The electoral college needs to end.

Iowa is also in play

Northwestern's Thomas Miller is predicting that Harris's electoral map may resemble the 1964 map in which Lyndon B. Johnson defeated Barry Goldwater with a whopping 486 electoral votes, or Bill Clinton's 1996 victory over Bob Dole, in which he secured 379 electoral votes, "It’s gone from a drastic landslide in Trump’s direction to a drastic landslide for Harris," Miller said of his forecasting model...Data scientist Thomas Miller of Northwestern University correctly predicted the 2020 Electoral College map, except Georgia. He also accurately forecast that Georgia's two Democratic Senators, Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock, would defeat then-incumbents Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue, Now, he's anticipating that Kamala Harris will not only defeat Donald Trump in November, but will do so by a significant margin

https://fortune.com/2024/09/18/trump-vs-harris-election-odds-who-will-win/

https://www.alternet.org/alternet-exclusives/landslide-harris-win/

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Anonymous wrote:I think AZ, NV, GA will go red, and leaning PA going red, too. I just don't think Harris has the numbers in those states.

You think Arizona will go red, considering there is an abortion referendum on the ballot, and Kari Lake is running for senate?

Yes, a lot of folks in AZ care about the border and illegal immigration. It's more important than abortion for them. They are surrounded by blue states that allow abortion. If they need it, they'll go to those blue states.

I'll say it again.. Biden really F*up the border issue from day 1. If he had addressed it earlier on, there would be no question as to who wins 2024.

- signed a Trump hater.

So what do you say to the GOP who voted down the border policy?

Well, clearly the GOP politicians are kowtowing to Trump, but the voters in AZ care about the border, and they know that Trump is a lot more aggressive with border control than Harris will be.

But, I hope Harris and the rest of the D leadership take note: the border issue is a top 5 issue. Pay attention to it sooner rather than later.

And yet, many Arizona Republicans are rejecting Trump. Including the Republican mayors of border towns in Arizona. Many Arizonians do not like what Trump has done to their state, including rejecting the recent recent border bill.

So, despite what you say about the border issue, there are many Arizona Republicans who are denouncing Trump and siding with Harris.

There are *many*, but probably not enough.

And don't forget, that Rs are playing dirty to block votes. They will do whatever they can, including not certifying the votes to make sure Trump wins.

https://www.azfamily.com/2024/08/20/republicans-ask-supreme-court-block-40k-arizona-voters-presidential-election/

In a state that is likely going to be decided by a 1% margin, "many" is probably going to be enough.

That is why we need to mobilize and win by an indisputable margin. Key takeaway of the convention: go do something! Register voters, write postcards, knock on doors!

With all due respect, do you really think that knocking on doors is going to help? Yeah, sure, maybe in a low-profile race in which candidates are not well-known. But everyone knows about the presidential race, everyone has an opinion that is set in stone, and everyone knows how they’re going to vote. I honestly think all any of us can do is just vote and that’s it. Trying to convince someone else is more likely to backfire.

You are on DCUM political threads so you are far form he typical voter. Some people are too overwhelmed to even be fully unaware of the proper date for election day. Voters can also be unaware of the options for early voting or absentee and mail in ballots.

+1 and if volunteers do things like drive people to the polls, that can help with the youth vote, people who might not have regular trsnsportation etc

I have an extremely ignorant question, but please bear with me because my only experience is here in Maryland. Our polling places in Montgomery County are elementary schools, which are always walkable (for most) or close to peoples homes. Do other states have polling locations that are miles and miles from where people live?

In 2020, Texas had one dropbox for absentee ballots per county. Harris County (includes Houston) is over 1700 square miles.

Yes, my family lives in Houston. This is true. But that's only for absentee or mail-in ballots.

Polling places are all very close by. My family tends to go and vote in person and it's nearby and fairly easy to vote at their polling places. The drop box issue was designed to discourage people from voting by mail or absentee.

Anonymous wrote:Maine has promised that if Nebraska does this, they will too.

Really? https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/maine-nebraska-change-electoral-college-laws-trump-rcna171915

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Anonymous wrote:Maine has promised that if Nebraska does this, they will too.

Is it even legal to change something like this right before the election? It’s unlikely to mage a difference who wins , but I’m curious about the legality of the situation.

Doesn’t matter if it’s legal the point is to get it tied up in the courts and throw this election to trump’s corrupt Scotus

Anonymous wrote:Maine has promised that if Nebraska does this, they will too.

Is it even legal to change something like this right before the election? It’s unlikely to mage a difference who wins , but I’m curious about the legality of the situation.

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Anonymous wrote:I think AZ, NV, GA will go red, and leaning PA going red, too. I just don't think Harris has the numbers in those states.

You think Arizona will go red, considering there is an abortion referendum on the ballot, and Kari Lake is running for senate?

Yes, a lot of folks in AZ care about the border and illegal immigration. It's more important than abortion for them. They are surrounded by blue states that allow abortion. If they need it, they'll go to those blue states.

I'll say it again.. Biden really F*up the border issue from day 1. If he had addressed it earlier on, there would be no question as to who wins 2024.

- signed a Trump hater.

So what do you say to the GOP who voted down the border policy?

Well, clearly the GOP politicians are kowtowing to Trump, but the voters in AZ care about the border, and they know that Trump is a lot more aggressive with border control than Harris will be.

But, I hope Harris and the rest of the D leadership take note: the border issue is a top 5 issue. Pay attention to it sooner rather than later.

And yet, many Arizona Republicans are rejecting Trump. Including the Republican mayors of border towns in Arizona. Many Arizonians do not like what Trump has done to their state, including rejecting the recent recent border bill.

