Anonymous wrote:Dc’s unhooked friend who may not even graduate due to school avoidance got into a stop 25 school; meanwhile another friend who is a Valedictorian ( in a school that only has one) was rejected from that school and is looking like best options are below Top 50, and may choose a school below top 100 for the full ride, because at that point, what’s the difference?

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I understand some families have overly high expectations and would have benefited from more accurate information about current conditions. However you're being downright nasty, OP. Plenty of families have been rejected from their preferred choices (yes, families, it's all right if it's a family thing, and not just the student's thing), and are pretty down.

But perhaps cruelty is the point of your post. In which case... thoughts and prayers.

Sorry that you feel I'm being nasty. I understand why families and/or kids would feel upset from rejection. I'm not arguing that they shouldn't be down. What I'm trying to understand is what happened that put them in the situation where they were surprised? There is a difference being upset about rejection but you realized the odds were low versus being surprised because you didn't think rejection was a likely outcome. So is that the answer--they didn't have accurate information? Are students largely applying to schools in information vacuums? What are college counselors telling students/families?

We were prepared and still felt disappointment/mild surprise at some results. I am an optimistic person by nature. I hold out hope for my sports teams even when there are seconds left in the game and almost statistically impossible to win. It’s called hope. Yes, there are probably parents who feel entitled, but also many who are optimistic which is part of being human. You swing for the fences because you believe you can hit them even when you’ve struck out before and are facing a tough pitcher.

OP, it sounds like you are a very pragmatic person who maybe is a matter of fact realist who may see the glass half empty a fair amount. That’s fine if that is how your mind works. Other people’s minds work differently. They know the odds are long but someone will get an offer so why not them. Some of these people will pursue what they want no matter the odds. We need people like this too.

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Anonymous wrote:Where you unaware of the significant increase in applications since COVID? Did you think TO would have no effect on the applicant pool? Did anyone (e.g., college counselor) discuss yield projection for perceived "safety" schools? Do you consider the math/odds in applying to a school that accepts less than 20% of applicants? Did you discuss any of these issues with your kids before they applied? Or is it something else?

I heard there was expected to be a huge increase in applications but I wasn't sure what that impact would be. We figured that the schools would still look at tests for those students that did submit them. I remember seeing statistics showing that for TO schools in the prior year, the acceptance rate was higher for students that did submit test scores. We guessed that the increase in applications is mainly from students who are reaching at schools that they normally would not have applied to and that the schools will still find a way to admit students according to their normal standards. In short, we figured that TO was largely a form of virtue signaling. Apparently, we were wrong.

My kid's counselor was very reassuring to our kid regarding his chances of being accepted. Looking at the Naviance map for his ED school, his stats are in the heart of a cluster of checkmarks and only one X. Despite this, we applied to 20+ schools because ED/EA rounds completely shattered our preconceived notions. Now the counselor is voicing frustration and the sinking feeling that the students haven't been given adequate guidance this year. One student with a 3.6 GPA and 1350 SAT applied to a "normal" number of schools and did not get into any of them.

We did consider the math/odds but felt confident about our kid's stats, ECs, recommendations, and essay quality. Even if he has bad luck at one, two, three, or four schools, he should not have bad luck at 10 or 20 schools. We are engineers and we understand statistics; both of us are also in administrative roles and write documents targeted toward a variety of audiences so we understand the importance of connecting with the reader. I believe we were rationally optimistic based on the then-best-available information.

I do want to congratulate all the students that got into a school that they are happy with. It's a valuable opportunity and I wish them the very best.

And???

And is right.

And by the way, if this is a public school you're talking about, all you're doing is proving our point. A 3.6 GPA is inconsistent with a 1350 SAT score.

NP, still waiting to hear how a 3.6 is inconsistent with a 1350. Should the SAT score be lower or higher?

If a kid is doing 3.6 level work, then the SAT should be higher - at least 1400, and probably 1450. That's why I asked if it's a public school. A 3.6 at a public school is not the same as a 3.6 at a private.

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Anonymous wrote:So what should we do as parents of juniors. I have a high stats junior...really am a bit flummoxed as to how to advise him.

We can’t help you. It’s all guesswork.

Anonymous wrote:I haven’t read the whole thread, but, OP, of course we did. That’s why our kids spread the applications widely (from top 10 to 135 and some not in that rank at all) and spent hours on the “ why this school “ essays. Nonetheless, the results up and down the list were like an acid trip. No rhyme or reason. We have no idea how to approach it with our next kid.

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Anonymous wrote:As the parent of a sophomore the thing I find concerning reading all these posts is that the system seems so capricious with a hefty dose of luck involved. My kid will probably be fairly high stats and I think is going to want to ED to a school ranked around 25. That may work out or not, and we get that and that other top schools are a lottery. What freaks me out a little is the stories of kids not getting into the safeties it’s been recommended they fall in love with either because of yield protection or increases in applications. It seems like some kids can fall betwixt and between. Hopefully applying to enough schools will lessen that risk however 1) it may be hard to “fall in love” with multiple safeties and 2) it does seem like all of that is just compounding the problem with kids feeling they need to apply to 15 plus schools to spread the risk.

