Anonymous wrote:

I’m going to be as thrilled to vote against Elrich as I am Trump. I hate incompetence regardless of the party.

I 100% agree.

Me too. What a joke today was.

Agree. And I'm a Takoma Park Democrat--i.e. his base. It's not even the result--i.e. extended closure--that I think is unreasonable. But the incredible vague plan, inane standards, and disregard for economic hardship. He's playing at being President, as if he has a CDC and PPE manufacturing and rigorous data at his disposal, instead of recognizing he is county executive with none of the above, and questionable authority to boot.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:As a data scientist, if we look at what data is published by the state. https://data.imap.maryland.gov/search?q=COVID-19 (time series data - health site gives daily snapshot)
look at what we know about COVID in Moco specifically around the nursing home cases , (deaths taking 90% of the Moco deaths this week), and expecting that nursing home patients are unlikely to recover at the same rate or with same outcome as someone outside the nursing home, *

the criteria Erlich and Gayles - even if we give the benefit that it is well intentioned, is impossible to achieve.

There really should be a robust committee of medical professionals around this and with transparent data on this. Hogan should not allow them to do a separate approach.

*The situation in the nursing homes is really terrible for all involved. Really terrible. There is no science to show that the outcome for those Moco nursing home patients who acquired the disease weeks ago will miraculously have better than national outcomes and there will be a long tail of daily deaths from this. That said, the spread, from the nursing homes to staff and community can be prevented. or at least significantly slowed Hogan outlined that plan weeks ago, but its very unclear to me what is actually happening at the MoCo level. For the normal citizen, us locking down more will have no impact on that terrible situation.

I 100% agree. I am not a data scientist, but can do basic descriptive statistics. I got the sense MoCo's approach didn't make sense, so brought the numbers to my husband, who does data analysis all day long, and supervises data scientists.

He said, "That's the stupidest fking approach I've ever seen."

I supervise some data scientists these days who do visualizations. I think a student from UMD could do quick visualizations (Power BI / tableau) and that help explain the absurdity of this pretty quickly. My skills are a bit rusty. It's not just showing where it doesn't make sense, but hyper focus on resources where we need it.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's been made pretty clear northern va, moco, and dc will be in lockstep. Just pay attention to what those other areas are saying and ignore this wishy washy nonsense.

? So you're saying MoCo will just blindly go along with NoVA and the District, even if MoCo hasn't met its unattainable criteria for reopening? I doubt it.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:As a data scientist, if we look at what data is published by the state. https://data.imap.maryland.gov/search?q=COVID-19 (time series data - health site gives daily snapshot)
look at what we know about COVID in Moco specifically around the nursing home cases , (deaths taking 90% of the Moco deaths this week), and expecting that nursing home patients are unlikely to recover at the same rate or with same outcome as someone outside the nursing home, *

the criteria Erlich and Gayles - even if we give the benefit that it is well intentioned, is impossible to achieve.

There really should be a robust committee of medical professionals around this and with transparent data on this. Hogan should not allow them to do a separate approach.

*The situation in the nursing homes is really terrible for all involved. Really terrible. There is no science to show that the outcome for those Moco nursing home patients who acquired the disease weeks ago will miraculously have better than national outcomes and there will be a long tail of daily deaths from this. That said, the spread, from the nursing homes to staff and community can be prevented. or at least significantly slowed Hogan outlined that plan weeks ago, but its very unclear to me what is actually happening at the MoCo level. For the normal citizen, us locking down more will have no impact on that terrible situation.

I 100% agree. I am not a data scientist, but can do basic descriptive statistics. I got the sense MoCo's approach didn't make sense, so brought the numbers to my husband, who does data analysis all day long, and supervises data scientists.

He said, "That's the stupidest fking approach I've ever seen."

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:As a data scientist, if we look at what data is published by the state. https://data.imap.maryland.gov/search?q=COVID-19 (time series data - health site gives daily snapshot)
look at what we know about COVID in Moco specifically around the nursing home cases , (deaths taking 90% of the Moco deaths this week), and expecting that nursing home patients are unlikely to recover at the same rate or with same outcome as someone outside the nursing home, *

the criteria Erlich and Gayles - even if we give the benefit that it is well intentioned, is impossible to achieve.

There really should be a robust committee of medical professionals around this and with transparent data on this. Hogan should not allow them to do a separate approach.

*The situation in the nursing homes is really terrible for all involved. Really terrible. There is no science to show that the outcome for those Moco nursing home patients who acquired the disease weeks ago will miraculously have better than national outcomes and there will be a long tail of daily deaths from this. That said, the spread, from the nursing homes to staff and community can be prevented. or at least significantly slowed Hogan outlined that plan weeks ago, but its very unclear to me what is actually happening at the MoCo level. For the normal citizen, us locking down more will have no impact on that terrible situation.

