Anonymous
07/25/2019 14:19
Subject: Re:What is stopping NoVA from reaching SV level prices?
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anybody who asks this question hasn't lived in SV and fundamentally doesn't understand the unique mix of economic conditions that have resulted in what it is today. No city is even a close 2nd.
OP here, I grew up in Palo Alto and Went to JLS, Gunn High. I saw my parent's shitbox go from 600k to 2.5 million in real time.
San Carlos kid here, and same. Mom grew up in Belmont, dad in Redwood City. They have always been there so they don't really understand how different it is from living elsewhere (nor will they move).
Anonymous
07/25/2019 14:18
Subject: Re:What is stopping NoVA from reaching SV level prices?
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:NoVA is nowhere near SV level prices. Its never going to reach those levels.
1. Geography- SV's geography makes expansion next to impossible -bay, mountains and areas that structurally or environmentally can't be built up enclose a small area. There are few roads in and out of SV so communities further out involve multi hour commutes. Public transportation is limited to BART or Caltrain. NoVA can expand out has better highway access in multiple directions than SV.
2. Rents are outrageous. Inventories for rentals is so low that people are paying more than they would on a 1M+ montage for rentals. There aren't many high rises and many restrictions on building high up unlike NoVA. NOVA and DC have tons of high rises.
3.Lower income and less expensive counties are nearby like PG and MoCo. The commutes to the cheaper areas are still way less than commute from say Gilroy (which now sells in the 1Ms) to SV.
4. Inventory turn over. In SV people age in place because the taxes freeze when you buy your house. They can't afford to move on a fixed income. The weather and one story houses make again in place more practical. Some people do cash out and move to Nevada or Arizona but lots just stay put. In NOVA and the surrounding areas retirees move out sooner.
All of this. Especially number 4. I'm thankful we don't have that kind of tax structure here. B/c the unintended consequences are CRAZY.
How do they prevent people from renting out homes and moving away but claiming low prop tax?
Anonymous
07/25/2019 14:18
Subject: Re:What is stopping NoVA from reaching SV level prices?
Geography is destiny.
Anonymous
07/25/2019 14:17
Subject: Re:What is stopping NoVA from reaching SV level prices?
Anonymous wrote:NoVA is nowhere near SV level prices. Its never going to reach those levels.
1. Geography- SV's geography makes expansion next to impossible -bay, mountains and areas that structurally or environmentally can't be built up enclose a small area. There are few roads in and out of SV so communities further out involve multi hour commutes. Public transportation is limited to BART or Caltrain. NoVA can expand out has better highway access in multiple directions than SV.
2. Rents are outrageous. Inventories for rentals is so low that people are paying more than they would on a 1M+ montage for rentals. There aren't many high rises and many restrictions on building high up unlike NoVA. NOVA and DC have tons of high rises.
3.Lower income and less expensive counties are nearby like PG and MoCo. The commutes to the cheaper areas are still way less than commute from say Gilroy (which now sells in the 1Ms) to SV.
4. Inventory turn over. In SV people age in place because the taxes freeze when you buy your house. They can't afford to move on a fixed income. The weather and one story houses make again in place more practical. Some people do cash out and move to Nevada or Arizona but lots just stay put. In NOVA and the surrounding areas retirees move out sooner.
All of this. Especially number 4. I'm thankful we don't have that kind of tax structure here. B/c the unintended consequences are CRAZY.
Anonymous
07/25/2019 14:15
Subject: Re:What is stopping NoVA from reaching SV level prices?
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Silicon Valley and Seattle are nice so they command high prices. NOVA is mostly a dump so will never get to their level.
Being "nice" has nothing to do with commanding high prices. Supply and demand does. The vast majority of San Francisco is a dump with drug addicts and homeless people crapping on the sidewalk in front of your $1.8 million run down townhouse. The schools are crap and the government is dysfunctional. Yet rent is $3500 for a 1 BR that hasn't had a bathroom update since the 50's.
The only thing nice about SF is the weather.
I like cool weather but I found the cold foggy of SF a real downer. August shouldn’t require coats, and the nights are ALWAYS freezing. I want coolnights not parka weather
Anonymous
07/25/2019 14:11
Subject: Re:What is stopping NoVA from reaching SV level prices?
Anonymous wrote:Silicon Valley and Seattle are nice so they command high prices. NOVA is mostly a dump so will never get to their level.
Being "nice" has nothing to do with commanding high prices. Supply and demand does. The vast majority of San Francisco is a dump with drug addicts and homeless people crapping on the sidewalk in front of your $1.8 million run down townhouse. The schools are crap and the government is dysfunctional. Yet rent is $3500 for a 1 BR that hasn't had a bathroom update since the 50's.
The only thing nice about SF is the weather.
Anonymous
07/25/2019 14:06
Subject: Re:What is stopping NoVA from reaching SV level prices?
Silicon Valley and Seattle are nice so they command high prices. NOVA is mostly a dump so will never get to their level.
Anonymous
07/25/2019 14:05
Subject: Re:What is stopping NoVA from reaching SV level prices?
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anybody who asks this question hasn't lived in SV and fundamentally doesn't understand the unique mix of economic conditions that have resulted in what it is today. No city is even a close 2nd.
OP here, I grew up in Palo Alto and Went to JLS, Gunn High. I saw my parent's shitbox go from 600k to 2.5 million in real time.
