You don’t need a model to flatten the curve. You can just graph the observed cases and see if it’s flattening.

Anonymous wrote:This whole thing is a disgrace. All the models have been completely wrong. To call them "science" is laughable. They are nothing more than spitballs. To blow up families' livelihoods over these guesses is shameful. We need to get back to work.

Disgrace! You know whose favorite word that is!

Anonymous wrote:Bowser yesterday: We're preparing for a surge in hospitalizations in mid-June.

https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/local/dc-preparing-for-surge-in-coronavirus-hospitalizations-in-june/2279615/

Bowser today: We've flattened the curve.

Both can be true.

Anonymous wrote:This whole thing is a disgrace. All the models have been completely wrong. To call them "science" is laughable. They are nothing more than spitballs. To blow up families' livelihoods over these guesses is shameful. We need to get back to work.

Well the curve has flattened for right now but it will go back up as soon as we return to the office

and yes, the models are usually based on the worse case scenario minus some variable - that's where you start and then scale back as more info becomes available

we used info from Italy and Spain and China, groomed it for US populations, came up with the worst scenario and minus-ed some variable - maybe 5%

At the start of all this, there was an article posted on medium.com and on the link was elsewhere on dcum. There was a ton of uproar over it and how it was all wrong and based on nothing. The author basically said that the numbers were a guess, the models were a guess and based on flawed inputs and we should build models only on true data that we get from the US and make decisions on that. I started following the guy on twitter and looking back I think his article had a lot more merit than I first thought.

Bowser yesterday: We're preparing for a surge in hospitalizations in mid-June.

https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/local/dc-preparing-for-surge-in-coronavirus-hospitalizations-in-june/2279615/

Bowser today: We've flattened the curve.

Anonymous wrote:This whole thing is a disgrace. All the models have been completely wrong. To call them "science" is laughable. They are nothing more than spitballs. To blow up families' livelihoods over these guesses is shameful. We need to get back to work.

You can stomp your feet all you want. The virus doesn't care.

Except at the Days Inn on Connecticut Avenue

Well this is great news.

This whole thing is a disgrace. All the models have been completely wrong. To call them "science" is laughable. They are nothing more than spitballs. To blow up families' livelihoods over these guesses is shameful. We need to get back to work.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:After weeks of Bowser saying a spike in cases is right around the corner and that we need to prepare for the worst, she's now changing her tune dramatically, saying DC is seeing far fewer cases than models predicted.

https://twitter.com/Fox5Wagner/status/1252557229460463616

As Anthony Fauci said, "Models are really only as good as the assumptions that you put into the model." When you get new information, then you update your model. That's how it works. If your crystal ball works better than that, please make the results public.

For weeks, Bowser was using numbers from the model that assumed zero social distancing, even though DC residents had been pretty good about that for a month. Anyone with half a brain could see that was idiotic and needlessly pessimistic.

But but I thought we were 2 weeks behind Italy???

Anonymous wrote:After weeks of Bowser saying a spike in cases is right around the corner and that we need to prepare for the worst, she's now changing her tune dramatically, saying DC is seeing far fewer cases than models predicted.

https://twitter.com/Fox5Wagner/status/1252557229460463616

Well this was obvious. Now why are we wasting time setting up beds in the convention center again?

Anonymous wrote:After weeks of Bowser saying a spike in cases is right around the corner and that we need to prepare for the worst, she's now changing her tune dramatically, saying DC is seeing far fewer cases than models predicted.

https://twitter.com/Fox5Wagner/status/1252557229460463616

As Anthony Fauci said, "Models are really only as good as the assumptions that you put into the model." When you get new information, then you update your model. That's how it works. If your crystal ball works better than that, please make the results public.

Bowser's two weeks behind the rest of us.

After weeks of Bowser saying a spike in cases is right around the corner and that we need to prepare for the worst, she's now changing her tune dramatically, saying DC is seeing far fewer cases than models predicted.

https://twitter.com/Fox5Wagner/status/1252557229460463616