I think in PK3, a "good" number is the top 10% of numbers. Even that is not enough for some DCPS schools for nonsiblings, but it will get you into a HRCS. In Pk4, top 20%. K and 1st, top 30%. 2nd and up, it varies by school but a number in the top 40% will get you somewhere. It's just really unlikely to have a "bad" number all of those years in a row. Mathematically possible, sure.

I have seen people misunderstand the lottery and screw it up. I have seen people waste a great number on a school I think is awful. I have seen people put all their chips on one school year and lose. And I have seen people try year after year to get into one specific school and fail. But at the elementary level, if you are a reasonable person who understands the basics of the lottery, an adequate school is definitely available. Maybe not your top choice, but adequate yes, definitely.

+1 it will work out eventually. How long you can handle the uncertainty is another matter.

I've played the lottery seven times between my two kids and had good enough numbers to get a kid in a hrcs or a hardy/deal feeder 3 times. 3 separate good enough draws, and this doesn't count sibling preference or getting into multiple good schools with one draw because you get into a school on your waitlist after getting a match.

One of my kids had a good enough number once but had terrible numbers the other 3 times we played.
One of my kids got lucky twice out of 5 tries, so three times getting bad numbers.

I have to agree it will work out. I also have to say that no school is without issues, even the schools boosted on here. We've been to three schools private and public and each one had its warts. So "work out" also means make peace with the imperfect place you land.

Anonymous wrote:My kids are in middle school now. Here in Brookland, everyone I know who wanted to stay in DC schools found a place that they like by first or second grade. Yes, there some horse trading in the early years for a few families, but we have so many options in the area. When my kids were little, people were using L-T as a placeholder until they lotteried for something better or their kids were old enough to start YY in PK4. Ironically the families we know who left for the Virginia suburbs left SWS, ITS and YY, so they were hardly lottery losers. One family we know lotteried into Stokes but opted to move WOTP. A few families left CMI for ITS, a bunch more left various DCI feeders for Latin and Basis. It helps to have multiple kids.

Good luck. It's not for the faint of heart, but there are many good options.

These are the people that don't actually want a city life and all its diversity. They really want a quiet bedroom communities and neighborhoods. They simply don't value city life enough to put up with the smaller homes, different crime rates from block to block and higher minority classrooms or the economic issues that come with a city and a family.
It was fun while they were young, single or even had babies but the reality of city and raising a family is likely a foreign concept. Of course there are folks that were raised here that few up to prefer the suburbs of MD or VA as well.

you will have better luck playing the real lottery and buying a better home. Most people diminish their expectations or move depending on how bold they got with their initial location. I have friends who bought a home in Brookland and they are convinced they will end in at Wilson but wanted the EOTP Pre-K. They are sort of crazy.

Anonymous wrote:My kids are in middle school now. Here in Brookland, everyone I know who wanted to stay in DC schools found a place that they like by first or second grade. Yes, there some horse trading in the early years for a few families, but we have so many options in the area. When my kids were little, people were using L-T as a placeholder until they lotteried for something better or their kids were old enough to start YY in PK4. Ironically the families we know who left for the Virginia suburbs left SWS, ITS and YY, so they were hardly lottery losers. One family we know lotteried into Stokes but opted to move WOTP. A few families left CMI for ITS, a bunch more left various DCI feeders for Latin and Basis. It helps to have multiple kids.

Good luck. It's not for the faint of heart, but there are many good options.

Why would someone leave CMI for ITS? I thought they were pretty similar to each other.

You're not 0 for 2 yet. There's often a ton of movement in late August through early October, and the school staff really hustles the lists along so they move fast. Tell us your best numbers and we can try to guess your chances.

What grades are you talking about? For PK3 and PK4, yes, the lottery is pretty hard. Siblings take most of the PK3 spots. We struck out for PK3, and struck out hard for PK4-- think literally the last number on the Mundo Verde list. But for K, with a number right about at the median of most lists, got into ITS in mid-September. It just doesn't take as good a number in K and 1st as it does in PK3 and PK4. Also, many schools offer more seats in K than in PK4-- sometimes entire classrooms more. So things loosen up quite a bit. If you do want to continue living in DC, I think PK3 through Kindergarten at a less than great school is a reasonable price to pay. It honestly doesn't matter that much in the long run where your child attends Kindergarten.

I do know some people who moved away, and I think the high housing costs in DC will continue to push people out to the burbs. But the move-awayers often left good (or at least adequate) schools. Everyone I know who continued to play the lottery landed somewhere they found satisfactory before October of 1st grade at the very latest.

My kids are in middle school now. Here in Brookland, everyone I know who wanted to stay in DC schools found a place that they like by first or second grade. Yes, there some horse trading in the early years for a few families, but we have so many options in the area. When my kids were little, people were using L-T as a placeholder until they lotteried for something better or their kids were old enough to start YY in PK4. Ironically the families we know who left for the Virginia suburbs left SWS, ITS and YY, so they were hardly lottery losers. One family we know lotteried into Stokes but opted to move WOTP. A few families left CMI for ITS, a bunch more left various DCI feeders for Latin and Basis. It helps to have multiple kids.

Good luck. It's not for the faint of heart, but there are many good options.

OP here. We can and will definitely move if need be, though I would prefer not to have to do that. We like our house and neighbors, but our in bounds is not great for middle to upper elementary certainly (let alone middle school). Think Raymond or LaSalle-Backus.

We're in a good for now charter that was 11th or 12th on our lottery list last year, but not sure how many more years to keep playing before throwing in the towel. Just wondering what others experiences have been, either first hand or from others.

OP are you saying you didn’t get into the HRCS of your choice or you didn’t get into preK at your neighborhood school?

Because for K and up there is always your neighborhood school.

I played the lottery and never got a better sport than 200. Not sure how people get so lucky.
Where do you live and what are your living arrangements that you cannot move? We have moved several times and so have our friends. All followed schools.

What were the schools on your lottery list? Are you including all super high demand schools, or do you have some realistic 'safety' schools that would be fine but not awesome? They do exist.

(1) You’ll either get in somewhere you want; (2) you’ll get in somewhere and decide it’s fine; (3) you get in somewhere and decide it’s terrible, but resign yourself because you can’t afford to move; (4) or you’ll move.

I’m sorry if you end up in #3. Obviously that happens. DC has a lottery; it doesn’t have enough terrific schools that everyone would be happy for their child to attend.

I think a bit of both. I have heard from numerous sources that people don't know anyone who didn't end up somewhere they wanted to be by K, or 1st. But I think part of that is a) people get comfortable with the choices they have; b) Maybe there were fewer people vying for the same number of slots even a few years ago compared to today; c) this is advice I'm getting from people with relatively young kids (like PK-2nd gradeish), so a school that they like for those years may not be the same school they like in 4th grade. And, as you say, some people are just going to move to where they can guarantee a school they want. But so far, most everyone I know who has done that did so before the K years.

We're 0/2 in the lottery and keep hearing this from folks with older kids. I have to admit, I'm getting lottery fatigue already and feel like it's selection bias. These folks are still in DC, so only hanging around with the folks that did end up winning the lottery. They're probably forgetting about those PK3 families that are now in MD. Plus we don't have a second child, so no sibling preference to up our odds.

What do you think, does it usually work out if you keep playing? Or are our friends full of it?