Anonymous wrote:It seems like everyone online can’t stand the County Executive and can’t wait to vote him out. Yet the people I talk to in person think he will win, for better or for worse, something of the “silent majority” effect, that the silent majority is not very online and are mask-wearing, covid-conscious do-gooders who are fine with the county executive, or just default to the incumbent establishment. Everyone I know however who closely follows local politics is frustrated with Elrich to say the least, and their views range from strongly wanting to vote him out, to probably voting for him because the other candidates are so terrible. But is there a “silent majority” who just vote for the incumbent or don’t follow local politics and just kind of go along with it? Where does Elrich expect to get votes if everyone who sort of supports him only does so passively?
+1 for the OP who pointed out his massive advantage as an incumbent. Incumbents hold an unusually strong edge in MoCo historically.
If mask wearing is an indicator of support for Elrich’s COVID policies, then his COVID policies have a lot of support. People stayed masked even outside after the mandate was dropped. The council seems to understand there’s broad support as well. Even Riemer, who goes out of his way to be disagreeable, has been tame in his criticism of the COVID restrictions, and he voted for all the restrictions (“Every. Single. One. Of. Them.,” as the Hans bros might say.)
Apart from Elrich’s COVID policies and incumbency, the makeup of the field heavily favors Elrich. Riemer will take more votes from Blair than Hucker will take from Elrich.
At the end of the day, Elrich has solved no problems, but Blair has no record, and Riemer’s record is a liability because, for example, it’s easier to explain in plain English why subsidies for million dollar condos are a bad idea than it is to explain why they’re a good idea. Moreover, even though Riemer prevailed on nearly every housing issue during his term on the council, housing is more expensive than ever. Elrich will be relentless in pointing this out.
I say all of this as a Blair supporter. We need someone who hasn’t been in elected office to change MoCo’s reputation for being hostile to business.