Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You buy a home, OP, not a high school. Things can and will change.

Let's say hypothetically that you're an upper middle class family with young children. You are willing to pay to place them into to a great school district.

In your price range, you can afford a home zoned to a premier MCPS school. However, the only homes in your price range are in an area that could be rezoned - although there is no need for them to be.

Alternatively, you could buy a home slightly further out in a location where there is only one set of schools nearby - there is no risk of being redistricted out. The academics of these schools are neck and neck with the premier MCPS school. The homes are far less expensive.

Do you think it makes sense for this family to move to MoCo?

Do you think MoCo should care about attracting young, upper middle class families during a time where they are bleeding population?

With two new high schools being built, there is an actual need for multiple neighborhoods to be rezoned.

Some neighborhoods need to be rezoned, true. Others don't, and maybe they won't be. The current scope of redistricting plans is broad and vague, and this uncertainty is a considerable deterrent to choosing to raise a family in MoCo.

Exactly. I know people who are hesitating to buy houses here because of this uncertainty. They’re renting and also looking at other counties as options.

At this point, I'm not sure what alternative there is to uncertainty. It's simply too soon to know what the new boundaries will be. Once the options start being mapped out there will be less uncertainty, and then in 2026 there will be certainty.

An alternative would be a clarification of the scope of the boundary changes. A line in the sand of where you can buy a home and not worry about this. For example, "Nothing south of 28 will be touched".

That is never, ever going to happen.

I understand that. And you will continue to see the large portions of the upper middle class move out of MoCo, as much as they might want to stay, because it simply does not make sense to try to move into a good school district there at the moment.

How many people are we talking about here? And where are they moving from, and where are they moving to?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You buy a home, OP, not a high school. Things can and will change.

Let's say hypothetically that you're an upper middle class family with young children. You are willing to pay to place them into to a great school district.

In your price range, you can afford a home zoned to a premier MCPS school. However, the only homes in your price range are in an area that could be rezoned - although there is no need for them to be.

Alternatively, you could buy a home slightly further out in a location where there is only one set of schools nearby - there is no risk of being redistricted out. The academics of these schools are neck and neck with the premier MCPS school. The homes are far less expensive.

Do you think it makes sense for this family to move to MoCo?

Do you think MoCo should care about attracting young, upper middle class families during a time where they are bleeding population?

With two new high schools being built, there is an actual need for multiple neighborhoods to be rezoned.

Some neighborhoods need to be rezoned, true. Others don't, and maybe they won't be. The current scope of redistricting plans is broad and vague, and this uncertainty is a considerable deterrent to choosing to raise a family in MoCo.

Exactly. I know people who are hesitating to buy houses here because of this uncertainty. They’re renting and also looking at other counties as options.

At this point, I'm not sure what alternative there is to uncertainty. It's simply too soon to know what the new boundaries will be. Once the options start being mapped out there will be less uncertainty, and then in 2026 there will be certainty.

An alternative would be a clarification of the scope of the boundary changes. A line in the sand of where you can buy a home and not worry about this. For example, "Nothing south of 28 will be touched".

That is never, ever going to happen.

I understand that. And you will continue to see the large portions of the upper middle class move out of MoCo, as much as they might want to stay, because it simply does not make sense to try to move into a good school district there at the moment.

How many people are we talking about here? And where are they moving from, and where are they moving to?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You buy a home, OP, not a high school. Things can and will change.

Let's say hypothetically that you're an upper middle class family with young children. You are willing to pay to place them into to a great school district.

In your price range, you can afford a home zoned to a premier MCPS school. However, the only homes in your price range are in an area that could be rezoned - although there is no need for them to be.

Alternatively, you could buy a home slightly further out in a location where there is only one set of schools nearby - there is no risk of being redistricted out. The academics of these schools are neck and neck with the premier MCPS school. The homes are far less expensive.

Do you think it makes sense for this family to move to MoCo?

Do you think MoCo should care about attracting young, upper middle class families during a time where they are bleeding population?

With two new high schools being built, there is an actual need for multiple neighborhoods to be rezoned.

Some neighborhoods need to be rezoned, true. Others don't, and maybe they won't be. The current scope of redistricting plans is broad and vague, and this uncertainty is a considerable deterrent to choosing to raise a family in MoCo.

Exactly. I know people who are hesitating to buy houses here because of this uncertainty. They’re renting and also looking at other counties as options.

