Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:assuming there will be elections at the moment is quite a reach.

Really? Elections have been happening all over the country as we speak. Dem have been overperforming relative to expectations but then again, we should have expected it with an unpopular sitting GOP POTUS. We've seen this same story play out over and over since 2017 with two of the three most unpopular presidents ever in office.

You don't see we are on the precipice of a manufactured justification for martial law?

It would be very hard for Trump to suspend elections in a single state, let alone a significant number of them.

The states hold elections. They send Senators and Reps to Washington. Period.

If there's a potential mechanism for POTUS to stop them please educate us. NP

There will certainly be elections. There are even elections in Russia and Iran. But the question is whether they will be free and fair.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:assuming there will be elections at the moment is quite a reach.

Really? Elections have been happening all over the country as we speak. Dem have been overperforming relative to expectations but then again, we should have expected it with an unpopular sitting GOP POTUS. We've seen this same story play out over and over since 2017 with two of the three most unpopular presidents ever in office.

You don't see we are on the precipice of a manufactured justification for martial law?

It would be very hard for Trump to suspend elections in a single state, let alone a significant number of them.

The states hold elections. They send Senators and Reps to Washington. Period.

If there's a potential mechanism for POTUS to stop them please educate us. NP

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:assuming there will be elections at the moment is quite a reach.

Really? Elections have been happening all over the country as we speak. Dem have been overperforming relative to expectations but then again, we should have expected it with an unpopular sitting GOP POTUS. We've seen this same story play out over and over since 2017 with two of the three most unpopular presidents ever in office.

You don't see we are on the precipice of a manufactured justification for martial law?

Anonymous wrote:assuming there will be elections at the moment is quite a reach.

Really? Elections have been happening all over the country as we speak. Dem have been overperforming relative to expectations but then again, we should have expected it with an unpopular sitting GOP POTUS. We've seen this same story play out over and over since 2017 with two of the three most unpopular presidents ever in office.

Anonymous wrote:assuming there will be elections at the moment is quite a reach.

Agree. We have the military in LA, senators being dragged out by law enforcement bc Kristi noem can’t handle any questions.

Step in line or law enforcement will come after you is hardly conducive to a free and fair election.

assuming there will be elections at the moment is quite a reach.

Anonymous wrote:Job approval:
43%-52% (-9) Econ/YouGov
43%-54% (-11) Civiqs
42%-55% (-13) Navigator
40%-53% (-13) YouGov
38%-54% (-16) Quinnipiac
39%-60% (-21) AP-NORC


Immigration approval
37%-52% (-15) WaPo
43%-54% (-11) Quinnipiac (Q)
Deportations
39%-50% (-11) YouGov
40%-56% (-16) Q
Overall approval
43%-52% (-9) Econ/YouGov
40%-53% (-13) YouGov
38%-54% (-16) Q
Budget Bill
30%-50% (-20) Econ/YG

Brutal numbers

These approval numbers look similar to Biden 2024 and Trump 2020 which is very good news for Democratic politicians in upcoming elections.

Job approval:
43%-52% (-9) Econ/YouGov
43%-54% (-11) Civiqs
42%-55% (-13) Navigator
40%-53% (-13) YouGov
38%-54% (-16) Quinnipiac
39%-60% (-21) AP-NORC


Immigration approval
37%-52% (-15) WaPo
43%-54% (-11) Quinnipiac (Q)
Deportations
39%-50% (-11) YouGov
40%-56% (-16) Q
Overall approval
43%-52% (-9) Econ/YouGov
40%-53% (-13) YouGov
38%-54% (-16) Q
Budget Bill
30%-50% (-20) Econ/YG

Brutal numbers

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Do we really need a poll to tell us how terrible Trump is?

We know how you feel. But how do other people feel? Polls may have issues with accuracy but they're all we've got. So that's what we look at.

Did 2016 and 2024 teach you nothing about polls? Trump is like teflon, they may not agree but they’d still support him and zero people are standing up to him so who cares about a poll, it will have zero impact on Trump or his supporters.

2016 was before Trump ever had one minute in actual government power, and was only a curated media property.

Federal lawsuit says the voting machines in 2024 did not accurately tabulate votes.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Do we really need a poll to tell us how terrible Trump is?

We know how you feel. But how do other people feel? Polls may have issues with accuracy but they're all we've got. So that's what we look at.

Did 2016 and 2024 teach you nothing about polls? Trump is like teflon, they may not agree but they’d still support him and zero people are standing up to him so who cares about a poll, it will have zero impact on Trump or his supporters.

If you look at the Republican House and Senate, you will see that's false. If you just complain with your head in the sand, you won't see anything.

Examples with tangible results?

Trump's BBB still hasn't passed the Senate

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Do we really need a poll to tell us how terrible Trump is?

We know how you feel. But how do other people feel? Polls may have issues with accuracy but they're all we've got. So that's what we look at.

Did 2016 and 2024 teach you nothing about polls? Trump is like teflon, they may not agree but they’d still support him and zero people are standing up to him so who cares about a poll, it will have zero impact on Trump or his supporters.

If you look at the Republican House and Senate, you will see that's false. If you just complain with your head in the sand, you won't see anything.

Examples with tangible results?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Do we really need a poll to tell us how terrible Trump is?

We know how you feel. But how do other people feel? Polls may have issues with accuracy but they're all we've got. So that's what we look at.

Did 2016 and 2024 teach you nothing about polls? Trump is like teflon, they may not agree but they’d still support him and zero people are standing up to him so who cares about a poll, it will have zero impact on Trump or his supporters.

If you look at the Republican House and Senate, you will see that's false. If you just complain with your head in the sand, you won't see anything.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Do we really need a poll to tell us how terrible Trump is?

We know how you feel. But how do other people feel? Polls may have issues with accuracy but they're all we've got. So that's what we look at.

Did 2016 and 2024 teach you nothing about polls? Trump is like teflon, they may not agree but they’d still support him and zero people are standing up to him so who cares about a poll, it will have zero impact on Trump or his supporters.

Trump has a high floor of guaranteed support but it's the 5% to 10% of true swing voters who matter as they determine national elections.

When POTUS polling averages suggests a 50% job approval rating that sticks for several months, the sitting POTUS can be considered adequately popular at the time and not a drag on the party.

When POTUS polling averages suggests a 40% job approval rating that sticks for several months as we've recently seen with Biden and and Trump 1st term, the sitting POTUS is a drag on the party and if that unpopular during an election year, the incumbent party has zero chance of retaining The White House. We saw this play out in 2020 and 2024 when even weak POTUS candidates were able to beat the incumbent party candidate and we'll likely see it again in 2028.

Yes, polling averages matter.

For those that have a NYT's subscription and are into polls, the NYT has a poll tracker that they update daily. It aggregates the results across polls. Today, June 12, Trump is at an average of 52% disapproval/44% approval. His disapproval numbers in the two most recent polls have risen sharply (AP-NORCE +21 and Quinnipiac +16).

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/donald-trump-approval-rating-polls.html