It sounds like the roads are at the minimum wet across the MoCo and temps are at or near
freezing and they will have a whole long and happy night to freeze completely since the
temps are set to drop through the night. The combination is quite conducive to create
very nasty road condition in the morning at least up until 9 or 10 am.

I vote 90% chance 2 hour delay
40% chance full day closing.

If they could do 4 hour delay then it all would be safe but they don't have
an option like that. It is either two or nothing, that is why the bets
are very illogical yet probable.

Fairfax County delayed.

They are fine

What are the chances they'll call it tonight? I don't see much room for any change in the forecast. Roads are wet and slushy and temps are and will be low.

TERRIBLE... 3” of ice on top of 2’ snow! Absolutely no school, no work, no outdoor sex tomorrow!!

Anonymous wrote:OP here.

Thank you, PP!

You are welcome. Nothing is fully predictable with snow and ice but
perhaps this will help you to know what to look for.

Anonymous wrote:
Trying to assess the possibility of a delay.

My high schooler is half sick and is wondering whether he should stay up late to finish his project or sleep right now and use the possible delay to finish it.

Stay up, finish the project, if there is delay, sleep then to make up for the lost sleep.

OP here.

Thank you, PP!

Anonymous wrote:
Trying to assess the possibility of a delay.

My high schooler is half sick and is wondering whether he should stay up late to finish his project or sleep right now and use the possible delay to finish it.

Delay looks pretty real at this time for MoCo. The roads are all wet, the temps are below freezing.

The formula to calculate the delay or closing for the morning is pretty simple.
The earliest busses leave the depot at 6 ish AM and pick the first kids at 6:20ish.
If the roads are not safe at this time, then there is 2 hour delay.
That means that roads MUST be safe by 8 to 8:20ish.

If you look at tomorrows weather, the temperature at 8 AM are projected as follows;
in Clarksburg: 28F
in Gaithersburg: 30F
in Rockville: 30F
in Bethesda: 32F
in Silver Spring: 32F

So you do the math. What is supposed to melt the black ice by 8 am for the busses
to safely carry kids in rural and urban areas? Probably nothing.
So however the two hour delay seem most possible, the full closing is also possible
however the very little snow there is as MCPS has a history of closing for black ice
more willingly then for any amount of snow because ice is what is the most unpredictable
and dangerous. Bus + Ice = Danger = greatest chance of closings and delays.

This is probably the only time ever that my sixth grader doesn’t want a delay, but she is scheduled for Outdoor Ed tomorrow and would be bummed to have that rescheduled and have to go to school the rest of the week instead. Already sad that the first honors orchestra rehearsal was canceled tonight.

Northern Hinterlands. Roads slushy but not frozen.

PG has a delay.

Forgot to add, I’m in Gaithersburg and the roads are just wet, but the temp is barely above freezing. It could be slick in the morning.

The news is making delays sound likely, but if he can finish tonight, he should do that and then sleep in tomorrow. If he doesn’t feel well enough to finish tonight, then there’s nothing he can do about it and he should just go to bed early.

Trying to assess the possibility of a delay.

My high schooler is half sick and is wondering whether he should stay up late to finish his project or sleep right now and use the possible delay to finish it.