Okay - Lottery Nerd here. I think I'm all caught up. If I missed any, please bump them.

And while I don't want to give away too many personal details, I will share that I live in DC, EOTP, WOTR, and my kids go to a DCPS elementary school.

Anonymous wrote:Would love your prediction:

Chisholm for pk3, #5, no preferences. I know it's normally a long shot, but wondering if you think the swing space changes it up at all!

LN here.

I'm assuming English Dominant?

Ordinarily, I wouldn't say a long shot, closer to a coin flip. You would have gotten in 2 out of the past 5 years.

But yes, with a swing space, your chances go up. I think a bit less in PK3 than in other grades, as they've still only offering X seats, and presumably people knew about the swing space when they applied. The upper grades tend to let more in kids off the waitlists because they lose more current students than usual to attrition. So, for example, Brent saw lots of kids coming off the waitlist in upper grades last year, but their PK3 waitlist still didn't move.

So yeah, I'd call it a coin flip. Maybe a little less.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Hi! Thanks for your predictions! Our waitlist numbers are as followed for fourth grade (no sibling nor in boundary preferences):

Garrison WL# 11
JO Wilson WL# 12
Payne WL# 23
Ross WL# 27
Brent WL# 31

LN here:

Garrison WL# 11 - no offer
JO Wilson WL# 12 - no offer
Payne WL# 23 - no offer
Ross WL# 27 - no offer
Brent WL# 31 - they let this many people in last year, but that was in the swing space. Now they're in a brand new building. So sorry, no offer.

Plan on something else (staying where you are or your IB).

Brent is in its swing space for one more year.

LN here. Ah, sorry, I thought they were done, lost track. In that case - yes, you've got a shot at Brent, but it'll be close. They let in 33 last year. I'd give it a coin flip.

I'll also note, while I appreciate the person who noted the drawbacks to Brent for 4th (particularly in this situation), as it's helpful for people to have access to more information, I can still see a lot of situations where someone might find this appealing, particularly given that the swing space is metro-accessible from the green line. If you're in an EOTR elementary school, for example, this might be your path to a safety middle school. While Jefferson may not be a hotly desired middle school, it's a big step up from Kramer, Johnson, Hart, or even Sousa.

Anonymous wrote:We are crossing fingers for pk3 at Ludlow Taylor. #8 waitlist and with sibling preference. Seems there might be a shot by October??

LN here.

You should get a seat. They let in more kids than that every year. You've got probably a 50/50 chance of getting offer by August, but it could be later.

Keep in mind the August data comes out well before school starts, so for example, looking at last year, even though all 11 offers were issued by October and none were issued by August, that doesn't mean all 11 came after school starts. It's very possible (likely, even?) that some of those offers came in the week or two before school started.

Anonymous wrote:Latin 2nd - 131
Latin Cooper - 109

Everyone else we know who applied got in.

Assuming a hard no there. We'll stick with our 5th grade school and then opt for John Francis.

LN here. Sorry, you're not getting in. Good luck at John Francis!

Anonymous wrote:MV Calle Ocho - 55. Any shot at PK3? Last year probably yes, but last year seemed like an anomaly.

LN here. Yes, you would have gotten in last year, but agree that's an anomaly. Based on another poster, it sounds like Calle Ocho was in a swing space? Was that just for one year?

If last year was a single year at a swing space, I'd say you have basically no shot this year, especially because swing spaces tend to mean improvements which means the year after there's often an increase in demand, particularly for PK3.

Would love your prediction:

Chisholm for pk3, #5, no preferences. I know it's normally a long shot, but wondering if you think the swing space changes it up at all!

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Lottery Nerd here! Sorry, was on vacation. Will try to knock out some predictions right now, and finish the rest up later.

Aha! LN lives in the suburbs.

Or private school? Explain yourself LN!

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Hi! Thanks for your predictions! Our waitlist numbers are as followed for fourth grade (no sibling nor in boundary preferences):

Garrison WL# 11
JO Wilson WL# 12
Payne WL# 23
Ross WL# 27
Brent WL# 31

LN here:

Garrison WL# 11 - no offer
JO Wilson WL# 12 - no offer
Payne WL# 23 - no offer
Ross WL# 27 - no offer
Brent WL# 31 - they let this many people in last year, but that was in the swing space. Now they're in a brand new building. So sorry, no offer.

Plan on something else (staying where you are or your IB).

Brent is in its swing space for one more year.

And adding to that, it would be insane to take Brent for 4th this year unless you’re in dire need or closer to the swing space and plan to try for other schools for 5th. You do one year in the swing space and then 5th back at the new building, but in the weird upper school model where they just sprinkle a few 5th graders into each 4th grade classroom. Then you feed to Jefferson for middle. That’s why they went so deep last year and will probably again this year.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Hi! Thanks for your predictions! Our waitlist numbers are as followed for fourth grade (no sibling nor in boundary preferences):

Garrison WL# 11
JO Wilson WL# 12
Payne WL# 23
Ross WL# 27
Brent WL# 31

LN here:

Garrison WL# 11 - no offer
JO Wilson WL# 12 - no offer
Payne WL# 23 - no offer
Ross WL# 27 - no offer
Brent WL# 31 - they let this many people in last year, but that was in the swing space. Now they're in a brand new building. So sorry, no offer.

Plan on something else (staying where you are or your IB).

Brent is in its swing space for one more year.

Some DC charters had spring break the last few weeks.

Anonymous wrote:Lottery Nerd here! Sorry, was on vacation. Will try to knock out some predictions right now, and finish the rest up later.

Aha! LN lives in the suburbs.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Latin 2nd - 131
Latin Cooper - 109

Everyone else we know who applied got in.

Assuming a hard no there. We'll stick with our 5th grade school and then opt for John Francis.

I find this hard to believe. Most people we know didn’t get a spot since only 10% get a spot.

Not OP but no shot. Both under 20 waitlist offers last year.

Wow if bold is true then the 5th grade class at that school will be decimated. But are you happy with John Francis? We heard mixed reviews.

We have heard only negative reviews.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Latin 2nd - 131
Latin Cooper - 109

Everyone else we know who applied got in.

Assuming a hard no there. We'll stick with our 5th grade school and then opt for John Francis.

I find this hard to believe. Most people we know didn’t get a spot since only 10% get a spot.

Not OP but no shot. Both under 20 waitlist offers last year.

Wow if bold is true then the 5th grade class at that school will be decimated. But are you happy with John Francis? We heard mixed reviews.

Anonymous wrote:Fourth grade: Nothing, right? Also I would not take Key, I didn't look closely enough at the location.

1 Oyster-Adams Bilingual School (Adams) Waitlisted - #32
2 Lafayette Elementary School Waitlisted - #23
3 Eaton Elementary School Waitlisted - #10
4 Bancroft Elementary School Waitlisted - #8
5 Key Elementary School Waitlisted - #7

LN here.

Eaton, you would have gotten in five years ago, but never since. So, it's a long shot. Less than 20% chance. Bancroft let in 15 kids last year for 4th, so you've got a shot there. However, previous years it's been 0. So I'd say maybe a 20% shot?

The other three, no offer.