+1. To all this. The thing that concerns me the most is that there appears to be two people making decisions for Montgomery county (vs. the team Hogan has) and that the approach seems haphazard and not driven by the data. I get his periodic email is and have seen nothing about how they are going to address the spread within and between nursing homes.

I wonder if ElricH would be going against the state if the governor were another democrat (and in saying this as a Dem), and how stubborn he will be to stick to these criteria. It literally could be months before we get to Phase 1.

Anonymous wrote:It's been made pretty clear northern va, moco, and dc will be in lockstep. Just pay attention to what those other areas are saying and ignore this wishy washy nonsense.

Anonymous wrote:I"m hoping Hogan will eventually override this, or Elrich etc will be forced to backtrack.

Anonymous wrote:As a data scientist, if we look at what data is published by the state. https://data.imap.maryland.gov/search?q=COVID-19 (time series data - health site gives daily snapshot)
look at what we know about COVID in Moco specifically around the nursing home cases , (deaths taking 90% of the Moco deaths this week), and expecting that nursing home patients are unlikely to recover at the same rate or with same outcome as someone outside the nursing home, *

the criteria Erlich and Gayles - even if we give the benefit that it is well intentioned, is impossible to achieve.

There really should be a robust committee of medical professionals around this and with transparent data on this. Hogan should not allow them to do a separate approach.

*The situation in the nursing homes is really terrible for all involved. Really terrible. There is no science to show that the outcome for those Moco nursing home patients who acquired the disease weeks ago will miraculously have better than national outcomes and there will be a long tail of daily deaths from this. That said, the spread, from the nursing homes to staff and community can be prevented. or at least significantly slowed Hogan outlined that plan weeks ago, but its very unclear to me what is actually happening at the MoCo level. For the normal citizen, us locking down more will have no impact on that terrible situation.

Anonymous wrote:As a data scientist, if we look at what data is published by the state. https://data.imap.maryland.gov/search?q=COVID-19 (time series data - health site gives daily snapshot)
look at what we know about COVID in Moco specifically around the nursing home cases , (deaths taking 90% of the Moco deaths this week), and expecting that nursing home patients are unlikely to recover at the same rate or with same outcome as someone outside the nursing home, *

the criteria Erlich and Gayles - even if we give the benefit that it is well intentioned, is impossible to achieve.

There really should be a robust committee of medical professionals around this and with transparent data on this. Hogan should not allow them to do a separate approach.

*The situation in the nursing homes is really terrible for all involved. Really terrible. There is no science to show that the outcome for those Moco nursing home patients who acquired the disease weeks ago will miraculously have better than national outcomes and there will be a long tail of daily deaths from this. That said, the spread, from the nursing homes to staff and community can be prevented. or at least significantly slowed Hogan outlined that plan weeks ago, but its very unclear to me what is actually happening at the MoCo level. For the normal citizen, us locking down more will have no impact on that terrible situation.

The two concerns I bolded are the two that don't make sense to me.

Healthcare has not been forced to close by the shutdown. The reason fewer people are seeking ER treatment is not due to the shutdown, it's because people don't feel safe going. If opening up increases the amount of virus, even more people will feel unsafe and not go. The reason why doctors are canceling in person procedures is because they don't feel that they can do them safely. They worry about patients becoming infected with covid, and they worry about other things due to lack of PPE. Increasing the number of infections in the community will increase those problems. This is a problem that will definitely become worse, not better, if we reopen in a matter that isn't safe.

As for small businesses, we know that small businesses in places that aren't shut down are hurting too. We know that in places like Sweden, people are avoiding places, and businesses are still in jeopardy. Allowing these businesses to open, when the actual business won't be there to bring in money, is just a ploy to get out of paying unemployment to people, and without unemployment people will be hurting worse.

Anonymous wrote:So Elrich & Gayles say they need to see a 14-day decline in cases, deaths, hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and ER usage by COVID patients. Fine.

But here's the thing: We haven't actually been adding a huge number of cases or having a huge number of deaths per day.

I don't want to minimize cases or deaths, but I took a 7-day average for MoCo cases: it's 206. Keep in mind that, given a statewide case increase of about 1,000 per day, proportionately we should be adding about 170/day. So we're not doing hugely above what would be expected, and the overage is likely mostly due to universal nursing home testing (MoCo has a lot of nursing homes).

The 7-day average for daily deaths is 14.

So they want a decrease on daily deaths below 14? That's unrealistic, especially considering 90% of last week's deaths in MoCo were in nursing homes.