Anonymous
Post 03/21/2020 20:03     Subject: Anyone who still thinks this is no big deal...
Statistics and probability IS in the K-12 curriculum.

Fear of dying is in the theology curriculum.
Anonymous
Post 03/21/2020 20:03     Subject: Anyone who still thinks this is no big deal...
Anonymous wrote:Less than a 2 percent death rate. No need to overhype things. Shame on you.


If 100% of the US population gets it, that's 6 million deaths.

If 80% get it (which is predicted as no one has immunity), that's 5.2 million deaths.

No big deal.
Anonymous
Post 03/21/2020 19:53     Subject: Re:Anyone who still thinks this is no big deal...
Sorry no. The point is that if you are computing the death rate from the cases that are tested/treated in hospitals you are not getting the real death rate of the disease. You are mixing together the effects of 1) getting only the worse cases to the hospital (there are LOTS of people who got the disease in the mild form and never even went to the hospital.., 2) your own hospital/country/... ability to get those on ventilator (there is a reason why China built three extra hospitals in Wuhan -- they needed the extra beds -- the triage happening in France/Italy is because they are lacking the beds and the ventilators).
This is what is called "a selection effect" -- You are measuring a sample which has been "selected" (only the worse...)--

For measuring the death rate of the disease, you will need to know the total number of people who actually had the virus, not just the number of people you tested and received in the hospital.

So yes, you can compute a death rate from the recovered people but this is not a good indicator of the death rate of the disease itself -- That is why I say that the ratio of cured/treated is an OK proxy for the status of care in the county/hospital.... -- because it measures the number of the worst cases you were able to cure -- Both are linked because (cured+death=treated), and you could really use either one but again, you are not measuring the death rate of the disease itself.

The only set-up in which this number is known is the cruise ship which was quarantined -- The entire population of the ship was tested and we know how many got infected and how many died -- but here, the numbers are difficult to extrapolate to the general population because of course, the cruise demographics are nothing like a reflection of the true composition of a country (or even a town).

People can estimate how many people are believe to be infected (and one can do that with models) but these are still "educated guesses".

This is also why there are so many conflicting opinions -- There are A LOT of unknowns in this situation. There is no need to go all hysteria about it. So far, this disease has killed a thousand times less than the seasonal flu. When all is over, I would vote to make statistics and probability mandatory classes from the K to 12.

Anonymous
Post 03/21/2020 19:31     Subject: Re:Anyone who still thinks this is no big deal...
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:The only rate that is reliable is the mortality rate per inhabitants. All the other metrics are bogus because we DON'T KNOW how many people are actually affected.
I've generated the numbers -- (sources: Bing/covid, Realclearpolitics and Wikipedia (for the population of states).

When one plots that number, the US is not even in the top 20 --
I've also added the data per state in the US -- Can't attach PDF.
I use Rstudio but you can probably plot with any decent plotting program.

And it is very clear that Italy is an anomaly -- who knows what's wrong with their health care system?

here are the DATA --

and so NO, there is no Need to freak out -- be careful, sure! But freak out?? Nop.

USA:
State Deaths DeathPerMillions Cases CasesPerMilions Date
Washington 83 10.90 1524 200.13 3/21/20
Vermont 2 3.21 29 46.48 3/21/20
Louisiana 14 3.01 537 115.51 3/21/20
New York 46 2.36 8403 431.95 3/21/20
DC 1 1.42 81 114.77 3/21/20
Georgia 14 1.32 485 45.68 3/21/20
New Jersey 11 1.24 890 100.20 3/21/20
South Dakota 1 1.13 14 15.83 3/21/20
Connecticut 4 1.12 194 54.41 3/21/20
Oregon 3 0.71 114 27.03 3/21/20
Colorado 4 0.69 363 63.03 3/21/20
Nevada 2 0.65 109 35.39 3/21/20
California 24 0.61 1249 31.61 3/21/20
South Carolina 3 0.58 125 24.28 3/21/20
Wisconsin 3 0.52 210 36.07 3/21/20
Florida 11 0.51 563 26.21 3/21/20
Missouri 3 0.49 66 10.75 3/21/20
Kentucky 2 0.45 64 14.33 3/21/20
Indiana 3 0.45 86 12.77 3/21/20
Illinois 5 0.39 585 46.17 3/21/20
Kansas 1 0.34 50 17.16 3/21/20