At this point, I'm not sure what alternative there is to uncertainty. It's simply too soon to know what the new boundaries will be. Once the options start being mapped out there will be less uncertainty, and then in 2026 there will be certainty.

An alternative would be a clarification of the scope of the boundary changes. A line in the sand of where you can buy a home and not worry about this. For example, "Nothing south of 28 will be touched".

That is never, ever going to happen.

I understand that. And you will continue to see the large portions of the upper middle class move out of MoCo, as much as they might want to stay, because it simply does not make sense to try to move into a good school district there at the moment.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You buy a home, OP, not a high school. Things can and will change.

Let's say hypothetically that you're an upper middle class family with young children. You are willing to pay to place them into to a great school district.

In your price range, you can afford a home zoned to a premier MCPS school. However, the only homes in your price range are in an area that could be rezoned - although there is no need for them to be.

Alternatively, you could buy a home slightly further out in a location where there is only one set of schools nearby - there is no risk of being redistricted out. The academics of these schools are neck and neck with the premier MCPS school. The homes are far less expensive.

Do you think it makes sense for this family to move to MoCo?

Do you think MoCo should care about attracting young, upper middle class families during a time where they are bleeding population?

With two new high schools being built, there is an actual need for multiple neighborhoods to be rezoned.

Some neighborhoods need to be rezoned, true. Others don't, and maybe they won't be. The current scope of redistricting plans is broad and vague, and this uncertainty is a considerable deterrent to choosing to raise a family in MoCo.

Exactly. I know people who are hesitating to buy houses here because of this uncertainty. They’re renting and also looking at other counties as options.

At this point, I'm not sure what alternative there is to uncertainty. It's simply too soon to know what the new boundaries will be. Once the options start being mapped out there will be less uncertainty, and then in 2026 there will be certainty.

An alternative would be a clarification of the scope of the boundary changes. A line in the sand of where you can buy a home and not worry about this. For example, "Nothing south of 28 will be touched".

That is never, ever going to happen.

I understand that. And you will continue to see the large portions of the upper middle class move out of MoCo, as much as they might want to stay, because it simply does not make sense to try to move into a good school district there at the moment.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You buy a home, OP, not a high school. Things can and will change.

Let's say hypothetically that you're an upper middle class family with young children. You are willing to pay to place them into to a great school district.

In your price range, you can afford a home zoned to a premier MCPS school. However, the only homes in your price range are in an area that could be rezoned - although there is no need for them to be.

Alternatively, you could buy a home slightly further out in a location where there is only one set of schools nearby - there is no risk of being redistricted out. The academics of these schools are neck and neck with the premier MCPS school. The homes are far less expensive.

Do you think it makes sense for this family to move to MoCo?

Do you think MoCo should care about attracting young, upper middle class families during a time where they are bleeding population?

The school district is MCPS.

Also, if you think Frederick County and Howard County are "slightly further out," that just says to me that you don't live in Montgomery County.

Also, MCPS should not set school boundaries based on what they believe "young, upper middle class families" might want.

Also, Montgomery County is not "bleeding population." How do we know this? Well, home prices, for one thing...

Other than that, though!

I do happen to live in Montgomery County at the moment.

Montgomery County is bleeding population. Look at the latest Census data for all the counties you listed.

Home prices are high because supply is very low.

As for not setting school boundaries based on what people want - I am not surprised to hear that. That is the opinion I expect MCPS to have as well.

Home prices are high because supply is low compared to demand. That's Econ 101.

How can demand be higher than supply, if Montgomery County is "bleeding population"?

The supply comes from a small number of homes on the market districted to good schools. The demand comes from:
- Investors looking to flip properties (bidding up some of the lower end houses in expensive regions)
- Wealthy older folks (my realtor tells me a number of their clients are purchasing second homes)
- Upper middle class, young families with money who are willing to pay a steep price for a good school

This is not a ton of people, but they have resources, and young people especially are stretching as hard as they can to purchase these properties.

Again, if you look at both prices and Census data you will see population drop and prices rise in the same time period.

I guess, if you live in Bethesda or Potomac, and everyone you know lives in Bethesda or Potomac, and you never go anywhere that isn't Bethesda or Potomac (except maybe occasionally North Bethesda or North Potomac), then that's what Montgomery County might look like to you.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You buy a home, OP, not a high school. Things can and will change.

Let's say hypothetically that you're an upper middle class family with young children. You are willing to pay to place them into to a great school district.