Part of the phenomenon that I think I'm seeing is that particular schools that have been safeties all of a sudden get incredibly "hot." So you may have 1/3 of the graduating class applying to the same school as a safety. At some point, there is simply a limit to how many students are going to be admitted from any one school to Pitt, or UVM, or UCSB, or UICU. The parents and the college counselor are looking at Naviance and seeing a sea of green checkmarks, but they aren't taking into account that there are literally 5X as many students applying in this cycle then 3-4 years ago. And because schools tend to get "hot" not just at one school but regionally/throughout similar school districts with similar student bodies, it becomes even harder to stand out. And so acceptances plummet.

You could kind of see this happening in real time over last summer and early fall, and you could also see the acceptances and merit aid at those schools dropping precipitously. My DC is at a private school, but just looking at Naviance, and to give one example, the number of students applying to Pitt more than tripled between 2018 and 2022, to the point where more than 1/3 of the class applied there. The number of acceptances remained about the same, but it means that it completely changed category-wise. UCSB applications more than doubled in the past five years, and UVM application numbers were also markedly up.

In trying to figure out whether a school that was previously a safety remains a safety (and a match a match, reach a reach), you need to look not just at historic admissions rates but also at sheer volume of applications and trends over time. That's the only way to assess whether the historic admissions data can be a reliable indicator of DC's chances.

FWIW, all of my kids' safeties were at small schools, but there just weren't a lot of kids from DC's school applying to them and there weren't any more this year than in past years, with our DC as often the only applicant or one of only 1-2. In our case, the historic #s were extremely predictive of admissions outcomes, although we had a couple of nice surprises from reach schools also.

Bump. Nobody wants to hear this, but it's true.

ITA. Thinking more about this, some ideas for "safety" universities that aren't as hot as Pitt, UVM, etc but which are great (and fun) schools:

Indiana--Bloomington
UMass Amherst
Delaware
Auburn

and SLACs:

Clark
Lawrence
St. Olaf
Muhlenberg
Wooster
Wheaton (MA)

IU and Auburn, especially Auburn, should not be on that list. They are no longer reliable safeties after this cycle.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
I understand some families have overly high expectations and would have benefited from more accurate information about current conditions. However you're being downright nasty, OP. Plenty of families have been rejected from their preferred choices (yes, families, it's all right if it's a family thing, and not just the student's thing), and are pretty down.

But perhaps cruelty is the point of your post. In which case... thoughts and prayers.

Sorry that you feel I'm being nasty. I understand why families and/or kids would feel upset from rejection. I'm not arguing that they shouldn't be down. What I'm trying to understand is what happened that put them in the situation where they were surprised? There is a difference being upset about rejection but you realized the odds were low versus being surprised because you didn't think rejection was a likely outcome. So is that the answer--they didn't have accurate information? Are students largely applying to schools in information vacuums? What are college counselors telling students/families?

Anonymous wrote:So what should we do as parents of juniors. I have a high stats junior...really am a bit flummoxed as to how to advise him.

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Anonymous wrote:Kicking parents/ high school seniors when they are down is ugly and pathetic op.

The OP simply asked questions. Defensive parents who overreached will get salty.

Hopefully, the class of 2023 parents will take heed and adjust.

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Anonymous wrote:Where you unaware of the significant increase in applications since COVID? Did you think TO would have no effect on the applicant pool? Did anyone (e.g., college counselor) discuss yield projection for perceived "safety" schools? Do you consider the math/odds in applying to a school that accepts less than 20% of applicants? Did you discuss any of these issues with your kids before they applied? Or is it something else?

I heard there was expected to be a huge increase in applications but I wasn't sure what that impact would be. We figured that the schools would still look at tests for those students that did submit them. I remember seeing statistics showing that for TO schools in the prior year, the acceptance rate was higher for students that did submit test scores. We guessed that the increase in applications is mainly from students who are reaching at schools that they normally would not have applied to and that the schools will still find a way to admit students according to their normal standards. In short, we figured that TO was largely a form of virtue signaling. Apparently, we were wrong.

My kid's counselor was very reassuring to our kid regarding his chances of being accepted. Looking at the Naviance map for his ED school, his stats are in the heart of a cluster of checkmarks and only one X. Despite this, we applied to 20+ schools because ED/EA rounds completely shattered our preconceived notions. Now the counselor is voicing frustration and the sinking feeling that the students haven't been given adequate guidance this year. One student with a 3.6 GPA and 1350 SAT applied to a "normal" number of schools and did not get into any of them.

We did consider the math/odds but felt confident about our kid's stats, ECs, recommendations, and essay quality. Even if he has bad luck at one, two, three, or four schools, he should not have bad luck at 10 or 20 schools. We are engineers and we understand statistics; both of us are also in administrative roles and write documents targeted toward a variety of audiences so we understand the importance of connecting with the reader. I believe we were rationally optimistic based on the then-best-available information.

I do want to congratulate all the students that got into a school that they are happy with. It's a valuable opportunity and I wish them the very best.

And???

And is right.