World:
Country Deaths DeathPerMillions Cases CasesPerMilions Date
Italy 4,032 66.70 47,021 778.10 3/21/20
Spain 1,093 23.40 21,571 461.70 3/21/20
Iran 1,556 19.00 20,610 252.00 3/21/20
Luxembourg 5 8.20 484 796.40 3/21/20
Switzerland 57 6.70 5,616 659.40 3/21/20
France 450 6.70 12,612 188.30 3/21/20
Curaçao 1 6.30 3 18.90 3/21/20
Netherlands 106 6.20 2,994 173.80 3/21/20
Belgium 37 3.20 2,257 197.60 3/21/20
Martinique 1 2.70 32 85.00 3/21/20
United Kingdom 177 2.70 3,983 59.90 3/21/20
Guadeloupe 1 2.50 51 128.90 3/21/20
China 3,255 2.30 81,008 58.20 3/21/20
South Korea 102 2.00 8,799 169.90 3/21/20
Denmark 9 1.60 1,255 216.50 3/21/20
Sweden 16 1.60 1,639 161.00 3/21/20
Norway 7 1.30 1,994 375.20 3/21/20
Guyana 1 1.30 15 19.20 3/21/20
Greece 10 0.90 495 46.10 3/21/20
Austria 7 0.80 2,690 304.10 3/21/20
Germany 68 0.80 19,910 240.10 3/21/20
United States 275 0.80 19,774 60.40 3/21/20
Mauritius 1 0.80 14 11.10 3/21/20




No, more telling is to take all resolved cases,
and compare deats to recovered.
These tell you different tale.


This! It makes no sense to try to calculate a mortality rate from data that includes unresolved cases. This illness lasts for weeks. Are you really a data scientist, first PP?


Especially now when CA NYC will test only few and in thewhole US tons of home recoverng never tested.
Reolved are recrded tested deaths and recvered The only ACTUAL data.
Anonymous
Post 03/21/2020 19:28     Subject: Anyone who still thinks this is no big deal...
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:In the U.S. for 2018, there were 48,344 recorded suicides, up from 42,773 in 2014, according to the CDC's National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). On average, adjusted for age, the annual U.S. suicide rate increased 24% between 1999 and 2014, from 10.5 to 13.0 suicides per 100,000 people, the highest rate recorded in 28 years. I am sure we will surpass that this year due to this lock down and economic downturn.


Or there will be fewer because even the Jones are doing poorly so people don’t feel as much pressure to keep up with them?


Nah. Everything is relative. The rich will still have more than the poor people do. I don't think that ratio will change at all.
Anonymous
Post 03/21/2020 19:25     Subject: Re:Anyone who still thinks this is no big deal...
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:The only rate that is reliable is the mortality rate per inhabitants. All the other metrics are bogus because we DON'T KNOW how many people are actually affected.
I've generated the numbers -- (sources: Bing/covid, Realclearpolitics and Wikipedia (for the population of states).

When one plots that number, the US is not even in the top 20 --
I've also added the data per state in the US -- Can't attach PDF.
I use Rstudio but you can probably plot with any decent plotting program.

And it is very clear that Italy is an anomaly -- who knows what's wrong with their health care system?

here are the DATA --

and so NO, there is no Need to freak out -- be careful, sure! But freak out?? Nop.