In your price range, you can afford a home zoned to a premier MCPS school. However, the only homes in your price range are in an area that could be rezoned - although there is no need for them to be.

Alternatively, you could buy a home slightly further out in a location where there is only one set of schools nearby - there is no risk of being redistricted out. The academics of these schools are neck and neck with the premier MCPS school. The homes are far less expensive.

Do you think it makes sense for this family to move to MoCo?

Do you think MoCo should care about attracting young, upper middle class families during a time where they are bleeding population?

With two new high schools being built, there is an actual need for multiple neighborhoods to be rezoned.

Some neighborhoods need to be rezoned, true. Others don't, and maybe they won't be. The current scope of redistricting plans is broad and vague, and this uncertainty is a considerable deterrent to choosing to raise a family in MoCo.

Exactly. I know people who are hesitating to buy houses here because of this uncertainty. They’re renting and also looking at other counties as options.

At this point, I'm not sure what alternative there is to uncertainty. It's simply too soon to know what the new boundaries will be. Once the options start being mapped out there will be less uncertainty, and then in 2026 there will be certainty.

An alternative would be a clarification of the scope of the boundary changes. A line in the sand of where you can buy a home and not worry about this. For example, "Nothing south of 28 will be touched".

That is never, ever going to happen.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You buy a home, OP, not a high school. Things can and will change.

Let's say hypothetically that you're an upper middle class family with young children. You are willing to pay to place them into to a great school district.

In your price range, you can afford a home zoned to a premier MCPS school. However, the only homes in your price range are in an area that could be rezoned - although there is no need for them to be.

Alternatively, you could buy a home slightly further out in a location where there is only one set of schools nearby - there is no risk of being redistricted out. The academics of these schools are neck and neck with the premier MCPS school. The homes are far less expensive.

Do you think it makes sense for this family to move to MoCo?

Do you think MoCo should care about attracting young, upper middle class families during a time where they are bleeding population?

With two new high schools being built, there is an actual need for multiple neighborhoods to be rezoned.

Some neighborhoods need to be rezoned, true. Others don't, and maybe they won't be. The current scope of redistricting plans is broad and vague, and this uncertainty is a considerable deterrent to choosing to raise a family in MoCo.

Exactly. I know people who are hesitating to buy houses here because of this uncertainty. They’re renting and also looking at other counties as options.

At this point, I'm not sure what alternative there is to uncertainty. It's simply too soon to know what the new boundaries will be. Once the options start being mapped out there will be less uncertainty, and then in 2026 there will be certainty.

An alternative would be a clarification of the scope of the boundary changes. A line in the sand of where you can buy a home and not worry about this. For example, "Nothing south of 28 will be touched".

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You buy a home, OP, not a high school. Things can and will change.

Let's say hypothetically that you're an upper middle class family with young children. You are willing to pay to place them into to a great school district.

In your price range, you can afford a home zoned to a premier MCPS school. However, the only homes in your price range are in an area that could be rezoned - although there is no need for them to be.

Alternatively, you could buy a home slightly further out in a location where there is only one set of schools nearby - there is no risk of being redistricted out. The academics of these schools are neck and neck with the premier MCPS school. The homes are far less expensive.

Do you think it makes sense for this family to move to MoCo?

Do you think MoCo should care about attracting young, upper middle class families during a time where they are bleeding population?

With two new high schools being built, there is an actual need for multiple neighborhoods to be rezoned.

Some neighborhoods need to be rezoned, true. Others don't, and maybe they won't be. The current scope of redistricting plans is broad and vague, and this uncertainty is a considerable deterrent to choosing to raise a family in MoCo.

Exactly. I know people who are hesitating to buy houses here because of this uncertainty. They’re renting and also looking at other counties as options.

At this point, I'm not sure what alternative there is to uncertainty. It's simply too soon to know what the new boundaries will be. Once the options start being mapped out there will be less uncertainty, and then in 2026 there will be certainty.

An alternative would be a clarification of the scope of the boundary changes. A line in the sand of where you can buy a home and not worry about this. For example, "Nothing south of 28 will be touched".

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You buy a home, OP, not a high school. Things can and will change.

Let's say hypothetically that you're an upper middle class family with young children. You are willing to pay to place them into to a great school district.

In your price range, you can afford a home zoned to a premier MCPS school. However, the only homes in your price range are in an area that could be rezoned - although there is no need for them to be.

