Looks like fun times ahead:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/mcconnell-speaker-johnson-headed-shutdown-100000224.html

Anonymous wrote:So does the new speaker mean we're more likely or less likely to have a shutdown? I know he said he's open to a CR but.... not sure I believe it.

Bumping this as I have the same question - what do our resident insiders think?

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Anonymous wrote:So does the new speaker mean we're more likely or less likely to have a shutdown? I know he said he's open to a CR but.... not sure I believe it.

I thought if there was a CR past 1/15 there was an automatic 1% cut to all agency budgets (including DOD). Presumably they could override that if they passed a full year budget though.

The CR would maintain funding through the end-date; Dems would never agree to a CR that features the automatic cut. Since the GOP still can’t agree on what they actually want, I suspect they’ll go along with another CR with no funding for Ukraine (and maybe Israel).

Oh ok, I may have incorrectly assumed the cut was required or automatic.

The debt ceiling law has an automatic cut that says if a CR by x date, then the next budget is the FY 23 budget with cuts - different levels for defense and non-defense. But I can't recall when that kicks in. I thought it was January, but then I saw an article saying April but maybe someone else can chime in.

It says they have to start sequestering 1% after January 1st and no later than April 30th so the later date is more of a real deadline.

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Anonymous wrote:So does the new speaker mean we're more likely or less likely to have a shutdown? I know he said he's open to a CR but.... not sure I believe it.

I thought if there was a CR past 1/15 there was an automatic 1% cut to all agency budgets (including DOD). Presumably they could override that if they passed a full year budget though.

The CR would maintain funding through the end-date; Dems would never agree to a CR that features the automatic cut. Since the GOP still can’t agree on what they actually want, I suspect they’ll go along with another CR with no funding for Ukraine (and maybe Israel).

Oh ok, I may have incorrectly assumed the cut was required or automatic.

The debt ceiling law has an automatic cut that says if a CR by x date, then the next budget is the FY 23 budget with cuts - different levels for defense and non-defense. But I can't recall when that kicks in. I thought it was January, but then I saw an article saying April but maybe someone else can chime in.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So does the new speaker mean we're more likely or less likely to have a shutdown? I know he said he's open to a CR but.... not sure I believe it.

I thought if there was a CR past 1/15 there was an automatic 1% cut to all agency budgets (including DOD). Presumably they could override that if they passed a full year budget though.

The CR would maintain funding through the end-date; Dems would never agree to a CR that features the automatic cut. Since the GOP still can’t agree on what they actually want, I suspect they’ll go along with another CR with no funding for Ukraine (and maybe Israel).

Oh ok, I may have incorrectly assumed the cut was required or automatic.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So does the new speaker mean we're more likely or less likely to have a shutdown? I know he said he's open to a CR but.... not sure I believe it.

I thought if there was a CR past 1/15 there was an automatic 1% cut to all agency budgets (including DOD). Presumably they could override that if they passed a full year budget though.

Current funding ends 11/15. We need another CR to get to 2024.

Right, I just meant there is a bit of a disincentive to do one that goes into the new year notwithstanding that it seems unlikely they will agree on a spending bill anytime soon.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So does the new speaker mean we're more likely or less likely to have a shutdown? I know he said he's open to a CR but.... not sure I believe it.

I thought if there was a CR past 1/15 there was an automatic 1% cut to all agency budgets (including DOD). Presumably they could override that if they passed a full year budget though.

The CR would maintain funding through the end-date; Dems would never agree to a CR that features the automatic cut. Since the GOP still can’t agree on what they actually want, I suspect they’ll go along with another CR with no funding for Ukraine (and maybe Israel).

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So does the new speaker mean we're more likely or less likely to have a shutdown? I know he said he's open to a CR but.... not sure I believe it.

I thought if there was a CR past 1/15 there was an automatic 1% cut to all agency budgets (including DOD). Presumably they could override that if they passed a full year budget though.

Current funding ends 11/15. We need another CR to get to 2024.

Anonymous wrote:So does the new speaker mean we're more likely or less likely to have a shutdown? I know he said he's open to a CR but.... not sure I believe it.

I thought if there was a CR past 1/15 there was an automatic 1% cut to all agency budgets (including DOD). Presumably they could override that if they passed a full year budget though.

So does the new speaker mean we're more likely or less likely to have a shutdown? I know he said he's open to a CR but.... not sure I believe it.

Anonymous wrote:Any thoughts on how the looking shut down may impact fed hiring? Currently interviewing for a role and I’m wondering if the agency might expedite to hire before shut down or if it will essentially just grind to a screeching halt.

my agency is now in a hiring freeze until we get a budget. So everything in flight that did not have offers out already came to a screeching halt. There are folks that already have EOD dates of 11/20, and I doubt very much that any of those could even moved up to 11/6. So I think you're out of luck on expediting.

Anonymous wrote:Any thoughts on how the looking shut down may impact fed hiring? Currently interviewing for a role and I’m wondering if the agency might expedite to hire before shut down or if it will essentially just grind to a screeching halt.

The federal government moves slowly. The hiring process will continue at the usual pace. If the government shuts down, the hiring process will stop immediately. As soon as a CR or appropriations bill covering that position is in place, the hiring process will pick up where it left off.

The one change is that sometimes the appropriations bill includes verbage to cut money from an agency. If the appropriations bill cuts funding from the project/task/organization that is hiring, they may lose the position that they were reviewing/interviewing for, in which case, even if an offer was extended, it could be rescinded. So, rushing to hire is no guarantee that the position will remain open for hiring after an appropriations bill.

Essentially you will not know unless you get an offer and after appropriations, the position is still open to be filled and you actually start. Until you start, the position can always be rescinded for political or financial reasons.

I don’t think new hires get any priority in these situations. Then again, I was hired with a short deadline to hit fiscal funding, so maybe I’m wrong.

Business as usual at my agency too. The closer to the deadline the more we try to get people through the process.

Anonymous wrote:Any thoughts on how the looking shut down may impact fed hiring? Currently interviewing for a role and I’m wondering if the agency might expedite to hire before shut down or if it will essentially just grind to a screeching halt.

My agency is hiring and it seems like business as usual. I’m not a decision-maker, but I assume the thinking is that (a) we have no idea what will happen in November, and (b) we can’t really make HR move faster no matter what we do, so might as well follow the usual plan.