I am an International Math Olympiad (IMO) medal winner with over a decade of teaching experience in AMC, AIME, ARML, and other contests. Most of my students qualify for AIME; however, only a fraction of them advance to USA(J)MO. Qualifying for USA(J)MO is highly challenging, and many statistics on tutoring websites appear unrealistic; if they were accurate, there would be significantly more students participating in USA(J)MO than the official numbers of participants that we can see each year. Please contact me at tutormathcontests@gmail.com if you are interested in any lessons.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Well over 1000 middle schoolers score 90+ on AMC 10s. MAA no longer releases the stats, but in previous years, the number has been as high as 1500.

The last year maa did report the stats, 2021, 207 US 7th graders scored 90+ on 10a, 169 US 7thgr scored 90+ on 10b. And, there is heavy overlap between the two. So, likely ~250 total

Middle school is not the same as 7th grade.

Saying that anyone is "on the bubble" or "50-50" for USAMO based on a 7th grade score is absurd unless the kid is already at JMO or close to it. There's a huge gap in where the kid is vs. where he needs to be mathwise. There's also 4-5 years. Anything can happen in that time. There are a lot of very talented kids vying for a very limited number of USAMO spots. It's a reach for everyone, except the kids who are already close to that level.

Stop trying to make things weird for the PP with the kid who scored the 90. It's a good score, but there's no reason to place weird stress on where he ends up 4 - 5 years from now. Let the kid try to qualify for AIME and Mathcounts state first, before deciding that he has a great shot at USAMO.

[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]
90 on AMC 10 in grade 7 is definitely on track for USAMO contention.
[/quote]
Not even remotely true, unless the kid makes some amazing leaps in the next few years. Kids who are on track for USAMO are getting DHR or close to it on AMC 10 in 7th grade. All of the kids I know who've made USA(J)MO were qualifying for AIME by 5th or 6th grade. While a 90 in 7th grade is a strong score, the kids who will be in contention for USA(J)MO are on a completely different level.

PP's kid will be on track to qualify for AIME by 8th or 9th grade, though, which is great! [/quote]

Borderline for USA(J)MO.
There are ~25,000 - 30,000 that take amc12 each year and ~250-300 that make USAMO (about 1%). It is totally conceivable that a 7th grader that is in the 85th-90th percentile on a 10th and under test could be in the 99th percentile as a 12th grader on a 12th and under test (or 10th grader on 10th and under)[/quote]

This is ridiculous. I know someone who was not at that level in 7th grade, didn't qualify for AIME in 8th grade, and now in 10th grade is borderline USAJMO. Waiting for his score but thinking 220 or 230.
Sounds like decent chance for USAMO.

A free resource for competitive math training I would highly recommend is MathDash. Created by former TJ graduates.
MathDash uses a rating system sort of like in chess. Kids find it a friendly community to improve math skills with peers.

Anonymous wrote:We are thrilled that DS is this interested in math and wants to challenge himself with something like the AMC 10. Maybe he takes the USAMO, maybe he doesn’t, we are not worried.

We will support his interest and enjoyment in math and hope he doesn’t burn out. Maybe he takes the USAMO, maybe he doesn’t. Either way, he is building great skills and work ethic, which we love.

Well said!!

Anonymous wrote:We are thrilled that DS is this interested in math and wants to challenge himself with something like the AMC 10. Maybe he takes the USAMO, maybe he doesn’t, we are not worried.

We will support his interest and enjoyment in math and hope he doesn’t burn out. Maybe he takes the USAMO, maybe he doesn’t. Either way, he is building great skills and work ethic, which we love.

That's awesome! He has a good shot at qualifying for AIME next year in 8th!

We are thrilled that DS is this interested in math and wants to challenge himself with something like the AMC 10. Maybe he takes the USAMO, maybe he doesn’t, we are not worried.

We will support his interest and enjoyment in math and hope he doesn’t burn out. Maybe he takes the USAMO, maybe he doesn’t. Either way, he is building great skills and work ethic, which we love.

There were 121 AIME quals in 2021 Fall 10A for 7th grade (96 AIME floor), and another 97 kids between (90 and 94.5) on the achievement roll. For the 10B, there were 98 AIME quals, and another 61 on the achievement roll. It would have been much harder to earn achievement roll that year, since the cutoff was 1 question less than AIME qualification. Assuming some overlap in qualifiers, there were likely 300 7th graders who were at or above the AIME threshold minus one question.

