As the Ukrainians take Svatove, this should cut off the supply to the troops on either flank?

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/10/13/2128629/-Ukraine-update-Ukraine-approaches-strategic-Svatove-as-Russian-Telegram-invents-phantom-wins

The Ukranians also hit infrastructure in Belgorod, Russia in apparent retaliation for the strikes on Ukrainain cities. Belogorod is a major staging area for the new conscripts arriving.

"Train operations were suspended early on Friday near Novyi Oskol, a town in Russia's Belgorod region that borders Ukraine, after remains of a missile fell near the railway"
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/trains-suspended-parts-russias-belgorod-region-after-defences-shoot-down-missile-2022-10-14/

"“An electric substation... caught fire after a strike on Belgorod,” Gladkov said on Telegram, adding that it would take “up to four hours” to activate a backup system and restore power."
https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2022/10/14/Ukraine-strike-destroys-electrical-substation-in-Russia

"the governor of Belgorod Oblast, confirmed that an ammunition depot was blown up"
https://news.yahoo.com/disruptions-russia-explosions-belgorod-fire-170927193.html

But not all the damage was caused by Ukraine.

“Belgorod is bombing itself. And this is not a joke”
https://euroweeklynews.com/2022/10/14/misfiring-russian-air-defence-system-belgorod/

Note that the more Russian train service is disrupted, the more difficulty the Russians have resupplying and transporting troops. This act brought the war to the Russian homefront. Before, Russians felt safe that no one would attack them on their own soil. It also seems to have rattled Russian propagandists.

"I don't understand why on earth they regularly they hit Belgorod, yesterday with an American missile that was shot down. I do not understand it. Well, we have to move the border somehow, so they don't fire at Belgorod. This is a threat to our country. Move the f..cking border back 200 kilometres. If you cannot move the border - make a firestorm,"
https://charter97.org/en/news/2022/10/14/519912/

Top Russian Federation (RF) propagandist Vladimir Solovyov, appearing on state-controlled television on Thursday, Oct. 13 said: “Blast them [Ukraine and its people] with fire and death. So that there would be no possibility, by any means, for them to shoot [at Russia]. I couldn’t give a (expletive) about the fate of Ukrainian cities…why are we playing patty-cakes with them?…We haven’t even come close to using all the weapons we have at our disposal. If we have to, then we need to scorch the earth.”

Pavel Gubarev, a pro-Russia activist in occupied Donetsk Region, released a video on Wednesday, Oct. 12, warning that a people living in regions annexed by Russia, as well as territories not yet captured by Russian troops, but claimed by the Kremlin, have the choice of accepting Moscow’s authority or dying.

“We [RF forces] aren’t coming to kill you, but to convince you,” Gubarov said. “But if you don’t want to be convinced, we’ll kill you. We’ll kill as many as we have to: one million, five million, or exterminate all of you.”
https://www.kyivpost.com/russias-war/kremlin-ramps-up-armageddon-rhetoric.html

"Okay, good option... so I repeat, the eternal question, Poseidon or Sarmat?"
"Sarmat [will only be] on combat duty in December, as I understand it."
"Don't worry. It's like here, if they say in December, it means it's already on duty."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nk7i6IM963g

Sarmat "is a Russian liquid-fueled, MIRV-equipped super-heavy intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM)"
"The RS-28 Sarmat will be capable of carrying about 10 tonnes of payload,[31] for either up to 10 heavy or 15 light MIRV warheads, an unspecified number of Avangard hypersonic glide vehicles (HGVs)"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RS-28_Sarmat

As precision conventional missile stocks go down, what's left are mainly nuclear tipped weaponry.

If they hit it once they can and will hit it again.

The state of repairs will hardly be a secret. The bridge is monitored by satellite. People are even posting their own videos as they cross. And Ukraine surely has assets sho monitor rail and ferry traffic on both sides of the bridge.

Anonymous wrote:Russia says repairs were not be finished until July 2023.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/crimea-bridge-repairs-be-finished-by-july-2023-russian-government-document-2022-10-14/

But it doesn't say which repairs.

I also think it's fake information (propaganda) so the Ukrainians won't attempt to take it down before winter sets in. Do I have proof? No, but it's what I would do if I was in their shoes. It would be a way to catch Ukraine by surprise (by shipping in a few hundred of the newly troops overnight). Russia is still trying to reach their conscription quotas, no matter what is said in the news.

