Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The data is very encouraging. https://coronavirus.maryland.gov/ The positivity rate dropped from 27% to 7.6%, number of currently hospitalized dropped from 1700 to 1000, number of death dropped from more than 50 to 9 over about a month.
And we still have almost 3 months until school starts. Planning to keep schools closed is totally unacceptable. Other areas/countries are planning to have students in class earlier than usual to make up for the lost instruction. I agree that if schools still do not open for ALL students in MoCo, it will not be swallowed easily by public.

Here's data by county:
https://phpa.health.maryland.gov/Documents/Positivity%20by%20Jurisdiction.pdf

MoCo has a 10.8% positive rate, 3rd highest in the state.

My thinking is that MoCo will make a more restrictive decision compared to many MD counties (except PG and Baltimore), because the numbers and rates are so high comparatively.

The MoCo data dashboard says it’s 12% (using three-day average): https://montgomerycountymd.gov/HHS/RightNav/Coronavirus-data.html

In less than 2 weeks, it will be less than 8%. In less than 4 weeks it will be less than 5%. By the end of July, it will be less than 3%. By the end of August, it will be less than 1%. This assumes MoCo continues to open up. Save this post.

I came up with the above prediction through my statistical programming two days ago. I'm still behind it.

From your mouth to gods ears!

Based on all the publicly available data since the beginning of this, each one of those predictions have a probability of 98% to be true. If you call that wishful thinking so be it. I'm just curious analyzing all this.

Based on my software and available data, I made the above predictions 8 days ago on June 7th, when MoCo's three day moving average for positivity rate was 12%. Some people mocked me. Today MoCo's moving average is 7%. I think we can check off the first prediction. I'm still behind the remaining predictions.

The second of my 4 predictions is now also met 3 weeks and 3 days after. When I made these predictions on June 7th, MoCo's three day moving average was 12%. Today it is 5%. I'm still behind my remaining 2 predictions.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:With numbers being so good and getting better every day, I don't see how students would not be allowed for in-person education. Some people say other parts of US not so good, people may travel to other states etc. Closing schools because some people might travel to other states is laughable. Just a lame excuse. If students are not allowed to schools, I will riot very hard. I'm paying taxes. If you want absolutely zero risk, you are welcome to stay at home. But you can't collect salary from my taxes. Sorry.

LOL at you rioting. You're not a rioter.

You are pathetic. How do you know me? I hope I don't have to, but rest assured, you'll see me there if it comes to that.

Screaming in the school supply section of the North Bethesda Target is NOT a riot, Brenda.

I will riot too. Plenty of people will, in case schools don't open.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
I absolutely agree with you. Unfortunately because FCPS already announced that they will be having DL and possibly only 2 days a week of in person school I don't think MCPS or DCPS will stray too far from that. I wish they would but I just don't think it will happen.

This. I strongly want schools to be open 100% in-person, but if FCPS and DCPS are doing 2 days/week, there's no way MCPS is going to be a trailblazer and offer 5 days/week. It's just not in the MCPS DNA to innovate.

Heck, when things first shut down and they had free lunch distribution sites, they had only 20 and none in upcounty (Damascus) nor in Bethesda/Potomac. Meanwhile, Anne Arundel, with a smaller school system, had 40+ distribution sites including mobile locations like the parking lot of community centers.

MCPS finally caught up to Anne Arundel a few weeks later, and they now offer 40+ sites, including one in Damascus.

Just being realistic here -- start planning _now_ that your kids will be in school at most 2 days/week this fall, and maybe through the spring too. Even if we have a vaccine ready in a few months, it will take at least 6 months to vaccinate 330 million people.

In terms of MCPS and innovation, it is the school system that thought they should develop their own curriculum, so they do think outside the box (not necessarily in a good way) on some things.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The data is very encouraging. https://coronavirus.maryland.gov/ The positivity rate dropped from 27% to 7.6%, number of currently hospitalized dropped from 1700 to 1000, number of death dropped from more than 50 to 9 over about a month.
And we still have almost 3 months until school starts. Planning to keep schools closed is totally unacceptable. Other areas/countries are planning to have students in class earlier than usual to make up for the lost instruction. I agree that if schools still do not open for ALL students in MoCo, it will not be swallowed easily by public.

Here's data by county:
https://phpa.health.maryland.gov/Documents/Positivity%20by%20Jurisdiction.pdf

MoCo has a 10.8% positive rate, 3rd highest in the state.

My thinking is that MoCo will make a more restrictive decision compared to many MD counties (except PG and Baltimore), because the numbers and rates are so high comparatively.

The MoCo data dashboard says it’s 12% (using three-day average): https://montgomerycountymd.gov/HHS/RightNav/Coronavirus-data.html

In less than 2 weeks, it will be less than 8%. In less than 4 weeks it will be less than 5%. By the end of July, it will be less than 3%. By the end of August, it will be less than 1%. This assumes MoCo continues to open up. Save this post.

