The APS planning staff work with County planning staff and use the best information available to project enrollment. Read their reports, they painstakingly detail their methodology if you care. Go to school and get a planning degree and join them and do a better job!

Do they go to every home and interview the residents about their thoughts and dreams and plans for the future? No. They are PROJECTIONS.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:For the Hamm people complaining, what is your proposal to fill Williamsburg then? Who should get bused over there? Not your children. We’ve got that.

Question: why is APS so bad at calculating seats/future needs? Are less families moving to WMS/DHMS? Is this driven in part by the exodus of North Arlington families to private school? Does APS track or publish that information?

Just my observations watching this over many years.

1. Covid definitely impacted things.
2. In past boundary adjustments, the School Board responds to the people screaming in their faces right in the moment. This was the case with the boundary adjustments when Hamm was opened. Hamm never had enough kids and Swanson had too many. People screamed about not leaving Swanson. Same issue with Cardinal. The McKinley community screamed and yelled to stay together and give it a couple years that school will be overcrowded. The problem is this thread. What's going on right now. Listening to current families over what makes sense longer-term.

Right, I don’t disagree with you. But I still would be very curious about the covid impact. How big was it? Is it here to stay? What are the current numbers?

APS does not give two wits about the kids leaving for PS, I know, which is one of the reasons they are leaving. But it’s impacting neighborhoods/neighborhood schools in N Arlington communities in a way that is new and different. It would be useful to understand it. Especially when APS appears to be absolutely abysmal at forecasting seating/buildings.

You can find all the enrollment data on line and draw conclusions yourself about where these kids went. The data is all there.

Ok help me then. Can you point me to where? What percentage departed? How did that change from past years? Are they reenrolling? What is the impact on seating capacity at WMS? YHS? If it’s significant, has anyone looked at whether these kids are come back? How would that impact seating? If it becomes the norm in certain neighborhoods, do we expect it to increase? If so, does that mean even emptier N Arlington schools?

Not known. But we do know some are coming back. APS was off by 100+ in its projections for Nottingham, Discovery, Taylor, and Cardinal in the last year. That doesn’t account for any residual redshirts or people who did private kindergarten in the face of continued COVID uncertainty that are enrolling next year.

APS doesn’t want to know the answer, because they are planning to firm up the decision to shut down Nottingham by October.

Were they also off by 100 for Jamestown and Tuckahoe? I mean, if so, that is 600 kids? Seems important if only from a seats perspective.

But I agree with the PP about the exodus and huge swaths of the county opting out of APS. It becomes less acceptable and to send kids and then it snowballs. Or maybe not. Maybe it’s just a blip.

Regardless, I think it’s important if it’s affecting 600 seats.

Anonymous wrote:Build new facilities in South Arlington, where the county needs them, already!

Stop messing around with boundaries and whatnot to try to alleviate crowding in the south by moving kids north. Please.

And I live in North Arlington.

Of course you do!
And let's keep the next generation or two of south elementary students jammed into their facilities while we northerners enjoy air and space and calm until that additional school can be built in the south. Duh. It's the simple and logical solution. We'll even offer-up some of our teachers to those crowded schools with hundreds more children.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:For the Hamm people complaining, what is your proposal to fill Williamsburg then? Who should get bused over there? Not your children. We’ve got that.

Question: why is APS so bad at calculating seats/future needs? Are less families moving to WMS/DHMS? Is this driven in part by the exodus of North Arlington families to private school? Does APS track or publish that information?

Just my observations watching this over many years.

1. Covid definitely impacted things.
2. In past boundary adjustments, the School Board responds to the people screaming in their faces right in the moment. This was the case with the boundary adjustments when Hamm was opened. Hamm never had enough kids and Swanson had too many. People screamed about not leaving Swanson. Same issue with Cardinal. The McKinley community screamed and yelled to stay together and give it a couple years that school will be overcrowded. The problem is this thread. What's going on right now. Listening to current families over what makes sense longer-term.

Right, I don’t disagree with you. But I still would be very curious about the covid impact. How big was it? Is it here to stay? What are the current numbers?

APS does not give two wits about the kids leaving for PS, I know, which is one of the reasons they are leaving. But it’s impacting neighborhoods/neighborhood schools in N Arlington communities in a way that is new and different. It would be useful to understand it. Especially when APS appears to be absolutely abysmal at forecasting seating/buildings.

You can find all the enrollment data on line and draw conclusions yourself about where these kids went. The data is all there.

Ok help me then. Can you point me to where? What percentage departed? How did that change from past years? Are they reenrolling? What is the impact on seating capacity at WMS? YHS? If it’s significant, has anyone looked at whether these kids are come back? How would that impact seating? If it becomes the norm in certain neighborhoods, do we expect it to increase? If so, does that mean even emptier N Arlington schools?