If you look at 6th graders, 61 qualified on the A and 47 on the B, meaning probably 75 kids total made it assuming overlaps. If you add in achievement roll kids, you have 109 on the A and 82 on the B, there were likely around 125 6th graders at AIME - 1 question and higher.

For DHR, there were 76 middle schoolers on the A and 40 for the B. After accounting for overlap, there are 90-100 DHR middle schoolers.

Again, it's very difficult to be one of the top 100 kids at your grade level in the entire country.

Not all 90s are equal. Some years, AIME cutoff is low and a 90 is pretty close. Others, it isn’t. There’s also a huge gap between the 100th best kid and #300+, kind of like how there’s a huge gap between a 99.9th percentile kid and a 99.99th one. Generally, borderline for USA(J)MO is around the DHR cutoff. This year, the 10B had a relatively high AIME cutoff (105), and an incredibly high DHR cutoff (138). While most kids improve year to year, they don’t improve by that much.

It’s very, very hard to be in the top 100 kids in the entire country in your grade level.

[quote=Anonymous]
Just no. You’re massively talking out your ass and know nothing about USAMO. I know a decent number of mathematically elite kids. They were DHR or even JMO by 7th. They weren’t 15 points under the AIME cutoff in 7th. To make AMO or JMO, a kid needs to be in the top ~100 mathematicians in their grade level in the entire country. There are usually around 50 middle schoolers qualifying for JMO each year. 15 points under the AIME bar isn’t in the same ballpark. [/quote]

2021, there were only 16 7th graders that were DHR on 10a and only 4 DHR on 10b, in the entire country. Must all live in your neighborhood

Anonymous wrote:Well over 1000 middle schoolers score 90+ on AMC 10s. MAA no longer releases the stats, but in previous years, the number has been as high as 1500.

The last year maa did report the stats, 2021, 207 US 7th graders scored 90+ on 10a, 169 US 7thgr scored 90+ on 10b. And, there is heavy overlap between the two. So, likely ~250 total

Well over 1000 middle schoolers score 90+ on AMC 10s. MAA no longer releases the stats, but in previous years, the number has been as high as 1500.

[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]
90 on AMC 10 in grade 7 is definitely on track for USAMO contention.
[/quote]
Not even remotely true, unless the kid makes some amazing leaps in the next few years. Kids who are on track for USAMO are getting DHR or close to it on AMC 10 in 7th grade. All of the kids I know who've made USA(J)MO were qualifying for AIME by 5th or 6th grade. While a 90 in 7th grade is a strong score, the kids who will be in contention for USA(J)MO are on a completely different level.

PP's kid will be on track to qualify for AIME by 8th or 9th grade, though, which is great! [/quote]

Borderline for USA(J)MO.
There are ~25,000 - 30,000 that take amc12 each year and ~250-300 that make USAMO (about 1%). It is totally conceivable that a 7th grader that is in the 85th-90th percentile on a 10th and under test could be in the 99th percentile as a 12th grader on a 12th and under test (or 10th grader on 10th and under)[/quote]
Just no. You’re massively talking out your ass and know nothing about USAMO. I know a decent number of mathematically elite kids. They were DHR or even JMO by 7th. They weren’t 15 points under the AIME cutoff in 7th. To make AMO or JMO, a kid needs to be in the top ~100 mathematicians in their grade level in the entire country. There are usually around 50 middle schoolers qualifying for JMO each year. 15 points under the AIME bar isn’t in the same ballpark.

[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]
90 on AMC 10 in grade 7 is definitely on track for USAMO contention.
[/quote]
Not even remotely true, unless the kid makes some amazing leaps in the next few years. Kids who are on track for USAMO are getting DHR or close to it on AMC 10 in 7th grade. All of the kids I know who've made USA(J)MO were qualifying for AIME by 5th or 6th grade. While a 90 in 7th grade is a strong score, the kids who will be in contention for USA(J)MO are on a completely different level.

PP's kid will be on track to qualify for AIME by 8th or 9th grade, though, which is great! [/quote]

Borderline for USA(J)MO.
There are ~25,000 - 30,000 that take amc12 each year and ~250-300 that make USAMO (about 1%). It is totally conceivable that a 7th grader that is in the 85th-90th percentile on a 10th and under test could be in the 99th percentile as a 12th grader on a 12th and under test (or 10th grader on 10th and under)