I came up with the above prediction through my statistical programming two days ago. I'm still behind it.

From your mouth to gods ears!

Based on all the publicly available data since the beginning of this, each one of those predictions have a probability of 98% to be true. If you call that wishful thinking so be it. I'm just curious analyzing all this.

Based on my software and available data, I made the above predictions 8 days ago on June 7th, when MoCo's three day moving average for positivity rate was 12%. Some people mocked me. Today MoCo's moving average is 7%. I think we can check off the first prediction. I'm still behind the remaining predictions.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
I absolutely agree with you. Unfortunately because FCPS already announced that they will be having DL and possibly only 2 days a week of in person school I don't think MCPS or DCPS will stray too far from that. I wish they would but I just don't think it will happen.

This. I strongly want schools to be open 100% in-person, but if FCPS and DCPS are doing 2 days/week, there's no way MCPS is going to be a trailblazer and offer 5 days/week. It's just not in the MCPS DNA to innovate.

Heck, when things first shut down and they had free lunch distribution sites, they had only 20 and none in upcounty (Damascus) nor in Bethesda/Potomac. Meanwhile, Anne Arundel, with a smaller school system, had 40+ distribution sites including mobile locations like the parking lot of community centers.

MCPS finally caught up to Anne Arundel a few weeks later, and they now offer 40+ sites, including one in Damascus.

Just being realistic here -- start planning _now_ that your kids will be in school at most 2 days/week this fall, and maybe through the spring too. Even if we have a vaccine ready in a few months, it will take at least 6 months to vaccinate 330 million people.

Anonymous wrote:I disagree. I think they’re leaning toward hybrid.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:With numbers being so good and getting better every day, I don't see how students would not be allowed for in-person education. Some people say other parts of US not so good, people may travel to other states etc. Closing schools because some people might travel to other states is laughable. Just a lame excuse. If students are not allowed to schools, I will riot very hard. I'm paying taxes. If you want absolutely zero risk, you are welcome to stay at home. But you can't collect salary from my taxes. Sorry.

LOL. I hope making this strident declaration on a random internet message board made you feel powerful, and please feel free to "riot," both "very hard" or otherwise. And yes, dear, they can and will "collect salary from (your) taxes for distance learning." Just watch them. Sorry.

Better get your gear ready. The just-announced Hogan budget has all sorts of DL provisions.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yeah, the idea that public school is some kind of nom-essential luxury that parents wrongly think of as an entitlement is...something. It's one of THE major universal institutions in all modern first world countries. And it IS an entitlement! It's not a luxury, everyone pays taxes because children, NOT their parents, are ENTITLED to an education. It is a right of residence and a key institution of social reproduction.

Now, whether and how much schooling happens in person during a pandemic is more of a logistical question, I'm not saying therefore we have to go back 5 days a week. But the whole framing that school is NOT essential and that it's selfish of PARENTS to want it is one I strongly reject. With lots of caps.

Well said. The PP who thinks public school is a non-essential privilege embodies everything that's wrong with America.

Oh for God's sake. THEY ARE GOING TO HAVE THEIR PUBLIC SCHOOL They are going to be educated to the standards set by the state.

They are just not going to have it in the format you want it. That's sad for you, but oh well.

It's not sad for PP, it's sad for her kids. What's also sad is how dismissive and even gleeful you seem to be about that. I hope your kids can find someone to teach them remotely about empathy, since it seems like you are unable to do it in person.

What's even sadder is that 126,000 people have died from this virus and 2.6 million have been infected in less than six months. Schools aren't doing distance learning just to inconvenience you or make your kids sad.

Oh, I didn’t mean PP’s kids would be sad (my own kids are actually pretty happy not to go to school, at least for now). I meant it’s sad for this whole generation of kids that there is little consideration of the actual costs and benefits of keeping schools closed indefinitely. Little attention is being paid to the pretty unanimous expert assessments that closing schools has minimal benefit for preventing overall deaths.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yeah, the idea that public school is some kind of nom-essential luxury that parents wrongly think of as an entitlement is...something. It's one of THE major universal institutions in all modern first world countries. And it IS an entitlement! It's not a luxury, everyone pays taxes because children, NOT their parents, are ENTITLED to an education. It is a right of residence and a key institution of social reproduction.

Now, whether and how much schooling happens in person during a pandemic is more of a logistical question, I'm not saying therefore we have to go back 5 days a week. But the whole framing that school is NOT essential and that it's selfish of PARENTS to want it is one I strongly reject. With lots of caps.

Well said. The PP who thinks public school is a non-essential privilege embodies everything that's wrong with America.