Some of you are super lazy.

https://www.apsva.us/statistics/enrollment/

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:For the Hamm people complaining, what is your proposal to fill Williamsburg then? Who should get bused over there? Not your children. We’ve got that.

Question: why is APS so bad at calculating seats/future needs? Are less families moving to WMS/DHMS? Is this driven in part by the exodus of North Arlington families to private school? Does APS track or publish that information?

Just my observations watching this over many years.

1. Covid definitely impacted things.
2. In past boundary adjustments, the School Board responds to the people screaming in their faces right in the moment. This was the case with the boundary adjustments when Hamm was opened. Hamm never had enough kids and Swanson had too many. People screamed about not leaving Swanson. Same issue with Cardinal. The McKinley community screamed and yelled to stay together and give it a couple years that school will be overcrowded. The problem is this thread. What's going on right now. Listening to current families over what makes sense longer-term.

Right, I don’t disagree with you. But I still would be very curious about the covid impact. How big was it? Is it here to stay? What are the current numbers?

APS does not give two wits about the kids leaving for PS, I know, which is one of the reasons they are leaving. But it’s impacting neighborhoods/neighborhood schools in N Arlington communities in a way that is new and different. It would be useful to understand it. Especially when APS appears to be absolutely abysmal at forecasting seating/buildings.

You can find all the enrollment data on line and draw conclusions yourself about where these kids went. The data is all there.

Ok help me then. Can you point me to where? What percentage departed? How did that change from past years? Are they reenrolling? What is the impact on seating capacity at WMS? YHS? If it’s significant, has anyone looked at whether these kids are come back? How would that impact seating? If it becomes the norm in certain neighborhoods, do we expect it to increase? If so, does that mean even emptier N Arlington schools?

Not known. But we do know some are coming back. APS was off by 100+ in its projections for Nottingham, Discovery, Taylor, and Cardinal in the last year. That doesn’t account for any residual redshirts or people who did private kindergarten in the face of continued COVID uncertainty that are enrolling next year.

APS doesn’t want to know the answer, because they are planning to firm up the decision to shut down Nottingham by October.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Walkable is never going to be the primary factor APS uses in boundaries. It’s impossible to do so. Some of you won’t get to walk.

So what is APS’ hierarchy of priorities? What supersedes walkability? What comes after?

Hmmm.... maybe filling existing seats?!

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:For the Hamm people complaining, what is your proposal to fill Williamsburg then? Who should get bused over there? Not your children. We’ve got that.

Question: why is APS so bad at calculating seats/future needs? Are less families moving to WMS/DHMS? Is this driven in part by the exodus of North Arlington families to private school? Does APS track or publish that information?

Just my observations watching this over many years.

1. Covid definitely impacted things.
2. In past boundary adjustments, the School Board responds to the people screaming in their faces right in the moment. This was the case with the boundary adjustments when Hamm was opened. Hamm never had enough kids and Swanson had too many. People screamed about not leaving Swanson. Same issue with Cardinal. The McKinley community screamed and yelled to stay together and give it a couple years that school will be overcrowded. The problem is this thread. What's going on right now. Listening to current families over what makes sense longer-term.

Right, I don’t disagree with you. But I still would be very curious about the covid impact. How big was it? Is it here to stay? What are the current numbers?

APS does not give two wits about the kids leaving for PS, I know, which is one of the reasons they are leaving. But it’s impacting neighborhoods/neighborhood schools in N Arlington communities in a way that is new and different. It would be useful to understand it. Especially when APS appears to be absolutely abysmal at forecasting seating/buildings.

+1. APS seems to be awful at predicting what it is going to make sense for the long term. In the face of a global pandemic that’s completely upended what we thought we knew about school growth (which was hard learned in the face of being repeatedly wrong before), you’d think some humility would be in order.

And I disagree threads like this are the problem. We are right to question half-baked assumptions and poke holes in flawed methodologies. The fact that the school board keeps buckling in the face of opposition shows they have little faith in staff’s analysis and the assumptions don’t stand up to scrutiny.

Schools are meant to serve the educational needs of students, and APS seems to have completely lost sight of this chasing the Syphax wishlists of the day. APS may be happy to see these parents go, but we all know what happens when people with money and influence lose faith in the public school system. The whole system benefits when the entire community is engaged and invested. Take a look at ACPS for an example of what happens if when UMC and MC parents disengage.

After observing the McKinley/Key/ATS/Cardinal boundary process up close and looking at all the data from all sides in depth, I began to really question this often repeated narrative. Sorry it's inconvenient, but APS staff is capable of making good recommendations with the best information they have and often times parents really don't have the full picture. Who is more self-interested? Them or you?

