Anonymous
06/20/2011 12:48
Subject: DC Chosen Best Place to Raise a Family
Suburban growth is a Ponzi scheme: http://www.strongtowns.org/journal/2011/6/13/the-growth-ponzi-scheme-part-1.html
After the initial development it tends to decay over time, which means the younger residents move into newer developments. Leading to a greater decay in old growth suburbs. Each band of development moves further out. Until it's too far out to be a reasonable choice. At which point young families with a choice move into the urban core and gentrifying inner-ring suburbs. Which is where we are now.
After the initial development it tends to decay over time, which means the younger residents move into newer developments. Leading to a greater decay in old growth suburbs. Each band of development moves further out. Until it's too far out to be a reasonable choice. At which point young families with a choice move into the urban core and gentrifying inner-ring suburbs. Which is where we are now.
Anonymous
06/20/2011 12:45
Subject: DC Chosen Best Place to Raise a Family
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:I live in a walkable exurb (walkscore of 77).
Without having to cross a four-lane road, I can:
1. go to three grocery stores (Safeway, Giant, and Latino)
2. reach at least a dozen non-chain restaurants, and another dozen or so chain places (this includes two coffee shops)
3. see first-run movies
4. go to two parks and the library
Seeing as both my wife and I work west of Route 28, why should we be swinging places in DC and Arlington, thereby lengthening our commutes?
This is like asking someone why someone who works and lives in Arkansas should live in DC. No one is saying you should. You are irrelevant to conversations about DC.
I become relevant when folks start assuming all folks who live outside the Beltway have 2 hour commutes to their jobs in DC.
Nobody is assuming that. I think that the commutes in Arkansas are much better than those here. But, it isn't relevant to the conversation.
So why is one PP assuming Loudoun/PWC will fall, fall, fall in value compared to the glorious DC/Alexandria/Arlington/inner MoCo area?
Supply and demand. There's an oversupply of housing in the suburbs. There's an undersupply of housing inside the Beltway. It's great you've found a job in the exurbs near where you live. You're an outlier. Most folks commute--either into the city, or from suburb to suburb. It's their decisions that will impact the value of houses in your neighborhood.
Anonymous
06/20/2011 12:42
Subject: Re:DC Chosen Best Place to Raise a Family
Anonymous wrote:Not until DC stops electing idiot mayors.
You're confusing cause with effect. Population growth, and the effects of sprawl are going to drive middle-class folks into the city--and poor folks out. DC's political representation is a function of its citizenry.
Anonymous
06/20/2011 12:12
Subject: DC Chosen Best Place to Raise a Family
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:I live in a walkable exurb (walkscore of 77).
Without having to cross a four-lane road, I can:
1. go to three grocery stores (Safeway, Giant, and Latino)
2. reach at least a dozen non-chain restaurants, and another dozen or so chain places (this includes two coffee shops)
3. see first-run movies
4. go to two parks and the library
Seeing as both my wife and I work west of Route 28, why should we be swinging places in DC and Arlington, thereby lengthening our commutes?
This is like asking someone why someone who works and lives in Arkansas should live in DC. No one is saying you should. You are irrelevant to conversations about DC.
I become relevant when folks start assuming all folks who live outside the Beltway have 2 hour commutes to their jobs in DC.
Nobody is assuming that. I think that the commutes in Arkansas are much better than those here. But, it isn't relevant to the conversation.
So why is one PP assuming Loudoun/PWC will fall, fall, fall in value compared to the glorious DC/Alexandria/Arlington/inner MoCo area?
Anonymous
06/20/2011 11:04
Subject: DC Chosen Best Place to Raise a Family
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:I live in a walkable exurb (walkscore of 77).
Without having to cross a four-lane road, I can:
1. go to three grocery stores (Safeway, Giant, and Latino)
2. reach at least a dozen non-chain restaurants, and another dozen or so chain places (this includes two coffee shops)
3. see first-run movies
4. go to two parks and the library
Seeing as both my wife and I work west of Route 28, why should we be swinging places in DC and Arlington, thereby lengthening our commutes?
This is like asking someone why someone who works and lives in Arkansas should live in DC. No one is saying you should. You are irrelevant to conversations about DC.
I become relevant when folks start assuming all folks who live outside the Beltway have 2 hour commutes to their jobs in DC.
Nobody is assuming that. I think that the commutes in Arkansas are much better than those here. But, it isn't relevant to the conversation.
Anonymous
06/20/2011 11:01
Subject: DC Chosen Best Place to Raise a Family
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:I live in a walkable exurb (walkscore of 77).
Without having to cross a four-lane road, I can:
1. go to three grocery stores (Safeway, Giant, and Latino)
2. reach at least a dozen non-chain restaurants, and another dozen or so chain places (this includes two coffee shops)
3. see first-run movies
4. go to two parks and the library
Seeing as both my wife and I work west of Route 28, why should we be swinging places in DC and Arlington, thereby lengthening our commutes?
This is like asking someone why someone who works and lives in Arkansas should live in DC. No one is saying you should. You are irrelevant to conversations about DC.
