CBC on the trial impact: Trump led most, but not all, surveys before the verdict; that hasn't changed. If there has been an effect, it's been so small that pollsters disagree on whether it's actually happened — in other words, if it was a methodological rounding error.

Bialik's assessment? Maybe "a point or two" of change — visible if "you kind of squint."

“Among the most notable findings in our poll: 21 percent of independents said the conviction made them less likely to support Trump and that it would be an important factor in their vote. In a close election, small shifts among independent and swing voters could determine the outcome.”
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/06/17/trouble-for-trump-in-a-new-poll-on-his-conviction-00163498

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

The reference to Polymarkets in this tweet seems to contradict it. Polymarkets currently has the chance that DJT wins at 56%

https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1718579491926

This is what is at the site.

Anonymous wrote:

The reference to Polymarkets in this tweet seems to contradict it. Polymarkets currently has the chance that DJT wins at 56%

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Republicans continuing their two-year trend by underperforming again. But polls, polls, polls.

"It should have been a drama-free race.

Instead, the special election for Ohio’s deep-red 6th Congressional District turned out to be something of a nail-biter, with the Democratic candidate far exceeding expectations.

Johnson had represented the 6th district since 2011, winning reelection in 2022 by 35 points. Trump would have carried the district based on its current makeup by 29 points.

But GOP state Sen. Michael Rulli only defeated the Democratic nominee, Michael Kripchak, by about 9 points, based on the latest vote count with more than 95 percent reporting. That’s a roughly 20 percent overperformance for the Democratic candidate from what was expected for this district."

https://www.yahoo.com/news/gop-averts-disaster-ohio-shocker-040220679.html

As hard as the billionaires and the media outlets they own are pushing and massaging us all toward Trump, I don’t think a lot of people are going to head that way. Trump and the GOP are vile.

The GOP losing this much ground in a safe district ought to terrify the cluck out of them, and it probably does, which is why we’re seeing the media freaking out and so obviously working on behalf of the GOP.

Historically the Democrats were the party that underperformed midterms and special elections as the high engagement voters tended to be Republicans, which is why Republicans always overperformed compared to the Democrats in midterms and off year elections. However, the last few elections have seen a neat reversal. Democrats are now the high engagement voters who turn out in midterms and off year/special elections whereas a higher percentage of the Republican leaning base are low engagement voters, who only turn out for presidential elections - if they feel like it.

Which is why no one, Democrats or Republicans, are "freaking out" or encouraged by what you think you're seeing in the Ohio primary. Trump is on the ballot and will be turning out all the low engagement voters specifically for him on election day and they will likely vote down the ballot R.

Anonymous wrote:

That's hardly a blowout and we're 5 months away from the election. Honestly I'm not happy that Virginia is a toss-up now because I really don't want to vote for either of these two decrepit old men

Anonymous wrote:Republicans continuing their two-year trend by underperforming again. But polls, polls, polls.

"It should have been a drama-free race.

Instead, the special election for Ohio’s deep-red 6th Congressional District turned out to be something of a nail-biter, with the Democratic candidate far exceeding expectations.

Johnson had represented the 6th district since 2011, winning reelection in 2022 by 35 points. Trump would have carried the district based on its current makeup by 29 points.

But GOP state Sen. Michael Rulli only defeated the Democratic nominee, Michael Kripchak, by about 9 points, based on the latest vote count with more than 95 percent reporting. That’s a roughly 20 percent overperformance for the Democratic candidate from what was expected for this district."

https://www.yahoo.com/news/gop-averts-disaster-ohio-shocker-040220679.html

As hard as the billionaires and the media outlets they own are pushing and massaging us all toward Trump, I don’t think a lot of people are going to head that way. Trump and the GOP are vile.

The GOP losing this much ground in a safe district ought to terrify the cluck out of them, and it probably does, which is why we’re seeing the media freaking out and so obviously working on behalf of the GOP.

Anonymous wrote:Are democrats panicking? They're calling for Sotomayor and Kagan to step down now. Why?

https://www.vox.com/scotus/354381/supreme-court-sotomayor-kagan-retire-now

Because the race is a toss-up and we don't want Trump, should he win (gd forbid), getting to appoint two more justices. Does that make sense?

Should he lose - please, gd - I bet you'll be wishing Thomas and Alito had retired back when ol Dumpy Pants was still in the WH.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It’s done. Start to plan for a Trump presidency. Biden throw this one away with his Israel play.

I stated this several times back in nov/dec on the original 2000 pages of the gaza thread and i was told i was nuts and that “no one would be talking about gaza in 6 months”.

Well, here we are.

Biden sold himself to zionists and now america as we know it is over

Immigration. Economy. Crime.

We’re talking about dems. Especially dems in swing states. Look at how many “protest” votes there were in the primaries. Biden is going to lose and i dont think he cares

Dp-are we talking about protest votes? You mean the 20% of the republican base that didn’t vote for Trump in the primaries?

Anonymous wrote:Are democrats panicking? They're calling for Sotomayor and Kagan to step down now. Why?

https://www.vox.com/scotus/354381/supreme-court-sotomayor-kagan-retire-now

Well you could have read the article and you would have your answer. Here’s the spoiler:
The Senate is really hard for dems to hold and republicans are traitors to their oath and the country. They have proven they won’t confirm democratic pres nominated sc justices.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It’s done. Start to plan for a Trump presidency. Biden throw this one away with his Israel play.

I stated this several times back in nov/dec on the original 2000 pages of the gaza thread and i was told i was nuts and that “no one would be talking about gaza in 6 months”.

Well, here we are.

Biden sold himself to zionists and now america as we know it is over

Immigration. Economy. Crime.

We’re talking about dems. Especially dems in swing states. Look at how many “protest” votes there were in the primaries. Biden is going to lose and i dont think he cares

Are democrats panicking? They're calling for Sotomayor and Kagan to step down now. Why?

https://www.vox.com/scotus/354381/supreme-court-sotomayor-kagan-retire-now

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It’s done. Start to plan for a Trump presidency. Biden throw this one away with his Israel play.

I stated this several times back in nov/dec on the original 2000 pages of the gaza thread and i was told i was nuts and that “no one would be talking about gaza in 6 months”.

Well, here we are.

Biden sold himself to zionists and now america as we know it is over

Immigration. Economy. Crime.