I just think the narrative that APS stuff constantly sucks and is incompetent is unfair. Do they make mistakes and get things wrong at times? Yes. Are they plotting against you? Probably not. My opinion is the parent communities can just be insanely obstinate. There is no reasoning with people who want what they want and are used to getting their way.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I can’t imagine they are actually going to close Nottingham. Once the wealthy Nottingham parents start fussing about it (and they already are), the school board will back down for sure. You don’t mess with the rich, white elementary schools in Arlington, do you?

I guess you missed when they closed McKinley.

Closed McKinley?? Am I mistaken that the McKinley building is still being used as an elementary school?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:For the Hamm people complaining, what is your proposal to fill Williamsburg then? Who should get bused over there? Not your children. We’ve got that.

Restore the “Rosslyn Island.” The Rosslyn students in high density housing were zoned to Williamsburg up until 2019 or so when the boundaries last changed. No one except APS staff complained about it since it looked “weird.”

It contributed to socio-economic diversity and also helped fill the school since Williamsburg is in an area of low density single family homes.

^Rosslyn students would be bussed to any middle school. So it shouldn’t be too hard for APS staff to draw a contiguous boundary with Rosslyn to create a Williamsburg MS zone for Innovation ES. It doesn’t have to be an “island” boundary like before if APS staff finds that unacceptable. If APS gave any thought to both walkability and socio-economic diversity, such a scenario would be a no-brainer.

It's maddening that everyone has such short or distorted memory. APS staff isn't to blame for the dislike for "map islands." That was ALL because of COMMUNITY complaints. People always pick whatever bolsters their self-interests to argue for certain boundary outcomes. Then they blame APS staff for listening.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:For the Hamm people complaining, what is your proposal to fill Williamsburg then? Who should get bused over there? Not your children. We’ve got that.

Question: why is APS so bad at calculating seats/future needs? Are less families moving to WMS/DHMS? Is this driven in part by the exodus of North Arlington families to private school? Does APS track or publish that information?

Just my observations watching this over many years.

1. Covid definitely impacted things.
2. In past boundary adjustments, the School Board responds to the people screaming in their faces right in the moment. This was the case with the boundary adjustments when Hamm was opened. Hamm never had enough kids and Swanson had too many. People screamed about not leaving Swanson. Same issue with Cardinal. The McKinley community screamed and yelled to stay together and give it a couple years that school will be overcrowded. The problem is this thread. What's going on right now. Listening to current families over what makes sense longer-term.

Right, I don’t disagree with you. But I still would be very curious about the covid impact. How big was it? Is it here to stay? What are the current numbers?

APS does not give two wits about the kids leaving for PS, I know, which is one of the reasons they are leaving. But it’s impacting neighborhoods/neighborhood schools in N Arlington communities in a way that is new and different. It would be useful to understand it. Especially when APS appears to be absolutely abysmal at forecasting seating/buildings.

You can find all the enrollment data on line and draw conclusions yourself about where these kids went. The data is all there.

Ok help me then. Can you point me to where? What percentage departed? How did that change from past years? Are they reenrolling? What is the impact on seating capacity at WMS? YHS? If it’s significant, has anyone looked at whether these kids are come back? How would that impact seating? If it becomes the norm in certain neighborhoods, do we expect it to increase? If so, does that mean even emptier N Arlington schools?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Build new facilities in South Arlington, where the county needs them, already!

Stop messing around with boundaries and whatnot to try to alleviate crowding in the south by moving kids north. Please.

And I live in North Arlington.

So the County should spend tens of millions of dollars to build new elementary schools and leave some half empty. Um, no.

It’s not great, but when all the population growth is in South Arlington but the underenrolled schools are in North Arlington, the County is going to have to redistribute the kids every few years over and over to keep moving kids north if they don’t build more facilities in the south, where the kids are!

Is there even a place you could build more schools in S. Arlington?

No

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Why can't they just move Montessori middle school to Williamsburg? They're already being bused.

I kind of wonder this too. I actually think for Montessori it would (education philosophy wise) make sense make it K-8 but I don't know if that would be possible to fit in at the ACC site.

A conversation clearly by north arlington residents.
Try thinking outside of your own little neighborhood community and school and think about Montessori moving out of the old Henry building and becoming - what? - another neighborhood elementary to resolve the overcrowding in south arlington elementaries? Now, how would you be reacting if you lived in Arlington Heights or Alcova Heights or Green Valley, the neighborhood surrounding the current Montessori building and the new Fleet building just a few blocks away. Do you think that makes more sense than busing kids to fill existing under-enrolled buildings? Or do you think they should just bus the overflow kids from far south Arlington up to fill your neighborhood schools so you can still walk to it? Of course, keep in mind, you live up there precisely NOT to have your kids go to school with these south Arlington kids. I guess it's a no-win for y'all up there.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:For the Hamm people complaining, what is your proposal to fill Williamsburg then? Who should get bused over there? Not your children. We’ve got that.

