Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Also, OH and NC should be called pretty much on election day. If one or both go for Biden, Trump will have no path to 270.

I read that if Ohio is close, even if leaning toward Trump, that in and of itself is a really bad sign for Trump nationally. Kind of like how early on election night 2016, he started to really over perform in Florida and that was a very good sign for him. So here’s hoping, Ohio.

Makes sense. Ohio was won by Donald Trump by a margin of 8.13 points in 2016.

Now 538 says Trump is down by a point.

I have a kid in college at Oberlin. He has already had someone from a local GOtV effort help him switch his registration from Va to Ohio and properly request an early absentee ballot. I’m sure they will circle around in a month and make sure it is complete. I’m hoping similar efforts are happening at Ohio State and the other SLACs. There are probably 1000 extra Biden votes to be gotten at just Oberlin by OOS non-swing state helping kids switch registration and Ohio kids vote absentee. Maybe 10,000 plus at Ohio State. College kids are bemoaned because they often don’t vote. But they are new to the process and have extra hoops to jump through if they don’t live at home. Plus, many don’t realize that they can use college as their residence.

If you want to donate, look for Ohio GOTV efforts. Ones tailored towards college kids could swing the state if it’s close.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Also, OH and NC should be called pretty much on election day. If one or both go for Biden, Trump will have no path to 270.

I read that if Ohio is close, even if leaning toward Trump, that in and of itself is a really bad sign for Trump nationally. Kind of like how early on election night 2016, he started to really over perform in Florida and that was a very good sign for him. So here’s hoping, Ohio.

Makes sense. Ohio was won by Donald Trump by a margin of 8.13 points in 2016.

Now 538 says Trump is down by a point.

Anonymous wrote:Also, OH and NC should be called pretty much on election day. If one or both go for Biden, Trump will have no path to 270.

I read that if Ohio is close, even if leaning toward Trump, that in and of itself is a really bad sign for Trump nationally. Kind of like how early on election night 2016, he started to really over perform in Florida and that was a very good sign for him. So here’s hoping, Ohio.

Anonymous wrote:Also, OH and NC should be called pretty much on election day. If one or both go for Biden, Trump will have no path to 270.

Dems are already returning a lot more absentee ballots than Republicans.

Also, OH and NC should be called pretty much on election day. If one or both go for Biden, Trump will have no path to 270.

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Anonymous wrote:I have no reason to think that I'm better suited to predict this craziness than is 538. https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/2020-Electoral-Interactive-Map?promoref=promo

The tossups on this map (FL, OH, NC, part of Maine) will go to Trump. Biden still gets 290. He can lose PA and he'll have 270.

If Biden appears to have 270 EV the cries of cheating will be loud and possibly violent. And we should all be prepared for one faithless elector to keep Trump where he is.

I think polling will get worse for Trump in the coming weeks because of SCOTUS, COVID getting worse in red states and the economy continuing to stall. Ergo, while I don't think they all flip, I think Biden wins PA, NC, OH. I think there is an outside chance for Texas too.

Kelly is going to carry AZ for Biden.
Biden is from Scranton, he will carry PA.
NC is turning purple and Tillis is going to lose there.
I think Biden flips the OH suburbs.

I didn't go full on landslide with FL and TX because FL is always screwed up and DiSantis is going to do what he can there to help Trump and Texas, while polling is close, it just seems greedy to flip it, though it could happen.

The upper Midwest, particularly Michigan, are solidly blue this election. The Wisconsin Dems, particularly, have been doing a great job to ensure the Dems can end the gerrymandering there.

I have no reason to think that I'm better suited to predict this craziness than is 538. https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/2020-Electoral-Interactive-Map?promoref=promo

The tossups on this map (FL, OH, NC, part of Maine) will go to Trump. Biden still gets 290. He can lose PA and he'll have 270.

If Biden appears to have 270 EV the cries of cheating will be loud and possibly violent. And we should all be prepared for one faithless elector to keep Trump where he is.

Anonymous wrote:

While I don't like the outcome on this map, I do want to point out that according to Real Clear Politics, Biden is up:
3.3 in Ohio
4.3 in PA
3.2 in AZ

So even if he loses FL but wins PA or OH and AZ, that flips it.

Here’s mine - fatfingered Washington State so it should be dark blue but when I went back to change it I would have had to do the whole thing over. Ohio, Florida and North Carolina could all go either way IMO.

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Anonymous wrote:Here's my projection -

Really? Arkansas goes blue but not Nevada? Tennessee goes blue over NC? Louisiana goes blue over AZ? I need an explanation...

Here's my projection -

https://www.270towin.com/maps/ElRze

My prediction. What’s yours?!