Anonymous
Post 09/30/2020 23:28     Subject: Post your electoral map prediction!
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:There is a concerted effort to flip some of the delegations based on this scenario.


Have you seen anything written up about this? I'd like to see a breakdown of the state delegations and which congressional seats might be ripe for flipping.

Yes - Pelosi sent a letter to her caucus with details and it’s in the 2020 House thread. From what I remember, another seat in Pennsylvania, Michigan or Wisconsin would help, or flipping any of the single House member states - Montana and Alaska aren’t out of reach.
Anonymous
Post 09/30/2020 23:28     Subject: Post your electoral map prediction!
DP here: but yes, this is the nightmare scenario. And honestly, it’s a very plausible scenarioZ

Minnesota is very white and a lot of them were freaked out by the rioting. Trump dominates once you get outside the MSP suburbs. This will end up being s much closer state. Biden needs to get to MN and visit the Iron Range, which is a union mining stronghold that has flipped to Trump.


It is definitely not VERY plausible. 538 gives a tie a 1% chance some of the time. Rest of the time, it's less than that.

Most of MN's people live in the Twin Cities and suburbs. Who cares that Trump dominates outside? That's like saying that Trump dominates outside of the Five Boroughs. Doesn't matter.

538 has Biden up 9 in MN.
Anonymous
Post 09/30/2020 23:21     Subject: Post your electoral map prediction!
Anonymous wrote:There is a concerted effort to flip some of the delegations based on this scenario.


Have you seen anything written up about this? I'd like to see a breakdown of the state delegations and which congressional seats might be ripe for flipping.
Anonymous
Post 09/30/2020 23:16     Subject: Post your electoral map prediction!
There is a concerted effort to flip some of the delegations based on this scenario.
Anonymous
Post 09/30/2020 23:13     Subject: Post your electoral map prediction!
Anonymous wrote:yes, 269-269 is the nightmare result and ends in a Trump second term, but based on current polling, that is highly unlikely.


Dems could play hardball and refuse to recognize House delegations from those Red states on January 3
Anonymous
Post 09/30/2020 23:10     Subject: Re:Post your electoral map prediction!
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:

Not this PP, and yes MN and AZ are solid for Biden right now, but this is worthy of discussion because this is the nightmare tie scenario that goes the House. Right?


DP here: but yes, this is the nightmare scenario. And honestly, it’s a very plausible scenarioZ

Minnesota is very white and a lot of them were freaked out by the rioting. Trump dominates once you get outside the MSP suburbs. This will end up being s much closer state. Biden needs to get to MN and visit the Iron Range, which is a union mining stronghold that has flipped to Trump.
Anonymous
Post 09/30/2020 23:10     Subject: Post your electoral map prediction!
yes, 269-269 is the nightmare result and ends in a Trump second term, but based on current polling, that is highly unlikely.
Anonymous
Post 09/30/2020 23:05     Subject: Re:Post your electoral map prediction!
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:

Not this PP, and yes MN and AZ are solid for Biden right now, but this is worthy of discussion because this is the nightmare tie scenario that goes the House. Right?

Also, would be more plausible with Nebraska all red and Maine all blue since those are both more likely. But still, nightmare!
Anonymous
Post 09/30/2020 23:03     Subject: Re:Post your electoral map prediction!
Anonymous wrote:

Not this PP, and yes MN and AZ are solid for Biden right now, but this is worthy of discussion because this is the nightmare tie scenario that goes the House. Right?
Anonymous
Post 09/30/2020 22:56     Subject: Post your electoral map prediction!
AZ and MN are both polling solidly for Biden.
Anonymous
Post 09/30/2020 22:55     Subject: Re:Post your electoral map prediction!
Anonymous
Post 09/30/2020 22:50     Subject: Post your electoral map prediction!
If Ohio isn't called on election day, they will announce the number of outstanding mail-in ballots to be counted and an expected announcement time.
Anonymous
Post 09/30/2020 22:42     Subject: Post your electoral map prediction!
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Will we know the Ohio results on election night?

I think we might know Florida.


If OH is really close, you wouldn’t know on election night. But, when Obama won in 08 and 12, he won OH both times and there was a projection for Ohio on election night. If Trump wins OH by like 2 points and they call OH for him on election night, that’s actually really bad for him nationally because he won it by 8 in 2016.


Good points.

I just learned that Ohio will start counting absentee ballots before Election Day, but I don't know the exact date.

Many key states won't start counting until election day.
Anonymous
Post 09/30/2020 22:36     Subject: Post your electoral map prediction!
Anonymous wrote:Will we know the Ohio results on election night?

I think we might know Florida.


If OH is really close, you wouldn’t know on election night. But, when Obama won in 08 and 12, he won OH both times and there was a projection for Ohio on election night. If Trump wins OH by like 2 points and they call OH for him on election night, that’s actually really bad for him nationally because he won it by 8 in 2016.
Anonymous
Post 09/30/2020 22:33     Subject: Post your electoral map prediction!
Will we know the Ohio results on election night?

I think we might know Florida.