"In the Russian city of Ufa, a co-pilot, who was subject to conscription, was taken directly from the plane to the military enlistment office"
https://www.yahoo.com/news/pilot-gets-conscription-notice-flight-153251876.html

"At one of the hostels, all guests eligible for military conscription were rounded up and sent to an enlistment center where men with prior military experience had their passports confiscated and were ordered to report back with their belongings the next day"
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/10/13/russian-authorities-resort-to-raiding-hotels-to-catch-draft-dodgers-a79076

Does that mean those troops would be combat effective?

“We’ve spent an absurd amount of money just to feed ourselves, not to mention on ammunition.”
"The Insider reported earlier that the soldiers’ wives were forced to spend as much as $2,500 on equipping their husbands. A website set up to answer questions on mobilization states that requiring soldiers to buy their own equipment is illegal. The same website encourages soldiers to bring their own night vision goggles and drones to the battlefield."
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/10/06/mobilized-russian-soldiers-protest-over-animal-conditions-a78995

There still is ammunition coming in from the land routes for sure. The question is how fast they can replenish the stockpiles?

"Among the discovered [things], there were more than 500 artillery shells and ammunition for the Grad and Uragan multiple-launch rocket systems, as well as more than a 100 anti-tank guided missiles and anti-tank mines. The occupiers abandoned their arsenal during the retreat from the rapid counteroffensive by Ukrainian troops on the Kherson front".
https://www.yahoo.com/news/warehouse-hundreds-ammunition-rounds-found-133110718.html

Russia says repairs were not be finished until July 2023.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/crimea-bridge-repairs-be-finished-by-july-2023-russian-government-document-2022-10-14/

Anonymous wrote:And if the train is running, then Russia would be able to supply Crimea. Ukraine must take out that bridge completely if they wish to take back Crimea, imho. Failure to do so risks counteroffensive from that flank.

The train may run but it will have its load decreased - less cars and less weight in each car. This is stress the supply chain at the least. Also if this was a civilian and not a military operation the bridge would be closed till a proper assessment was made on the bridge. This would take weeks and then a repair plan would be made. So the bridge would be closed for 4-8 months.

And if the train is running, then Russia would be able to supply Crimea. Ukraine must take out that bridge completely if they wish to take back Crimea, imho. Failure to do so risks counteroffensive from that flank.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I want to hear more about "severe rationing" that's claimed here.

It appears the rationing order was rescinded due to an “error.” There is supposed to be a 49 day supply of petrol as of five days ago, as if there is somewhere to which to drive.

In other words, whoever posted that severe rationing was imposed on civilians has lied?

Take it up with media reporting pronouncements by the Russian goon squad leader. You’re welcome.

https://kyivindependent.com/uncategorized/crimean-occupation-government-introduces-rationing-cancels-it-in-an-hour

No, it's much funner taking it up with a moron mindlessly posting whatever she finds without a modicum of critical thinking to see if it's true.

Let me add to your humor then.

"Russian fuel shipments to troops fighting in Ukraine last month hit the highest level since the invasion began."
"A report from Bloomberg said Wednesday fuel deliveries to troops reached nearly 220,000 tons in September."
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/russian-fuel-shipments-troops-fighting-170154531.html

Conventional wisdom says this is the fuel necessary to support 300,000 new troops. Even if this was fuel meant for a new push deep into Ukraine, I think the Kerch Bridge damage may have changed those plans. Stockpiling fuel could also be due to the Ukrainian military's effectiveness at cutting off and destroying Russian resupply efforts. It now takes much more fuel to transport supplies by truck further from the front lines than it did a few months ago (although that distance is shrinking with all the recent Ukrainian territorial gains).

"Repairs to the bridge between the annexed Crimean peninsula and southern Russia, which was damaged in an explosion last Saturday, are to be finished by July 2023, a document published on the Russian government's website said."
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/crimea-bridge-repairs-be-finished-by-july-2023-russian-government-document-2022-10-14/

My guess is this could be disinformation. They may wish to conduct a Winter counter-offensive to catch the Ukrainian's off-guard. However, if the bridge is out for at least 60-days, I think it's immaterial. Whether Crimea has 8 or 48 days of fuel won't change the necessity for Russian troops to retreat once they run out of fuel and ammunition and panic en masse. Since Russia is pulling out the senior FSB officials, it is more likely their defense will collapse once the line troops realize the people shooting deserters in the back are without leadership. In the meantime, Russia will likely attempt to transport as much fuel by truck and ferry to stockpile as much supplies as possible.