So, despite what you say about the border issue, there are many Arizona Republicans who are denouncing Trump and siding with Harris.

There are *many*, but probably not enough.

And don't forget, that Rs are playing dirty to block votes. They will do whatever they can, including not certifying the votes to make sure Trump wins.

https://www.azfamily.com/2024/08/20/republicans-ask-supreme-court-block-40k-arizona-voters-presidential-election/

In a state that is likely going to be decided by a 1% margin, "many" is probably going to be enough.

That is why we need to mobilize and win by an indisputable margin. Key takeaway of the convention: go do something! Register voters, write postcards, knock on doors!

With all due respect, do you really think that knocking on doors is going to help? Yeah, sure, maybe in a low-profile race in which candidates are not well-known. But everyone knows about the presidential race, everyone has an opinion that is set in stone, and everyone knows how they’re going to vote. I honestly think all any of us can do is just vote and that’s it. Trying to convince someone else is more likely to backfire.

You are on DCUM political threads so you are far form he typical voter. Some people are too overwhelmed to even be fully unaware of the proper date for election day. Voters can also be unaware of the options for early voting or absentee and mail in ballots.

+1 and if volunteers do things like drive people to the polls, that can help with the youth vote, people who might not have regular trsnsportation etc

I have an extremely ignorant question, but please bear with me because my only experience is here in Maryland. Our polling places in Montgomery County are elementary schools, which are always walkable (for most) or close to peoples homes. Do other states have polling locations that are miles and miles from where people live?

In 2020, Texas had one dropbox for absentee ballots per county. Harris County (includes Houston) is over 1700 square miles.

Maine has promised that if Nebraska does this, they will too.

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Anonymous wrote:Good combos but forgets the Nebraska district around Omaha which is the tiebreaker. It’s wild how close these all have been, I was telling my college student daughter how Obama in 2008 was called as soon as the polls closed on the west coast and she couldn’t believe it.

But bottom line is that all Trump needs are the normally always Republican states plus Pennsylvania and Georgia. Act accordingly. I have plans to doorknock later this year for Harris in Susan Wild’s PA Congressional District.

Update: the Nebraska legislature is trying to change its apportionment to winner take all to eliminate that one vote from the Omaha congressional district.

Should go the other way. All 50 states should apportion their electoral votes. Then we’d get something closer to the popular vote.

Anonymous wrote:Good combos but forgets the Nebraska district around Omaha which is the tiebreaker. It’s wild how close these all have been, I was telling my college student daughter how Obama in 2008 was called as soon as the polls closed on the west coast and she couldn’t believe it.

But bottom line is that all Trump needs are the normally always Republican states plus Pennsylvania and Georgia. Act accordingly. I have plans to doorknock later this year for Harris in Susan Wild’s PA Congressional District.

Update: the Nebraska legislature is trying to change its apportionment to winner take all to eliminate that one vote from the Omaha congressional district.

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Anonymous wrote:I think AZ, NV, GA will go red, and leaning PA going red, too. I just don't think Harris has the numbers in those states.

You think Arizona will go red, considering there is an abortion referendum on the ballot, and Kari Lake is running for senate?

Yes, a lot of folks in AZ care about the border and illegal immigration. It's more important than abortion for them. They are surrounded by blue states that allow abortion. If they need it, they'll go to those blue states.

I'll say it again.. Biden really F*up the border issue from day 1. If he had addressed it earlier on, there would be no question as to who wins 2024.

- signed a Trump hater.

So what do you say to the GOP who voted down the border policy?

Well, clearly the GOP politicians are kowtowing to Trump, but the voters in AZ care about the border, and they know that Trump is a lot more aggressive with border control than Harris will be.

But, I hope Harris and the rest of the D leadership take note: the border issue is a top 5 issue. Pay attention to it sooner rather than later.

And yet, many Arizona Republicans are rejecting Trump. Including the Republican mayors of border towns in Arizona. Many Arizonians do not like what Trump has done to their state, including rejecting the recent recent border bill.

So, despite what you say about the border issue, there are many Arizona Republicans who are denouncing Trump and siding with Harris.

There are *many*, but probably not enough.

And don't forget, that Rs are playing dirty to block votes. They will do whatever they can, including not certifying the votes to make sure Trump wins.

https://www.azfamily.com/2024/08/20/republicans-ask-supreme-court-block-40k-arizona-voters-presidential-election/

In a state that is likely going to be decided by a 1% margin, "many" is probably going to be enough.

That is why we need to mobilize and win by an indisputable margin. Key takeaway of the convention: go do something! Register voters, write postcards, knock on doors!

With all due respect, do you really think that knocking on doors is going to help? Yeah, sure, maybe in a low-profile race in which candidates are not well-known. But everyone knows about the presidential race, everyone has an opinion that is set in stone, and everyone knows how they’re going to vote. I honestly think all any of us can do is just vote and that’s it. Trying to convince someone else is more likely to backfire.

You are on DCUM political threads so you are far form he typical voter. Some people are too overwhelmed to even be fully unaware of the proper date for election day. Voters can also be unaware of the options for early voting or absentee and mail in ballots.

+1 and if volunteers do things like drive people to the polls, that can help with the youth vote, people who might not have regular trsnsportation etc

I have an extremely ignorant question, but please bear with me because my only experience is here in Maryland. Our polling places in Montgomery County are elementary schools, which are always walkable (for most) or close to peoples homes. Do other states have polling locations that are miles and miles from where people live?

I forget who was being interviewed but I heard recently about a state legislator who was elected in a part of Arizona with a lot of tribal lands. She was able to obtain a ballot dropbox for that reservation; before that people there drove hours to vote.