Alternatively, you could buy a home slightly further out in a location where there is only one set of schools nearby - there is no risk of being redistricted out. The academics of these schools are neck and neck with the premier MCPS school. The homes are far less expensive.

Do you think it makes sense for this family to move to MoCo?

Do you think MoCo should care about attracting young, upper middle class families during a time where they are bleeding population?

With two new high schools being built, there is an actual need for multiple neighborhoods to be rezoned.

Some neighborhoods need to be rezoned, true. Others don't, and maybe they won't be. The current scope of redistricting plans is broad and vague, and this uncertainty is a considerable deterrent to choosing to raise a family in MoCo.

Exactly. I know people who are hesitating to buy houses here because of this uncertainty. They’re renting and also looking at other counties as options.

At this point, I'm not sure what alternative there is to uncertainty. It's simply too soon to know what the new boundaries will be. Once the options start being mapped out there will be less uncertainty, and then in 2026 there will be certainty.

An alternative would be a clarification of the scope of the boundary changes. A line in the sand of where you can buy a home and not worry about this. For example, "Nothing south of 28 will be touched".

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You buy a home, OP, not a high school. Things can and will change.

Let's say hypothetically that you're an upper middle class family with young children. You are willing to pay to place them into to a great school district.

In your price range, you can afford a home zoned to a premier MCPS school. However, the only homes in your price range are in an area that could be rezoned - although there is no need for them to be.

Alternatively, you could buy a home slightly further out in a location where there is only one set of schools nearby - there is no risk of being redistricted out. The academics of these schools are neck and neck with the premier MCPS school. The homes are far less expensive.

Do you think it makes sense for this family to move to MoCo?

Do you think MoCo should care about attracting young, upper middle class families during a time where they are bleeding population?

With two new high schools being built, there is an actual need for multiple neighborhoods to be rezoned.

Some neighborhoods need to be rezoned, true. Others don't, and maybe they won't be. The current scope of redistricting plans is broad and vague, and this uncertainty is a considerable deterrent to choosing to raise a family in MoCo.

Exactly. I know people who are hesitating to buy houses here because of this uncertainty. They’re renting and also looking at other counties as options.

At this point, I'm not sure what alternative there is to uncertainty. It's simply too soon to know what the new boundaries will be. Once the options start being mapped out there will be less uncertainty, and then in 2026 there will be certainty.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You buy a home, OP, not a high school. Things can and will change.

Let's say hypothetically that you're an upper middle class family with young children. You are willing to pay to place them into to a great school district.

In your price range, you can afford a home zoned to a premier MCPS school. However, the only homes in your price range are in an area that could be rezoned - although there is no need for them to be.

Alternatively, you could buy a home slightly further out in a location where there is only one set of schools nearby - there is no risk of being redistricted out. The academics of these schools are neck and neck with the premier MCPS school. The homes are far less expensive.

Do you think it makes sense for this family to move to MoCo?

Do you think MoCo should care about attracting young, upper middle class families during a time where they are bleeding population?

The school district is MCPS.

Also, if you think Frederick County and Howard County are "slightly further out," that just says to me that you don't live in Montgomery County.

Also, MCPS should not set school boundaries based on what they believe "young, upper middle class families" might want.

Also, Montgomery County is not "bleeding population." How do we know this? Well, home prices, for one thing...

Other than that, though!

I do happen to live in Montgomery County at the moment.

Montgomery County is bleeding population. Look at the latest Census data for all the counties you listed.

Home prices are high because supply is very low.

As for not setting school boundaries based on what people want - I am not surprised to hear that. That is the opinion I expect MCPS to have as well.

Home prices are high because supply is low compared to demand. That's Econ 101.

How can demand be higher than supply, if Montgomery County is "bleeding population"?

The supply comes from a small number of homes on the market districted to good schools. The demand comes from:
- Investors looking to flip properties (bidding up some of the lower end houses in expensive regions)
- Wealthy older folks (my realtor tells me a number of their clients are purchasing second homes)
- Upper middle class, young families with money who are willing to pay a steep price for a good school

This is not a ton of people, but they have resources, and young people especially are stretching as hard as they can to purchase these properties.

Again, if you look at both prices and Census data you will see population drop and prices rise in the same time period.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You buy a home, OP, not a high school. Things can and will change.

Let's say hypothetically that you're an upper middle class family with young children. You are willing to pay to place them into to a great school district.

In your price range, you can afford a home zoned to a premier MCPS school. However, the only homes in your price range are in an area that could be rezoned - although there is no need for them to be.

