The District reflects a national trend of population loss or very little growth. The overall U.S. population grew by 392,665 in 2021 – just 0.1% – which is the lowest rate since it was founded in 1776. The U.S. Census Bureau attributed the overall slow rate of population growth nationally to decreased net international migration, decreased fertility, and increased mortality as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So many people on this thread are reading way too much into this data. Young educated renters are the most mobile population in the country. During the pandemic, it was easy for them to move home with their parents, which many of them did to save money. Similarly, new graduates took DC jobs without relocating to DC, even though they knew along that they'd be making the move eventually. I can personally think of half a dozen people or more who fit these patterns. But again, these folks are mobile because moving is cheap for them; in nearly all the cases I'm aware of, the person is either already back in DC or is actively planning their return.

Also, anyone who wants to take this seriously should know that the Census Bureau uses a reference date of April 1st, i.e. a date in 2021 before full vaccination of the general population was widespread. It's quite likely that there has already been a reversal of this decline, as indicated by things like rent increases. Again, young renters are mobile. That shift won't show up until next year's numbers.

You seem to be too caught up into trying to prove that it’s nbd. DC has effectively centered its entire economic strategy around this group that you just said is the “most mobile”. So it is a bad strategy?

I'm not "caught up" in anything, I just understand statistics because it's my job.

I don't think it's a bad strategy for DC at all. Young renters are most mobile in that they have the lowest costs of moving, but they also have some of the strongest incentives to commute to an office for networking and potential social outlets. They're the most likely to leave in a pandemic, but also the most likely to come back afterward. They are more likely to value proximity to the kinds of amenities that DC provides, and they use fewer services in part because they don't have kids. Besides, if a segment of older professionals really is moving far out to get larger yards, DC can't possibly offer that to them no matter what it does, because its size is fixed. It makes more sense for the city to play to its comparative advantage instead, which means catering to young people and DINKs with lots of disposable income.

I don't know why any of this is a surprise to anyone. Go read a forum that younger people post on like DC Reddit or one of the larger Instagram accounts, and you'll find plenty of stories of people who left for awhile but are now making their way back. I want to see lower crime and better schools as much as the next person, but it's not the 20-somethings who are making threads about crime and schools, that was never why they moved away, and it won't stop them from returning.

Statistics man suggests you are wrong because you aren’t reading Reddit for the anecdata. Since you are using your job to buttress your reputation, I’m going to suggest that are are bad at your job.

To be clear, Census annual population estimates don't provide a breakout by age, so there is nothing in those data to either confirm or deny my hypothesis. The American Community Survey estimates for 2021 won't be out for almost a year, so there's probably no data source large and representative enough for you to be able to answer this question right now as it pertains to DC specifically. If you've got a good one, I'd love to hear it.

The national data on geographic mobility do make it pretty clear that it's young people and renters who disproportionately made across-state moves between 2020 and 2021, though:

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2021/demo/geographic-mobility/cps-2021.html

Like I said, if you've got an actual data source that contradicts what I'm saying, I'm all ears. Otherwise, your anecdata are definitely no better than mine.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So many people on this thread are reading way too much into this data. Young educated renters are the most mobile population in the country. During the pandemic, it was easy for them to move home with their parents, which many of them did to save money. Similarly, new graduates took DC jobs without relocating to DC, even though they knew along that they'd be making the move eventually. I can personally think of half a dozen people or more who fit these patterns. But again, these folks are mobile because moving is cheap for them; in nearly all the cases I'm aware of, the person is either already back in DC or is actively planning their return.

Also, anyone who wants to take this seriously should know that the Census Bureau uses a reference date of April 1st, i.e. a date in 2021 before full vaccination of the general population was widespread. It's quite likely that there has already been a reversal of this decline, as indicated by things like rent increases. Again, young renters are mobile. That shift won't show up until next year's numbers.

You seem to be too caught up into trying to prove that it’s nbd. DC has effectively centered its entire economic strategy around this group that you just said is the “most mobile”. So it is a bad strategy?

I'm not "caught up" in anything, I just understand statistics because it's my job.

I don't think it's a bad strategy for DC at all. Young renters are most mobile in that they have the lowest costs of moving, but they also have some of the strongest incentives to commute to an office for networking and potential social outlets. They're the most likely to leave in a pandemic, but also the most likely to come back afterward. They are more likely to value proximity to the kinds of amenities that DC provides, and they use fewer services in part because they don't have kids. Besides, if a segment of older professionals really is moving far out to get larger yards, DC can't possibly offer that to them no matter what it does, because its size is fixed. It makes more sense for the city to play to its comparative advantage instead, which means catering to young people and DINKs with lots of disposable income.

I don't know why any of this is a surprise to anyone. Go read a forum that younger people post on like DC Reddit or one of the larger Instagram accounts, and you'll find plenty of stories of people who left for awhile but are now making their way back. I want to see lower crime and better schools as much as the next person, but it's not the 20-somethings who are making threads about crime and schools, that was never why they moved away, and it won't stop them from returning.

Statistics man suggests you are wrong because you aren’t reading Reddit for the anecdata. Since you are using your job to buttress your reputation, I’m going to suggest that are are bad at your job.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So many people on this thread are reading way too much into this data. Young educated renters are the most mobile population in the country. During the pandemic, it was easy for them to move home with their parents, which many of them did to save money. Similarly, new graduates took DC jobs without relocating to DC, even though they knew along that they'd be making the move eventually. I can personally think of half a dozen people or more who fit these patterns. But again, these folks are mobile because moving is cheap for them; in nearly all the cases I'm aware of, the person is either already back in DC or is actively planning their return.

Also, anyone who wants to take this seriously should know that the Census Bureau uses a reference date of April 1st, i.e. a date in 2021 before full vaccination of the general population was widespread. It's quite likely that there has already been a reversal of this decline, as indicated by things like rent increases. Again, young renters are mobile. That shift won't show up until next year's numbers.

You seem to be too caught up into trying to prove that it’s nbd. DC has effectively centered its entire economic strategy around this group that you just said is the “most mobile”. So it is a bad strategy?

I'm not "caught up" in anything, I just understand statistics because it's my job.

I don't think it's a bad strategy for DC at all. Young renters are most mobile in that they have the lowest costs of moving, but they also have some of the strongest incentives to commute to an office for networking and potential social outlets. They're the most likely to leave in a pandemic, but also the most likely to come back afterward. They are more likely to value proximity to the kinds of amenities that DC provides, and they use fewer services in part because they don't have kids. Besides, if a segment of older professionals really is moving far out to get larger yards, DC can't possibly offer that to them no matter what it does, because its size is fixed. It makes more sense for the city to play to its comparative advantage instead, which means catering to young people and DINKs with lots of disposable income.

I don't know why any of this is a surprise to anyone. Go read a forum that younger people post on like DC Reddit or one of the larger Instagram accounts, and you'll find plenty of stories of people who left for awhile but are now making their way back. I want to see lower crime and better schools as much as the next person, but it's not the 20-somethings who are making threads about crime and schools, that was never why they moved away, and it won't stop them from returning.