create a lot of outrage and yet barely register as a blip on their costs.

Fair point. It likely would be a drop in the bucket but better than nothing. I always crack up when these schools publicly pat themselves on the back about how much aid they give, when, as you noted, a big percentage of that aid is going to faculty kids.

They could still trim a bit around the edges and it might help some. But you are right that most of it is targeted and serves a purpose so would be hard to cut. But better than nothing.

Anonymous wrote:Schools could also cut back on financial aid and it likely would not be really noticed. There is much less disclosed about this than for colleges. Easy way to save some money.

A lot of it goes to faculty kids, which they can't cut without losing out on their best faculty to other schools. If they stop offering financial aid to the handful of kids from Prep4Prep or whatever they do now, it would be incredibly noticeable and create a lot of outrage and yet barely register as a blip on their costs.

Anonymous wrote:Salaries go up enough that though it doesn't necessarily keep pace, it is close enough. My kid went to public elementary and middle and is in private HS. If you told me when they were starting elementary that we would be paying $70k a year for HS I would have said no way - I was struggling with paying $40k a year for elementary at the time and decided not to. Which was a great choice. But our salaries have gone up enough that we can make $70k work, especially just for HS.

Yeah, but it’s not just HS. If you’re full pay for HS then you have to assume you’ll be full pay for college so there’s another 400k. I also don’t think you can assume in our current world that salaries will keep going up. We’re in our late 40s-50s and I’m definitely not assuming that our income will keep going up forever.

It is amazing to me how much money private schools waste on various special interests. My kids play sports and I love sports but the amount wasted on them by private schools is ridiculous. They commit to having a team but might have very few kids sign up but still have to pay for it (coach, transportation, sometimes facilities).

Similarly, there is lots of administrative bureaucracy that really is not necessary. But it makes some kids and families feel special. So they can't cut it.

Schools could also cut back on financial aid and it likely would not be really noticed. There is much less disclosed about this than for colleges. Easy way to save some money.

Some schools are also in much better shape facilities-wise than others.

Salaries go up enough that though it doesn't necessarily keep pace, it is close enough. My kid went to public elementary and middle and is in private HS. If you told me when they were starting elementary that we would be paying $70k a year for HS I would have said no way - I was struggling with paying $40k a year for elementary at the time and decided not to. Which was a great choice. But our salaries have gone up enough that we can make $70k work, especially just for HS.

Anonymous wrote:Just to add: the competitive pressure for TT/2T/3T private schools is much about what cool things the other schools are offering (STEM for example has been something they've been at each others' throats for for the last decade or so) than incremental tuition increases; nobody is picking Dalton over HM because it's $1k cheaper.

This all makes sense. I know a lot of rich families go to these schools. It just seems that there is a price point where the kids get richer and dumber, with many dual income professional parents (doctors, attorneys who aren’t rainmakers) opting out for public school or the suburbs. Tuition cannot keep outpacing inflation forever without some change of student body composition.

Just to add: the competitive pressure for TT/2T/3T private schools is much about what cool things the other schools are offering (STEM for example has been something they've been at each others' throats for for the last decade or so) than incremental tuition increases; nobody is picking Dalton over HM because it's $1k cheaper.

Anonymous wrote:What do people think tuition will look like in five years, or ten, or 15? At 70k now is a breaking point on the horizon? When do all but the most successful or those with family money drop out of the private school system?

I don't think $70k or $80k or even $100k is a barrier for enough families to be a problem, and frankly they can't afford to drop it by as much as you might think and still keep up the class sizes / administrative headcount / teacher quality / facilities / extracurriculars / financial aid that they care about; they'd rather lower their standards and accept dumber rich kids than move to 22 kids in a class and sack the football coach and the 7th grade DEI coordinator and end free tuition for faculty kids.

There are cheaper options - parochial schools of course but also some for-profits, BASIS is in the 40's - but then you lose a lot of the differentiators that motivate families to pay for private school, and with class size expansion delayed but not canceled and the city also seemingly about to embark on a wave of new school construction, the gap will probably only grow smaller in a few years.