Alternatively, you could buy a home slightly further out in a location where there is only one set of schools nearby - there is no risk of being redistricted out. The academics of these schools are neck and neck with the premier MCPS school. The homes are far less expensive.

Do you think it makes sense for this family to move to MoCo?

Do you think MoCo should care about attracting young, upper middle class families during a time where they are bleeding population?

The school district is MCPS.

Also, if you think Frederick County and Howard County are "slightly further out," that just says to me that you don't live in Montgomery County.

Also, MCPS should not set school boundaries based on what they believe "young, upper middle class families" might want.

Also, Montgomery County is not "bleeding population." How do we know this? Well, home prices, for one thing...

Other than that, though!

I do happen to live in Montgomery County at the moment.

Montgomery County is bleeding population. Look at the latest Census data for all the counties you listed.

Home prices are high because supply is very low.

As for not setting school boundaries based on what people want - I am not surprised to hear that. That is the opinion I expect MCPS to have as well.

Home prices are high because supply is low compared to demand. That's Econ 101.

How can demand be higher than supply, if Montgomery County is "bleeding population"?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You buy a home, OP, not a high school. Things can and will change.

Let's say hypothetically that you're an upper middle class family with young children. You are willing to pay to place them into to a great school district.

In your price range, you can afford a home zoned to a premier MCPS school. However, the only homes in your price range are in an area that could be rezoned - although there is no need for them to be.

Alternatively, you could buy a home slightly further out in a location where there is only one set of schools nearby - there is no risk of being redistricted out. The academics of these schools are neck and neck with the premier MCPS school. The homes are far less expensive.

Do you think it makes sense for this family to move to MoCo?

Do you think MoCo should care about attracting young, upper middle class families during a time where they are bleeding population?

With two new high schools being built, there is an actual need for multiple neighborhoods to be rezoned.

Some neighborhoods need to be rezoned, true. Others don't, and maybe they won't be. The current scope of redistricting plans is broad and vague, and this uncertainty is a considerable deterrent to choosing to raise a family in MoCo.

Exactly. I know people who are hesitating to buy houses here because of this uncertainty. They’re renting and also looking at other counties as options.

At this point, I'm not sure what alternative there is to uncertainty. It's simply too soon to know what the new boundaries will be. Once the options start being mapped out there will be less uncertainty, and then in 2026 there will be certainty.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You buy a home, OP, not a high school. Things can and will change.

Let's say hypothetically that you're an upper middle class family with young children. You are willing to pay to place them into to a great school district.

In your price range, you can afford a home zoned to a premier MCPS school. However, the only homes in your price range are in an area that could be rezoned - although there is no need for them to be.

Alternatively, you could buy a home slightly further out in a location where there is only one set of schools nearby - there is no risk of being redistricted out. The academics of these schools are neck and neck with the premier MCPS school. The homes are far less expensive.

Do you think it makes sense for this family to move to MoCo?

Do you think MoCo should care about attracting young, upper middle class families during a time where they are bleeding population?

With two new high schools being built, there is an actual need for multiple neighborhoods to be rezoned.

Some neighborhoods need to be rezoned, true. Others don't, and maybe they won't be. The current scope of redistricting plans is broad and vague, and this uncertainty is a considerable deterrent to choosing to raise a family in MoCo.

Exactly. I know people who are hesitating to buy houses here because of this uncertainty. They’re renting and also looking at other counties as options.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You buy a home, OP, not a high school. Things can and will change.

Let's say hypothetically that you're an upper middle class family with young children. You are willing to pay to place them into to a great school district.

In your price range, you can afford a home zoned to a premier MCPS school. However, the only homes in your price range are in an area that could be rezoned - although there is no need for them to be.

Alternatively, you could buy a home slightly further out in a location where there is only one set of schools nearby - there is no risk of being redistricted out. The academics of these schools are neck and neck with the premier MCPS school. The homes are far less expensive.

Do you think it makes sense for this family to move to MoCo?

Do you think MoCo should care about attracting young, upper middle class families during a time where they are bleeding population?

With two new high schools being built, there is an actual need for multiple neighborhoods to be rezoned.

Some neighborhoods need to be rezoned, true. Others don't, and maybe they won't be. The current scope of redistricting plans is broad and vague, and this uncertainty is a considerable deterrent to choosing to raise a family in MoCo.

Exactly. I know people who are hesitating to buy houses here because of this uncertainty. They’re renting and also looking at other counties as options.