I become relevant when folks start assuming all folks who live outside the Beltway have 2 hour commutes to their jobs in DC.
Anonymous
06/20/2011 10:56
Subject: DC Chosen Best Place to Raise a Family
Anonymous wrote:I live in a walkable exurb (walkscore of 77).
Without having to cross a four-lane road, I can:
1. go to three grocery stores (Safeway, Giant, and Latino)
2. reach at least a dozen non-chain restaurants, and another dozen or so chain places (this includes two coffee shops)
3. see first-run movies
4. go to two parks and the library
Seeing as both my wife and I work west of Route 28, why should we be swinging places in DC and Arlington, thereby lengthening our commutes?
This is like asking someone why someone who works and lives in Arkansas should live in DC. No one is saying you should. You are irrelevant to conversations about DC.
Anonymous
06/20/2011 10:51
Subject: DC Chosen Best Place to Raise a Family
I live in a walkable exurb (walkscore of 77).
Without having to cross a four-lane road, I can:
1. go to three grocery stores (Safeway, Giant, and Latino)
2. reach at least a dozen non-chain restaurants, and another dozen or so chain places (this includes two coffee shops)
3. see first-run movies
4. go to two parks and the library
Seeing as both my wife and I work west of Route 28, why should we be swinging places in DC and Arlington, thereby lengthening our commutes?
Without having to cross a four-lane road, I can:
1. go to three grocery stores (Safeway, Giant, and Latino)
2. reach at least a dozen non-chain restaurants, and another dozen or so chain places (this includes two coffee shops)
3. see first-run movies
4. go to two parks and the library
Seeing as both my wife and I work west of Route 28, why should we be swinging places in DC and Arlington, thereby lengthening our commutes?
Anonymous
06/20/2011 10:45
Subject: Re:DC Chosen Best Place to Raise a Family
Not until DC stops electing idiot mayors.
Anonymous
06/20/2011 10:37
Subject: DC Chosen Best Place to Raise a Family
Anonymous wrote:How the fark do you 'invest in shorting the suburbs?' Is there some investment pool that's shorting houses in Ashburn?
You buy the most expensive house in DC or the walkable inner-burbs that you can swing. Conversely, you sell any real estate you've got in the exurbs. We're on the cusp of a once-a-century realignment. Buying DC property today is like buying Manhattan property in the 70s.
Anonymous
06/20/2011 01:17
Subject: DC Chosen Best Place to Raise a Family
How the fark do you 'invest in shorting the suburbs?' Is there some investment pool that's shorting houses in Ashburn?
Anonymous
06/17/2011 23:16
Subject: DC Chosen Best Place to Raise a Family
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:
What makes you think I have a solution? My goal is to identify emerging trends and use them to my family's advantage. I do think the area is going to have to get a heck of a lot more dense, because population growth in the DC area is slated to be among the nation's highest over the next few decades. I think that in a decade or so DC is going to be almost uniformly upper middle-class, and that the suburbs will become more and more starkly demarcated into neighborhoods of haves and have-nots.
On the one hand, I wish folks in the suburbs good luck with the corner they've painted themselves into over the last fifty years--and I think that if they elect smart folks, and hold to a strategy of smart-growth and targeted density, they can probably pull off a successful transformation. On the other hand, I own a house in the city, so it's in my personal financial best interest that they not do so.
The other poster asked you for constructive ideas, and your response is that you want to do your best to get yours. Nice.
Sorry, but US suburban culture has spent the last seventy years painting themselves into a corner, and the vast majority of folks still can't even imagine living any other way. So, no, I'm not going to spend an inordinate amount of time obsessing over how they might unshit the bed they're lying in. There's a Hell of a lot of research that's out there, and that smart suburban planners are attempting to implement--but they're inevitably undercut by well-meaning folks who can't help but do the wrong thing.
As I said, I'm investing in shorting the suburbs. My guess is that it will pay off big over the coming decade or so.
Anonymous
06/17/2011 20:51
Subject: DC Chosen Best Place to Raise a Family
Anonymous wrote:
What makes you think I have a solution? My goal is to identify emerging trends and use them to my family's advantage. I do think the area is going to have to get a heck of a lot more dense, because population growth in the DC area is slated to be among the nation's highest over the next few decades. I think that in a decade or so DC is going to be almost uniformly upper middle-class, and that the suburbs will become more and more starkly demarcated into neighborhoods of haves and have-nots.
On the one hand, I wish folks in the suburbs good luck with the corner they've painted themselves into over the last fifty years--and I think that if they elect smart folks, and hold to a strategy of smart-growth and targeted density, they can probably pull off a successful transformation. On the other hand, I own a house in the city, so it's in my personal financial best interest that they not do so.
The other poster asked you for constructive ideas, and your response is that you want to do your best to get yours. Nice.
Anonymous
06/17/2011 15:40
Subject: DC Chosen Best Place to Raise a Family
In ten years, 14:51 is going to look around and wonder what the Hell happened. Some folks are always the last to know.
Anonymous
06/17/2011 14:51
Subject: Re:DC Chosen Best Place to Raise a Family
They must be on crack.