USA:
State Deaths DeathPerMillions Cases CasesPerMilions Date
Washington 83 10.90 1524 200.13 3/21/20
Vermont 2 3.21 29 46.48 3/21/20
Louisiana 14 3.01 537 115.51 3/21/20
New York 46 2.36 8403 431.95 3/21/20
DC 1 1.42 81 114.77 3/21/20
Georgia 14 1.32 485 45.68 3/21/20
New Jersey 11 1.24 890 100.20 3/21/20
South Dakota 1 1.13 14 15.83 3/21/20
Connecticut 4 1.12 194 54.41 3/21/20
Oregon 3 0.71 114 27.03 3/21/20
Colorado 4 0.69 363 63.03 3/21/20
Nevada 2 0.65 109 35.39 3/21/20
California 24 0.61 1249 31.61 3/21/20
South Carolina 3 0.58 125 24.28 3/21/20
Wisconsin 3 0.52 210 36.07 3/21/20
Florida 11 0.51 563 26.21 3/21/20
Missouri 3 0.49 66 10.75 3/21/20
Kentucky 2 0.45 64 14.33 3/21/20
Indiana 3 0.45 86 12.77 3/21/20
Illinois 5 0.39 585 46.17 3/21/20
Kansas 1 0.34 50 17.16 3/21/20


World:
Country Deaths DeathPerMillions Cases CasesPerMilions Date
Italy 4,032 66.70 47,021 778.10 3/21/20
Spain 1,093 23.40 21,571 461.70 3/21/20
Iran 1,556 19.00 20,610 252.00 3/21/20
Luxembourg 5 8.20 484 796.40 3/21/20
Switzerland 57 6.70 5,616 659.40 3/21/20
France 450 6.70 12,612 188.30 3/21/20
Curaçao 1 6.30 3 18.90 3/21/20
Netherlands 106 6.20 2,994 173.80 3/21/20
Belgium 37 3.20 2,257 197.60 3/21/20
Martinique 1 2.70 32 85.00 3/21/20
United Kingdom 177 2.70 3,983 59.90 3/21/20
Guadeloupe 1 2.50 51 128.90 3/21/20
China 3,255 2.30 81,008 58.20 3/21/20
South Korea 102 2.00 8,799 169.90 3/21/20
Denmark 9 1.60 1,255 216.50 3/21/20
Sweden 16 1.60 1,639 161.00 3/21/20
Norway 7 1.30 1,994 375.20 3/21/20
Guyana 1 1.30 15 19.20 3/21/20
Greece 10 0.90 495 46.10 3/21/20
Austria 7 0.80 2,690 304.10 3/21/20
Germany 68 0.80 19,910 240.10 3/21/20
United States 275 0.80 19,774 60.40 3/21/20
Mauritius 1 0.80 14 11.10 3/21/20




No, more telling is to take all resolved cases,
and compare deats to recovered.
These tell you different tale.


This! It makes no sense to try to calculate a mortality rate from data that includes unresolved cases. This illness lasts for weeks. Are you really a data scientist, first PP?
Anonymous
Post 03/21/2020 19:18     Subject: Re:Anyone who still thinks this is no big deal...
Anonymous wrote:The only rate that is reliable is the mortality rate per inhabitants. All the other metrics are bogus because we DON'T KNOW how many people are actually affected.
I've generated the numbers -- (sources: Bing/covid, Realclearpolitics and Wikipedia (for the population of states).

When one plots that number, the US is not even in the top 20 --
I've also added the data per state in the US -- Can't attach PDF.
I use Rstudio but you can probably plot with any decent plotting program.

And it is very clear that Italy is an anomaly -- who knows what's wrong with their health care system?

here are the DATA --

and so NO, there is no Need to freak out -- be careful, sure! But freak out?? Nop.