Ok, so then just the second part is true: you fundamentally do not understand the unique mix of economic conditions that have resulted in what it is today.
Anonymous
07/25/2019 14:01
Subject: Re:What is stopping NoVA from reaching SV level prices?
Anonymous wrote:
We aren’t surrounded by water.
neither is San Jose
San Jose is locked in by the mountains and foothills to the east . There is only one highway going south east. The commute down into Almaden (which is in SJ) is unbearable now because there are not many routes. Getting to Morgan Hill or Gilroy is 50X worse. To the north is Sunnyvale -even more expensive and Fremont just as expensive if not more now as its one of the few places where you might be able to stand to commute to SV or East Bay. To the west is Los Gatos, Saratoga and Cupertino also just as expensive.
The entire area south of PA, Los Altos, Cupertino, Lost Gatos etc are the mountains and the reservoir. You are either living off the grid in a mountain cabin with no heat or all the way down into Santa Cruz. People do this but there is only one highway to get back and forth so traffic is a nightmare.
Anonymous
07/25/2019 13:52
Subject: Re:What is stopping NoVA from reaching SV level prices?
Anonymous wrote:Anybody who asks this question hasn't lived in SV and fundamentally doesn't understand the unique mix of economic conditions that have resulted in what it is today. No city is even a close 2nd.
OP here, I grew up in Palo Alto and Went to JLS, Gunn High. I saw my parent's shitbox go from 600k to 2.5 million in real time.
Anonymous
07/25/2019 13:44
Subject: Re:What is stopping NoVA from reaching SV level prices?
NoVA is nowhere near SV level prices. Its never going to reach those levels.
1. Geography- SV's geography makes expansion next to impossible -bay, mountains and areas that structurally or environmentally can't be built up enclose a small area. There are few roads in and out of SV so communities further out involve multi hour commutes. Public transportation is limited to BART or Caltrain. NoVA can expand out has better highway access in multiple directions than SV.
2. Rents are outrageous. Inventories for rentals is so low that people are paying more than they would on a 1M+ montage for rentals. There aren't many high rises and many restrictions on building high up unlike NoVA. NOVA and DC have tons of high rises.
3.Lower income and less expensive counties are nearby like PG and MoCo. The commutes to the cheaper areas are still way less than commute from say Gilroy (which now sells in the 1Ms) to SV.
4. Inventory turn over. In SV people age in place because the taxes freeze when you buy your house. They can't afford to move on a fixed income. The weather and one story houses make again in place more practical. Some people do cash out and move to Nevada or Arizona but lots just stay put. In NOVA and the surrounding areas retirees move out sooner.
1. Geography- SV's geography makes expansion next to impossible -bay, mountains and areas that structurally or environmentally can't be built up enclose a small area. There are few roads in and out of SV so communities further out involve multi hour commutes. Public transportation is limited to BART or Caltrain. NoVA can expand out has better highway access in multiple directions than SV.
2. Rents are outrageous. Inventories for rentals is so low that people are paying more than they would on a 1M+ montage for rentals. There aren't many high rises and many restrictions on building high up unlike NoVA. NOVA and DC have tons of high rises.
3.Lower income and less expensive counties are nearby like PG and MoCo. The commutes to the cheaper areas are still way less than commute from say Gilroy (which now sells in the 1Ms) to SV.
4. Inventory turn over. In SV people age in place because the taxes freeze when you buy your house. They can't afford to move on a fixed income. The weather and one story houses make again in place more practical. Some people do cash out and move to Nevada or Arizona but lots just stay put. In NOVA and the surrounding areas retirees move out sooner.
Anonymous
07/25/2019 13:42
Subject: Re:What is stopping NoVA from reaching SV level prices?
Anybody who asks this question hasn't lived in SV and fundamentally doesn't understand the unique mix of economic conditions that have resulted in what it is today. No city is even a close 2nd.
Anonymous
07/25/2019 13:41
Subject: What is stopping NoVA from reaching SV level prices?
Anonymous wrote:We don’t get foreign investors.
just because they aren't here today don't mean they always won't be
Anonymous wrote:We aren’t surrounded by water.
neither is San Jose
Anonymous wrote:Nowhere near the level of NIMBYism and property rights much stronger.
Are you blind?
Anonymous wrote:And tech companies aren’t huge here, just auxiliary.
Go take a look around dulles and downtown DC today
Anonymous
07/25/2019 13:36
Subject: What is stopping NoVA from reaching SV level prices?
So not going to happen.
We don’t get foreign investors. We aren’t surrounded by water. Nowhere near the level of NIMBYism and property rights much stronger.
And tech companies aren’t huge here, just auxiliary. No massive IPO or acquisitions which is lifeblood of wealthy in SV.
We don’t get foreign investors. We aren’t surrounded by water. Nowhere near the level of NIMBYism and property rights much stronger.
And tech companies aren’t huge here, just auxiliary. No massive IPO or acquisitions which is lifeblood of wealthy in SV.
Anonymous
07/25/2019 13:34
Subject: What is stopping NoVA from reaching SV level prices?
It already happened to Seattle with just Microsoft and Amazon. I would like to hear an argument to the contrary. This area is the home of the cloud, big Data. We have firms like Palantir which are the next facebook/google that are already primarily in this area.