Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:builders are going to stop building because 1. mortgage rates are skyrocketing and 2. so is inflation. so you guys can argue about yimbys vs nimbys and zoning and whatever dumb red herring is the latest fad among lefties, but none of that is going to amount to a hill of beans.

This is true but YIMBYs don’t understand this and the ones that do pretend that they don’t. Because according to them the only reason housing doesn’t get built is zoning.

The reckoning is coming soon. Developers mobilized all these people with grand promises that they’ll never deliver.

It’s an ideology that cannot fail but only be failed.

Because if you follow the ridiculous logical string, all projects should eventually “pencil out” with a 25 FAR and no height limit or design standards.

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Anonymous wrote:Adding more homes in D.C. isn't going to make a lick of difference to prices. Sorry. There is no amount of housing units that could realistically be added that would ever, ever, ever make a difference in housing costs. YIMBYs are in the business of bumper sticker solutions to complex problems. It's easier to demonize NIMBYs than to come up with realistic answers to the question of housing costs.

Evidence? You cant just say stuff you 'feel' is true. You can do better. Try again.

Ward 6 has added housing for 32,000 more people in the last 10 years, to the point where they had to redistrict and shrink its geographic size due to disproportionate population growth - and it hasn't done jack spit for lowing prices.

Wards 7 and 8 complain about lack of development. DC needs to focus there.

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Anonymous wrote:This is a GREAT podcast on the housing debate, and why we are failing to provide affordable housing in blue states in particular. A lot of it has to do with super-strict building regulation, but a lot of it is the power of NIMBYs.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/19/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-jenny-schuetz.html?referringSource=articleShare

I voted Blair for jobs and public safety. I really don't care about housing.

YIMBYs are basically a libertarian, deregulation movement. Which is fine, but that’s what they are. To they extent that there is an issue with housing production, it’s not so much regulation as it is finance. After the Global Financial Crisis builders stopped building and not because they cannot, but because they are more careful now about managing supply to maximize their profits and manage downside risk. Any discussion about housing that doesn’t mention this is not an honest discussion.

YMBY is not a libertarian movement.

It is a movement that understands that the racist roots of much of the single family zoning has artificially inflated the cost of land and homes. It is a movement that recognizes that the zoning regime and historic preservation has been weaponized to maintain a classist status quo.

Of course. Racist!!! SFH are racist. People who live in them - racist! What a crock full of sh!t.

The exclusionary land use and practice of racial and religious covenants associated with the creation and construction of many DC nieghborhoods was in fact racist.

The continuing protection of the status quo of said single family neighborhoods, is, in fact, exclusionary.

These are facts.

No. While the history may be right, no neighborhoods are exclusionary. Folks of all colors can live wherever they can afford to.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:builders are going to stop building because 1. mortgage rates are skyrocketing and 2. so is inflation. so you guys can argue about yimbys vs nimbys and zoning and whatever dumb red herring is the latest fad among lefties, but none of that is going to amount to a hill of beans.

This is true but YIMBYs don’t understand this and the ones that do pretend that they don’t. Because according to them the only reason housing doesn’t get built is zoning.

The reckoning is coming soon. Developers mobilized all these people with grand promises that they’ll never deliver.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:builders are going to stop building because 1. mortgage rates are skyrocketing and 2. so is inflation. so you guys can argue about yimbys vs nimbys and zoning and whatever dumb red herring is the latest fad among lefties, but none of that is going to amount to a hill of beans.

This is true but YIMBYs don’t understand this and the ones that do pretend that they don’t. Because according to them the only reason housing doesn’t get built is zoning.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:builders are going to stop building because 1. mortgage rates are skyrocketing and 2. so is inflation. so you guys can argue about yimbys vs nimbys and zoning and whatever dumb red herring is the latest fad among lefties, but none of that is going to amount to a hill of beans.

This is true but YIMBYs don’t understand this and the ones that do pretend that they don’t. Because according to them the only reason housing doesn’t get built is zoning.

Anonymous wrote:builders are going to stop building because 1. mortgage rates are skyrocketing and 2. so is inflation. so you guys can argue about yimbys vs nimbys and zoning and whatever dumb red herring is the latest fad among lefties, but none of that is going to amount to a hill of beans.

Anonymous wrote:It’s odd that so many YIMBYs who say they’re for affordable housing seem so focused on maximizing landlords’ profits. It’s almost as if they actually don’t care about renters. They only care about developers making money.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is a GREAT podcast on the housing debate, and why we are failing to provide affordable housing in blue states in particular. A lot of it has to do with super-strict building regulation, but a lot of it is the power of NIMBYs.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/19/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-jenny-schuetz.html?referringSource=articleShare

I voted Blair for jobs and public safety. I really don't care about housing.

YIMBYs are basically a libertarian, deregulation movement. Which is fine, but that’s what they are. To they extent that there is an issue with housing production, it’s not so much regulation as it is finance. After the Global Financial Crisis builders stopped building and not because they cannot, but because they are more careful now about managing supply to maximize their profits and manage downside risk. Any discussion about housing that doesn’t mention this is not an honest discussion.

YMBY is not a libertarian movement.

It is a movement that understands that the racist roots of much of the single family zoning has artificially inflated the cost of land and homes. It is a movement that recognizes that the zoning regime and historic preservation has been weaponized to maintain a classist status quo.

Of course. Racist!!! SFH are racist. People who live in them - racist! What a crock full of sh!t.