Oh for God's sake. THEY ARE GOING TO HAVE THEIR PUBLIC SCHOOL They are going to be educated to the standards set by the state.

They are just not going to have it in the format you want it. That's sad for you, but oh well.

It's not sad for PP, it's sad for her kids. What's also sad is how dismissive and even gleeful you seem to be about that. I hope your kids can find someone to teach them remotely about empathy, since it seems like you are unable to do it in person.

What's even sadder is that 126,000 people have died from this virus and 2.6 million have been infected in less than six months. Schools aren't doing distance learning just to inconvenience you or make your kids sad.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yeah, the idea that public school is some kind of nom-essential luxury that parents wrongly think of as an entitlement is...something. It's one of THE major universal institutions in all modern first world countries. And it IS an entitlement! It's not a luxury, everyone pays taxes because children, NOT their parents, are ENTITLED to an education. It is a right of residence and a key institution of social reproduction.

Now, whether and how much schooling happens in person during a pandemic is more of a logistical question, I'm not saying therefore we have to go back 5 days a week. But the whole framing that school is NOT essential and that it's selfish of PARENTS to want it is one I strongly reject. With lots of caps.

Well said. The PP who thinks public school is a non-essential privilege embodies everything that's wrong with America.

Oh for God's sake. THEY ARE GOING TO HAVE THEIR PUBLIC SCHOOL They are going to be educated to the standards set by the state.

They are just not going to have it in the format you want it. That's sad for you, but oh well.

It's not sad for PP, it's sad for her kids. What's also sad is how dismissive and even gleeful you seem to be about that. I hope your kids can find someone to teach them remotely about empathy, since it seems like you are unable to do it in person.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:With numbers being so good and getting better every day, I don't see how students would not be allowed for in-person education. Some people say other parts of US not so good, people may travel to other states etc. Closing schools because some people might travel to other states is laughable. Just a lame excuse. If students are not allowed to schools, I will riot very hard. I'm paying taxes. If you want absolutely zero risk, you are welcome to stay at home. But you can't collect salary from my taxes. Sorry.

LOL. I hope making this strident declaration on a random internet message board made you feel powerful, and please feel free to "riot," both "very hard" or otherwise. And yes, dear, they can and will "collect salary from (your) taxes for distance learning." Just watch them. Sorry.

Better get your gear ready. The just-announced Hogan budget has all sorts of DL provisions.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yeah, the idea that public school is some kind of nom-essential luxury that parents wrongly think of as an entitlement is...something. It's one of THE major universal institutions in all modern first world countries. And it IS an entitlement! It's not a luxury, everyone pays taxes because children, NOT their parents, are ENTITLED to an education. It is a right of residence and a key institution of social reproduction.

Now, whether and how much schooling happens in person during a pandemic is more of a logistical question, I'm not saying therefore we have to go back 5 days a week. But the whole framing that school is NOT essential and that it's selfish of PARENTS to want it is one I strongly reject. With lots of caps.

Well said. The PP who thinks public school is a non-essential privilege embodies everything that's wrong with America.

Oh for God's sake. THEY ARE GOING TO HAVE THEIR PUBLIC SCHOOL They are going to be educated to the standards set by the state.

They are just not going to have it in the format you want it. That's sad for you, but oh well.

That is not at all what happened with DL in the spring. My kid was not educated at all. -DP

He probably didn’t log on.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yeah, the idea that public school is some kind of nom-essential luxury that parents wrongly think of as an entitlement is...something. It's one of THE major universal institutions in all modern first world countries. And it IS an entitlement! It's not a luxury, everyone pays taxes because children, NOT their parents, are ENTITLED to an education. It is a right of residence and a key institution of social reproduction.

Now, whether and how much schooling happens in person during a pandemic is more of a logistical question, I'm not saying therefore we have to go back 5 days a week. But the whole framing that school is NOT essential and that it's selfish of PARENTS to want it is one I strongly reject. With lots of caps.

Well said. The PP who thinks public school is a non-essential privilege embodies everything that's wrong with America.

Oh for God's sake. THEY ARE GOING TO HAVE THEIR PUBLIC SCHOOL They are going to be educated to the standards set by the state.

They are just not going to have it in the format you want it. That's sad for you, but oh well.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:With numbers being so good and getting better every day, I don't see how students would not be allowed for in-person education. Some people say other parts of US not so good, people may travel to other states etc. Closing schools because some people might travel to other states is laughable. Just a lame excuse. If students are not allowed to schools, I will riot very hard. I'm paying taxes. If you want absolutely zero risk, you are welcome to stay at home. But you can't collect salary from my taxes. Sorry.

LOL. I hope making this strident declaration on a random internet message board made you feel powerful, and please feel free to "riot," both "very hard" or otherwise. And yes, dear, they can and will "collect salary from (your) taxes for distance learning." Just watch them. Sorry.