300,000 thousand conscripts does sound formidable. The game changer here is that the 300,000 new troops aren't trained. I suspect the Russian soldier that drove his armored vehicle directly into an anti-tank mine laid out of the road was either a completely exhausted veteran or a completely untrained conscript who couldn't even recognize what an anti-tank mine looked like. Many of the well-rested veteran Russian troops are in Crimea, who may not be getting sufficient supplies over the winter months.

Things look grim for Russia in Ukraine right now.

PP, thanks for sharing here. So if I infer correctly, you are saying that running out of fuel/supplies is inevitable in Crimea? That ferries and one lane will not be sufficient to get through the winter? That would be my guess, but love to hear it confirmed from folks who know better.

Yes, I also thought that 300K sounded formidable, but then the photos of some of the conscripts persuaded me to the contrary. My guess is that the US calling up 300K reservists might yield similar results. My very fit middle school PE teacher was a reservist along with her boyfriend, but many of the reservists I knew as a kid were not. It was, as it was for my MS PE teacher, all about a legal paycheck.

the landmine explosion is just stunning - better to be blown to bits by the enemy, then shot in the back by one of your own?

BRIDGE

I believe the repair of the rail is far more important than the road. Russia claimed that freight rail traffic was already restored. This is confusing since the satellite photos clearly showed repair cars on either side of the damage, as well as many repair workers with orange vests.
https://www.wsj.com/video/repairs-under-way-on-crimea-bridge-as-trucks-wait-for-days-to-leave/F6787D4A-E0A9-44DE-972F-97DFB696AC85.html

I don't know the actual bridge capacity, but I can guess. My guess is that the rail was impacted and may not shipping freight, or if it is, at a greatly diminished capacity.

The Russian Ural military truck typically carries up to 4.2 tons or 24 troops. In the U.S. the Average 70-car freight hauls 3,000 tons. That averages about 43 trips by truck for every freight car. 3,000 tons translates into 714 Ural truckloads. Let's say the Russian train only had 10 cars of passengers, of 40 troops per car (400 troops). Moving 100,000 troops would be 250 train trips, or 4,167 Russian Ural truck trips (in other words, you're at about 6% of your prior transport efficiency). Add to that the loss of ground traffic, and the efficiency is even less.

Although it's just a guess, the public satellite photos seem to confirm this may be not a completely unreasonable guess.

"the current wait time for a cargo truck awaiting a ferry is three to four days."
"Other photos show several hundred cargo trucks parked at an abandoned airport nearby, also waiting to be ferried to Russia"
https://www.axios.com/2022/10/13/photo-cargo-truck-crimea-bridge-explosion

Remember that the ferry is not just transporting Russian military supplies, but it's also transporting everything the Crimean civilian population needs to survive. A three or four day wait would generally impact frozen or refrigerated item transport unless they were queued first. What I can also guess is that if even one of those ferries needs maintenance, especially in winter, would be a problem for both Russian forces trying to resupply and the population in Crimea.

To get the exact number, I don't know how many train trips were before and after. To get the exact number of what supplies are getting through on the one lane, someone would need to calculate the number of heavy trucks that traversed the bridge before the explosion in a 7 day period (as an average) as well as the number of trains and train cars in the same timeframe. Calculate out the tonnage carried, then subtract the number of trucks ferried in 7 days. That would be the before-and-after difference. That level of detail is something that I couldn't find on the web.

TANK MINE
Hard to say. Could've been tired and didn't see it (tank vision blocks aren't full vision, it looked like he was pulling up from the ditch onto the road?). Could've been suicide. Could've just been untrained and didn't know an antitank mine from a box of tissues. Regardless, there seem to be many more stories like this being reported.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Lol - I watched that Russian drive over the land mine like 5 times.
Too funny.

I really DO think that was a suicide attempt.

Some of the comments on twitter are hilarious.

One of the best was “Russian mine clearing operation successful”.

Anonymous wrote:Lol - I watched that Russian drive over the land mine like 5 times.
Too funny.

I really DO think that was a suicide attempt.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I want to hear more about "severe rationing" that's claimed here.