The exclusionary land use and practice of racial and religious covenants associated with the creation and construction of many DC nieghborhoods was in fact racist.

The continuing protection of the status quo of said single family neighborhoods, is, in fact, exclusionary.

These are facts.

No. While the history may be right, no neighborhoods are exclusionary. Folks of all colors can live wherever they can afford to.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Adding more homes in D.C. isn't going to make a lick of difference to prices. Sorry. There is no amount of housing units that could realistically be added that would ever, ever, ever make a difference in housing costs. YIMBYs are in the business of bumper sticker solutions to complex problems. It's easier to demonize NIMBYs than to come up with realistic answers to the question of housing costs.

Evidence? You cant just say stuff you 'feel' is true. You can do better. Try again.

Ward 6 has added housing for 32,000 more people in the last 10 years, to the point where they had to redistrict and shrink its geographic size due to disproportionate population growth - and it hasn't done jack spit for lowing prices.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:At least in Montgomery County the NIMBY/YIMBY thing is over and thank god. The debate is boring and involves some of the very worst people on both sides.

The new debate for the next four years will be developers vs developer. I cannot wait for the YIMBY bros to learn that it is developers and not powerless old people are what controls housing supply.

Will YIMBYs ever see that? The loudest voices in the local movement are funded by developers and land use lawyers. They’re never going to turn on their money, and any ideas that don’t align with those loud voices are immediately attacked as NIMBYism. We could eliminate density limits around the red line and YIMBYs would be blaming the ag preserve for high housing prices. YIMBYs will find any reason to blame government so they don’t have to face reality.

There are 2 developer interests. (1) Builders that don’t currently own land or own undeveloped land and want to build greenfield, such as Toll Bros., and (2) existing Commercial Real Estate owners, like Greenhill, who want to maximize profits on properties they currently own.

The first group can build the types of entry-level homes for sale that the market is desperate for, with the primary goal to sell as quickly as possible and exit with profit. The second group, which includes Greenhill, Peterson snd FRIT, wants to extract money through literal rent, as well as economic rent seeking and therefore tries to use the government to prevent the first group from building to protect their margins.

The first group had a friend in Ike Leggett and I suspect also in David Blair, who even made a TV commercial about greenfield development at White Flint. The second group had Riemer and Hucker in their pockets and will continue to have friends in Casey Anderson, Friedson, and now Natali Fani Gonzalez.

Within 12 months, I bet that the second group is going to start sounding like NIMBYs (talking about “smart growth” and affordability requirements which YIMBYs would rightly see as impediments to housing supply) as they try to block development proposals pushed by Blair, particularly upcounty in and around places like Damascus, Boyds and Marriottsville. I think we will also see them get quite protective about White Flint when the Council and Planning spent the last 4 years pretending it did not exist (my personal take is that I was up in Towson recently and that would be a perfect site to attract a university). They will also try to block enabling infrastructure for development, particularly roads.

The fight over the SSP/“growth and infrastructure policy” in 2 years is going to be massive.

This is why I hope Elrich pulls it out.

It’s better this way and more honest. Without their bogeyman to blame, they will be on the clock to produce results.

My guess is that once enough developers are satisfied with their subsidies, “affordable housing” gets ignored and loses salience as an issue. All they have to do is pull the plug on the astroturf funding and poof. The politicians also don’t want to be held to any standards so they are going to try to change the subject.

The reality is that “affordable housing” as an issue in Montgomery County has always been a canard. The county is substantially more affordable than DC, Arlington and Fairfax. It’s why when pressed these folks always scream about Chevy Chase, Bethesda and Potomac from their million dollar Takoma Park craftsman’s. Because historically, the rest of the county has always been and still is affordable.

The problem in Montgomery County is not how much housing costs. It’s that the populace is getting poorer.

Expect a shift to attracting businesses and jobs very soon.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is a GREAT podcast on the housing debate, and why we are failing to provide affordable housing in blue states in particular. A lot of it has to do with super-strict building regulation, but a lot of it is the power of NIMBYs.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/19/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-jenny-schuetz.html?referringSource=articleShare

I voted Blair for jobs and public safety. I really don't care about housing.

YIMBYs are basically a libertarian, deregulation movement. Which is fine, but that’s what they are. To they extent that there is an issue with housing production, it’s not so much regulation as it is finance. After the Global Financial Crisis builders stopped building and not because they cannot, but because they are more careful now about managing supply to maximize their profits and manage downside risk. Any discussion about housing that doesn’t mention this is not an honest discussion.

YMBY is not a libertarian movement.

It is a movement that understands that the racist roots of much of the single family zoning has artificially inflated the cost of land and homes. It is a movement that recognizes that the zoning regime and historic preservation has been weaponized to maintain a classist status quo.

Of course. Racist!!! SFH are racist. People who live in them - racist! What a crock full of sh!t.

The exclusionary land use and practice of racial and religious covenants associated with the creation and construction of many DC nieghborhoods was in fact racist.

The continuing protection of the status quo of said single family neighborhoods, is, in fact, exclusionary.

These are facts.

Anonymous wrote:There's a difference between advocating for responsible development for example wanting to make sure there is the necessary infrastructure, amenities and livability factors including green space and community space, services et cetera needed to support the added population, versus being a "nimby" yet the obnoxious a-hole GGWash'ers and so-called "Smart Growthers" sling the "nimby" pejorative the second anyone deigns to raise a single question.