And by the way, if this is a public school you're talking about, all you're doing is proving our point. A 3.6 GPA is inconsistent with a 1350 SAT score.

NP, still waiting to hear how a 3.6 is inconsistent with a 1350. Should the SAT score be lower or higher?

If a kid is doing 3.6 level work, then the SAT should be higher - at least 1400, and probably 1450. That's why I asked if it's a public school. A 3.6 at a public school is not the same as a 3.6 at a private.

DC had a bit of the opposite - 35 ACT and 3.5ish GPA. DC easily able to demonstrated consistent upwards progress in grades, but the first two semesters in the 3.2 range are a millstone around a GPA.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Where you unaware of the significant increase in applications since COVID? Did you think TO would have no effect on the applicant pool? Did anyone (e.g., college counselor) discuss yield projection for perceived "safety" schools? Do you consider the math/odds in applying to a school that accepts less than 20% of applicants? Did you discuss any of these issues with your kids before they applied? Or is it something else?

I heard there was expected to be a huge increase in applications but I wasn't sure what that impact would be. We figured that the schools would still look at tests for those students that did submit them. I remember seeing statistics showing that for TO schools in the prior year, the acceptance rate was higher for students that did submit test scores. We guessed that the increase in applications is mainly from students who are reaching at schools that they normally would not have applied to and that the schools will still find a way to admit students according to their normal standards. In short, we figured that TO was largely a form of virtue signaling. Apparently, we were wrong.

My kid's counselor was very reassuring to our kid regarding his chances of being accepted. Looking at the Naviance map for his ED school, his stats are in the heart of a cluster of checkmarks and only one X. Despite this, we applied to 20+ schools because ED/EA rounds completely shattered our preconceived notions. Now the counselor is voicing frustration and the sinking feeling that the students haven't been given adequate guidance this year. One student with a 3.6 GPA and 1350 SAT applied to a "normal" number of schools and did not get into any of them.

We did consider the math/odds but felt confident about our kid's stats, ECs, recommendations, and essay quality. Even if he has bad luck at one, two, three, or four schools, he should not have bad luck at 10 or 20 schools. We are engineers and we understand statistics; both of us are also in administrative roles and write documents targeted toward a variety of audiences so we understand the importance of connecting with the reader. I believe we were rationally optimistic based on the then-best-available information.

I do want to congratulate all the students that got into a school that they are happy with. It's a valuable opportunity and I wish them the very best.

And???

And is right.

And by the way, if this is a public school you're talking about, all you're doing is proving our point. A 3.6 GPA is inconsistent with a 1350 SAT score.

NP, still waiting to hear how a 3.6 is inconsistent with a 1350. Should the SAT score be lower or higher?

If a kid is doing 3.6 level work, then the SAT should be higher - at least 1400, and probably 1450. That's why I asked if it's a public school. A 3.6 at a public school is not the same as a 3.6 at a private.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Where you unaware of the significant increase in applications since COVID? Did you think TO would have no effect on the applicant pool? Did anyone (e.g., college counselor) discuss yield projection for perceived "safety" schools? Do you consider the math/odds in applying to a school that accepts less than 20% of applicants? Did you discuss any of these issues with your kids before they applied? Or is it something else?

I heard there was expected to be a huge increase in applications but I wasn't sure what that impact would be. We figured that the schools would still look at tests for those students that did submit them. I remember seeing statistics showing that for TO schools in the prior year, the acceptance rate was higher for students that did submit test scores. We guessed that the increase in applications is mainly from students who are reaching at schools that they normally would not have applied to and that the schools will still find a way to admit students according to their normal standards. In short, we figured that TO was largely a form of virtue signaling. Apparently, we were wrong.

My kid's counselor was very reassuring to our kid regarding his chances of being accepted. Looking at the Naviance map for his ED school, his stats are in the heart of a cluster of checkmarks and only one X. Despite this, we applied to 20+ schools because ED/EA rounds completely shattered our preconceived notions. Now the counselor is voicing frustration and the sinking feeling that the students haven't been given adequate guidance this year. One student with a 3.6 GPA and 1350 SAT applied to a "normal" number of schools and did not get into any of them.

We did consider the math/odds but felt confident about our kid's stats, ECs, recommendations, and essay quality. Even if he has bad luck at one, two, three, or four schools, he should not have bad luck at 10 or 20 schools. We are engineers and we understand statistics; both of us are also in administrative roles and write documents targeted toward a variety of audiences so we understand the importance of connecting with the reader. I believe we were rationally optimistic based on the then-best-available information.

I do want to congratulate all the students that got into a school that they are happy with. It's a valuable opportunity and I wish them the very best.

And???

And is right.

And by the way, if this is a public school you're talking about, all you're doing is proving our point. A 3.6 GPA is inconsistent with a 1350 SAT score.

NP, still waiting to hear how a 3.6 is inconsistent with a 1350. Should the SAT score be lower or higher?

If a kid is doing 3.6 level work, then the SAT should be higher - at least 1400, and probably 1450. That's why I asked if it's a public school. A 3.6 at a public school is not the same as a 3.6 at a private.