It appears the rationing order was rescinded due to an “error.” There is supposed to be a 49 day supply of petrol as of five days ago, as if there is somewhere to which to drive.

In other words, whoever posted that severe rationing was imposed on civilians has lied?

Take it up with media reporting pronouncements by the Russian goon squad leader. You’re welcome.

https://kyivindependent.com/uncategorized/crimean-occupation-government-introduces-rationing-cancels-it-in-an-hour

No, it's much funner taking it up with a moron mindlessly posting whatever she finds without a modicum of critical thinking to see if it's true.

Which part is untrue? There was an civil rationing order promulgated. It was reported widely. People queued up for petrol and food. The order was countermanded. Otherwise things are going just great in Crimea!

I'm amazed that one guy survived the land mine explosion. He must've had his bell rung so hard. WTF?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I want to hear more about "severe rationing" that's claimed here.

It appears the rationing order was rescinded due to an “error.” There is supposed to be a 49 day supply of petrol as of five days ago, as if there is somewhere to which to drive.

In other words, whoever posted that severe rationing was imposed on civilians has lied?

Take it up with media reporting pronouncements by the Russian goon squad leader. You’re welcome.

https://kyivindependent.com/uncategorized/crimean-occupation-government-introduces-rationing-cancels-it-in-an-hour

No, it's much funner taking it up with a moron mindlessly posting whatever she finds without a modicum of critical thinking to see if it's true.

Let me add to your humor then.

"Russian fuel shipments to troops fighting in Ukraine last month hit the highest level since the invasion began."
"A report from Bloomberg said Wednesday fuel deliveries to troops reached nearly 220,000 tons in September."
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/russian-fuel-shipments-troops-fighting-170154531.html

Conventional wisdom says this is the fuel necessary to support 300,000 new troops. Even if this was fuel meant for a new push deep into Ukraine, I think the Kerch Bridge damage may have changed those plans. Stockpiling fuel could also be due to the Ukrainian military's effectiveness at cutting off and destroying Russian resupply efforts. It now takes much more fuel to transport supplies by truck further from the front lines than it did a few months ago (although that distance is shrinking with all the recent Ukrainian territorial gains).

"Repairs to the bridge between the annexed Crimean peninsula and southern Russia, which was damaged in an explosion last Saturday, are to be finished by July 2023, a document published on the Russian government's website said."
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/crimea-bridge-repairs-be-finished-by-july-2023-russian-government-document-2022-10-14/

My guess is this could be disinformation. They may wish to conduct a Winter counter-offensive to catch the Ukrainian's off-guard. However, if the bridge is out for at least 60-days, I think it's immaterial. Whether Crimea has 8 or 48 days of fuel won't change the necessity for Russian troops to retreat once they run out of fuel and ammunition and panic en masse. Since Russia is pulling out the senior FSB officials, it is more likely their defense will collapse once the line troops realize the people shooting deserters in the back are without leadership. In the meantime, Russia will likely attempt to transport as much fuel by truck and ferry to stockpile as much supplies as possible.

300,000 thousand conscripts does sound formidable. The game changer here is that the 300,000 new troops aren't trained. I suspect the Russian soldier that drove his armored vehicle directly into an anti-tank mine laid out of the road was either a completely exhausted veteran or a completely untrained conscript who couldn't even recognize what an anti-tank mine looked like. Many of the well-rested veteran Russian troops are in Crimea, who may not be getting sufficient supplies over the winter months.

Things look grim for Russia in Ukraine right now.

PP, thanks for sharing here. So if I infer correctly, you are saying that running out of fuel/supplies is inevitable in Crimea? That ferries and one lane will not be sufficient to get through the winter? That would be my guess, but love to hear it confirmed from folks who know better.

Yes, I also thought that 300K sounded formidable, but then the photos of some of the conscripts persuaded me to the contrary. My guess is that the US calling up 300K reservists might yield similar results. My very fit middle school PE teacher was a reservist along with her boyfriend, but many of the reservists I knew as a kid were not. It was, as it was for my MS PE teacher, all about a legal paycheck.

the landmine explosion is just stunning - better to be blown to bits by the enemy, then shot in the back by one of your own?

Anonymous wrote:Lol - I watched that Russian drive over the land mine like 5 times.
Too funny.

Did they really think they were going to thread that needle, so to speak? Just wow.

Anonymous wrote:Lol - I watched that Russian drive over the land mine like 5 times.
Too funny.

???