USA:
State Deaths DeathPerMillions Cases CasesPerMilions Date
Washington 83 10.90 1524 200.13 3/21/20
Vermont 2 3.21 29 46.48 3/21/20
Louisiana 14 3.01 537 115.51 3/21/20
New York 46 2.36 8403 431.95 3/21/20
DC 1 1.42 81 114.77 3/21/20
Georgia 14 1.32 485 45.68 3/21/20
New Jersey 11 1.24 890 100.20 3/21/20
South Dakota 1 1.13 14 15.83 3/21/20
Connecticut 4 1.12 194 54.41 3/21/20
Oregon 3 0.71 114 27.03 3/21/20
Colorado 4 0.69 363 63.03 3/21/20
Nevada 2 0.65 109 35.39 3/21/20
California 24 0.61 1249 31.61 3/21/20
South Carolina 3 0.58 125 24.28 3/21/20
Wisconsin 3 0.52 210 36.07 3/21/20
Florida 11 0.51 563 26.21 3/21/20
Missouri 3 0.49 66 10.75 3/21/20
Kentucky 2 0.45 64 14.33 3/21/20
Indiana 3 0.45 86 12.77 3/21/20
Illinois 5 0.39 585 46.17 3/21/20
Kansas 1 0.34 50 17.16 3/21/20


World:
Country Deaths DeathPerMillions Cases CasesPerMilions Date
Italy 4,032 66.70 47,021 778.10 3/21/20
Spain 1,093 23.40 21,571 461.70 3/21/20
Iran 1,556 19.00 20,610 252.00 3/21/20
Luxembourg 5 8.20 484 796.40 3/21/20
Switzerland 57 6.70 5,616 659.40 3/21/20
France 450 6.70 12,612 188.30 3/21/20
Curaçao 1 6.30 3 18.90 3/21/20
Netherlands 106 6.20 2,994 173.80 3/21/20
Belgium 37 3.20 2,257 197.60 3/21/20
Martinique 1 2.70 32 85.00 3/21/20
United Kingdom 177 2.70 3,983 59.90 3/21/20
Guadeloupe 1 2.50 51 128.90 3/21/20
China 3,255 2.30 81,008 58.20 3/21/20
South Korea 102 2.00 8,799 169.90 3/21/20
Denmark 9 1.60 1,255 216.50 3/21/20
Sweden 16 1.60 1,639 161.00 3/21/20
Norway 7 1.30 1,994 375.20 3/21/20
Guyana 1 1.30 15 19.20 3/21/20
Greece 10 0.90 495 46.10 3/21/20
Austria 7 0.80 2,690 304.10 3/21/20
Germany 68 0.80 19,910 240.10 3/21/20
United States 275 0.80 19,774 60.40 3/21/20
Mauritius 1 0.80 14 11.10 3/21/20




No, more telling is to take all resolved cases,
and compare deats to recovered.
These tell you different tale.
Anonymous
Post 03/21/2020 18:55     Subject: Re:Anyone who still thinks this is no big deal...
An Italian Mayor ranted people were not exercising social distancing during lockdown.
Anonymous
Post 03/21/2020 18:28     Subject: Anyone who still thinks this is no big deal...
Anonymous wrote:In the U.S. for 2018, there were 48,344 recorded suicides, up from 42,773 in 2014, according to the CDC's National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). On average, adjusted for age, the annual U.S. suicide rate increased 24% between 1999 and 2014, from 10.5 to 13.0 suicides per 100,000 people, the highest rate recorded in 28 years. I am sure we will surpass that this year due to this lock down and economic downturn.


Or there will be fewer because even the Jones are doing poorly so people don’t feel as much pressure to keep up with them?
Anonymous
Post 03/21/2020 17:05     Subject: Anyone who still thinks this is no big deal...
In the U.S. for 2018, there were 48,344 recorded suicides, up from 42,773 in 2014, according to the CDC's National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). On average, adjusted for age, the annual U.S. suicide rate increased 24% between 1999 and 2014, from 10.5 to 13.0 suicides per 100,000 people, the highest rate recorded in 28 years. I am sure we will surpass that this year due to this lock down and economic downturn.
Anonymous
Post 03/21/2020 17:04     Subject: Anyone who still thinks this is no big deal...
Anonymous wrote:In Italy there are over 4000 suicide deaths, increase of 12% due to the economic downturn.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/suicide-in-italy-its-an-e_b_10597478


That article is from 2016 and the 4K number is during the period of a year.