Question: why is APS so bad at calculating seats/future needs? Are less families moving to WMS/DHMS? Is this driven in part by the exodus of North Arlington families to private school? Does APS track or publish that information?

Just my observations watching this over many years.

1. Covid definitely impacted things.
2. In past boundary adjustments, the School Board responds to the people screaming in their faces right in the moment. This was the case with the boundary adjustments when Hamm was opened. Hamm never had enough kids and Swanson had too many. People screamed about not leaving Swanson. Same issue with Cardinal. The McKinley community screamed and yelled to stay together and give it a couple years that school will be overcrowded. The problem is this thread. What's going on right now. Listening to current families over what makes sense longer-term.

Right, I don’t disagree with you. But I still would be very curious about the covid impact. How big was it? Is it here to stay? What are the current numbers?

APS does not give two wits about the kids leaving for PS, I know, which is one of the reasons they are leaving. But it’s impacting neighborhoods/neighborhood schools in N Arlington communities in a way that is new and different. It would be useful to understand it. Especially when APS appears to be absolutely abysmal at forecasting seating/buildings.

+1. APS seems to be awful at predicting what it is going to make sense for the long term. In the face of a global pandemic that’s completely upended what we thought we knew about school growth (which was hard learned in the face of being repeatedly wrong before), you’d think some humility would be in order.

And I disagree threads like this are the problem. We are right to question half-baked assumptions and poke holes in flawed methodologies. The fact that the school board keeps buckling in the face of opposition shows they have little faith in staff’s analysis and the assumptions don’t stand up to scrutiny.

Schools are meant to serve the educational needs of students, and APS seems to have completely lost sight of this chasing the Syphax wishlists of the day. APS may be happy to see these parents go, but we all know what happens when people with money and influence lose faith in the public school system. The whole system benefits when the entire community is engaged and invested. Take a look at ACPS for an example of what happens if when UMC and MC parents disengage.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Build new facilities in South Arlington, where the county needs them, already!

Stop messing around with boundaries and whatnot to try to alleviate crowding in the south by moving kids north. Please.

And I live in North Arlington.

So the County should spend tens of millions of dollars to build new elementary schools and leave some half empty. Um, no.

It’s not great, but when all the population growth is in South Arlington but the underenrolled schools are in North Arlington, the County is going to have to redistribute the kids every few years over and over to keep moving kids north if they don’t build more facilities in the south, where the kids are!

You're acting like children from N Arlington and S Arlington can't go to school together and it's some mountainous border. As a taxpayer it's ludicrous to leave empty capacity and build more so kids don't have to cross Rt 50. This County is physically very small. Nothing is very far.

No, I’m acting like people in South Arlington want good neighborhood, walkable schools too. Not to be bussed north, unless they have closed that as an option school.

Okay, well that's not worth the County spending 55million+ to build a new school when there are schools with a lot of capacity.

This. Also, they just have to move more kids into the buildings that have capacity, like Drew. They punted because of community uproar, but it’s irresponsible and wasteful to leave all those empty seats while also insisting a new school be built.

100% agree but the problem is no one trusts their predictions/numbers because they appear to be so bad at it. And they cherry pick. The boundary process is so terrible and causes so much wasted energy.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:For the Hamm people complaining, what is your proposal to fill Williamsburg then? Who should get bused over there? Not your children. We’ve got that.

Question: why is APS so bad at calculating seats/future needs? Are less families moving to WMS/DHMS? Is this driven in part by the exodus of North Arlington families to private school? Does APS track or publish that information?

Just my observations watching this over many years.

1. Covid definitely impacted things.
2. In past boundary adjustments, the School Board responds to the people screaming in their faces right in the moment. This was the case with the boundary adjustments when Hamm was opened. Hamm never had enough kids and Swanson had too many. People screamed about not leaving Swanson. Same issue with Cardinal. The McKinley community screamed and yelled to stay together and give it a couple years that school will be overcrowded. The problem is this thread. What's going on right now. Listening to current families over what makes sense longer-term.

Right, I don’t disagree with you. But I still would be very curious about the covid impact. How big was it? Is it here to stay? What are the current numbers?

APS does not give two wits about the kids leaving for PS, I know, which is one of the reasons they are leaving. But it’s impacting neighborhoods/neighborhood schools in N Arlington communities in a way that is new and different. It would be useful to understand it. Especially when APS appears to be absolutely abysmal at forecasting seating/buildings.

You can find all the enrollment data on line and draw conclusions yourself about where these kids went. The data is all there.