Of course, recessions do cause deaths in a number of ways, including suicides. So you definitely have to focus on the health of the economy, not just how hospitals are doing. Its an impossible balance.
Anonymous
Post 03/21/2020 16:59     Subject: Anyone who still thinks this is no big deal...
In Italy there are over 4000 suicide deaths, increase of 12% due to the economic downturn.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/suicide-in-italy-its-an-e_b_10597478
Anonymous
Post 03/21/2020 16:24     Subject: Anyone who still thinks this is no big deal...
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Stuff of nightmares.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/amp/2020/03/the-story-of-a-coronavirus-infection.html


Scary but not at all unrealistic. Stay at home people.



It's scary because it's poorly written panic porn.


Sure gets those clicks, though.

“According to the paper, among people aged 49 or younger, only about 0.2% of those who contracted the disease died.”

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/20/health/covid-19-recovery-rates-intl/index.html


Ok, let’s say this is true. Experts think 40 to 80% of the population will get this because no one has immunity. There are about 200 million people in the US under age 50. If you take the lowest end of that — 40% — and take 0.2% of it, it’s still 160,000 deaths of young people in the US. Seasonal flu usually kills about 8,000 non-elderly people.

There is no way this shakes out that is not a big deal. Anyone who says it’s not a big deal is in denial.


I don’t understand the 40 to 80% statistic considering that everyone I know is social distancing. Are you saying most of those people are already infected? And not showing symptoms? Can you cite that statistic please?


Our social distancing is meant to delay the peak so our hospitals can cope, not to keep us from getting it.

Here is the Times article on estimates of percentage of the population that will get it under different scenarios: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/20/us/coronavirus-model-us-outbreak.html
Anonymous
Post 03/21/2020 16:20     Subject: Anyone who still thinks this is no big deal...
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Stuff of nightmares.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/amp/2020/03/the-story-of-a-coronavirus-infection.html


Scary but not at all unrealistic. Stay at home people.



It's scary because it's poorly written panic porn.


Sure gets those clicks, though.

“According to the paper, among people aged 49 or younger, only about 0.2% of those who contracted the disease died.”

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/20/health/covid-19-recovery-rates-intl/index.html


Ok, let’s say this is true. Experts think 40 to 80% of the population will get this because no one has immunity. There are about 200 million people in the US under age 50. If you take the lowest end of that — 40% — and take 0.2% of it, it’s still 160,000 deaths of young people in the US. Seasonal flu usually kills about 8,000 non-elderly people.

There is no way this shakes out that is not a big deal. Anyone who says it’s not a big deal is in denial.


I don’t understand the 40 to 80% statistic considering that everyone I know is social distancing. Are you saying most of those people are already infected? And not showing symptoms? Can you cite that statistic please?


NP. I think the PP was posting her response to the prior posters downplaying of 0.2%.
Anonymous
Post 03/21/2020 16:18     Subject: Anyone who still thinks this is no big deal...
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Stuff of nightmares.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/amp/2020/03/the-story-of-a-coronavirus-infection.html


Scary but not at all unrealistic. Stay at home people.



It's scary because it's poorly written panic porn.


Sure gets those clicks, though.

“According to the paper, among people aged 49 or younger, only about 0.2% of those who contracted the disease died.”

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/20/health/covid-19-recovery-rates-intl/index.html


Ok, let’s say this is true. Experts think 40 to 80% of the population will get this because no one has immunity. There are about 200 million people in the US under age 50. If you take the lowest end of that — 40% — and take 0.2% of it, it’s still 160,000 deaths of young people in the US. Seasonal flu usually kills about 8,000 non-elderly people.

There is no way this shakes out that is not a big deal. Anyone who says it’s not a big deal is in denial.


I don’t understand the 40 to 80% statistic considering that everyone I know is social distancing. Are you saying most of those people are already infected? And not showing symptoms? Can you cite that statistic please?