Anonymous
11/08/2018 23:50
Subject: Re:2020 Senate Map
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:The Dems were able to pick up seats in deep red states like Kansas and Oklahoma. It’s all about picking the right candidate. Hopefully there are people vetting candidates now.
Congressional districts only represent a portion of a state, whereas Senators are statewide races so just because a congressional district may have elected a Dem does not really mean a whole lot for the state as a whole. Kind of like how California has red representatives, but it’s not like they’re going to elect a Republican senator.
And an open seat to replace a deeply unpopular Governor is a VERYdifferent situation than trying to knock off a 24 year incumbent with a (mostly) good reputation.
A bunch of red Governors lost. Last time I checked, those were statewide seats.
Anonymous
11/08/2018 23:45
Subject: Re:2020 Senate Map
From Harry Reid’s former CoS: “The 2020 Senate map for Dems is light years better than 2018 (hard to draw worse) but it's no cakewalk: CO, AZ, IA, NC, ME, KY, GA... pickup opportunities exist but are not exactly abundant. And we defend AL.”
Anonymous
11/08/2018 23:33
Subject: Re:2020 Senate Map
Anonymous wrote:The Dems were able to pick up seats in deep red states like Kansas and Oklahoma. It’s all about picking the right candidate. Hopefully there are people vetting candidates now.
Congressional districts only represent a portion of a state, whereas Senators are statewide races so just because a congressional district may have elected a Dem does not really mean a whole lot for the state as a whole. Kind of like how California has red representatives, but it’s not like they’re going to elect a Republican senator.
And an open seat to replace a deeply unpopular Governor is a VERYdifferent situation than trying to knock off a 24 year incumbent with a (mostly) good reputation.
Anonymous
11/08/2018 23:13
Subject: Re:2020 Senate Map
The Dems were able to pick up seats in deep red states like Kansas and Oklahoma. It’s all about picking the right candidate. Hopefully there are people vetting candidates now.
Anonymous
11/08/2018 23:11
Subject: 2020 Senate Map
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Colorado - Dems should win
Maine - Collins is toast
Iowa - trump won by only 5 last time, and now he is 15 underwater
NC - same as Iowa, worse even for Rs
Arizona - how’s that working for Rs this year?
Georgia - this election is shaky even with Kemp’s thumb on the scale
Texas - return of Beto?
Louisiana - Mitch Landrieu is a force
Montana - didn’t Tester just win there?
Kentucky - Dems will throw $100 million into defeating McConnell
Kansas - didn’t Kobach just lose there?
Seems like a pretty solid map to me. Can’t imagine republicans feel safe in any of those states.
You should take a political science class.
Snarky no-substance comments come cheap. Put your money where your mouth is.
Anonymous
11/08/2018 23:09
Subject: 2020 Senate Map
Whoops this one is much better - the first list doesn’t have New Hampshire for some reason.
Anonymous
11/08/2018 23:02
Subject: Re:2020 Senate Map
Here’s who’s up for grabs:
Anonymous
11/08/2018 22:36
Subject: 2020 Senate Map
Anonymous wrote:Colorado - Dems should win
Maine - Collins is toast
Iowa - trump won by only 5 last time, and now he is 15 underwater
NC - same as Iowa, worse even for Rs
Arizona - how’s that working for Rs this year?
Georgia - this election is shaky even with Kemp’s thumb on the scale
Texas - return of Beto?
Louisiana - Mitch Landrieu is a force
Montana - didn’t Tester just win there?
Kentucky - Dems will throw $100 million into defeating McConnell
Kansas - didn’t Kobach just lose there?
Seems like a pretty solid map to me. Can’t imagine republicans feel safe in any of those states.
You should take a political science class.
Anonymous
11/08/2018 22:25
Subject: 2020 Senate Map
Here’s another one:
GOP Targets - Jones (Alabama)
GOP Hopefuls - Peters (Michigan), Smith (Minnesota)
Dem Targets - OPEN Arizona, Gardner (Colorado), Collins (Maine)
Dem Hopefuls - Iowa (Ernst), Georgia (Perdue), North Carolina (Tillis)
GOP Targets - Jones (Alabama)
GOP Hopefuls - Peters (Michigan), Smith (Minnesota)
Dem Targets - OPEN Arizona, Gardner (Colorado), Collins (Maine)
Dem Hopefuls - Iowa (Ernst), Georgia (Perdue), North Carolina (Tillis)
Anonymous
11/08/2018 22:21
Subject: Re:2020 Senate Map
Maine could be a pickup. It’s trending blue quickly and people are getting tired of Collins.
Anonymous
11/08/2018 22:20
Subject: 2020 Senate Map
Already done:
Anonymous
11/08/2018 22:18
Subject: 2020 Senate Map
Anonymous wrote:Colorado - Dems should win
Maine - Collins is toast
Iowa - trump won by only 5 last time, and now he is 15 underwater
NC - same as Iowa, worse even for Rs
Arizona - how’s that working for Rs this year?
Georgia - this election is shaky even with Kemp’s thumb on the scale
Texas - return of Beto?
Louisiana - Mitch Landrieu is a force
Montana - didn’t Tester just win there?
Kentucky - Dems will throw $100 million into defeating McConnell
Kansas - didn’t Kobach just lose there?
Seems like a pretty solid map to me. Can’t imagine republicans feel safe in any of those states.
Who could take on Mitch McConnell? Would love to see the end of him.
Anonymous
11/08/2018 22:17
Subject: 2020 Senate Map
Colorado - Dems should win
Maine - Collins is toast
Iowa - trump won by only 5 last time, and now he is 15 underwater
NC - same as Iowa, worse even for Rs
Arizona - how’s that working for Rs this year?
Georgia - this election is shaky even with Kemp’s thumb on the scale
Texas - return of Beto?
Louisiana - Mitch Landrieu is a force
Montana - didn’t Tester just win there?
Kentucky - Dems will throw $100 million into defeating McConnell
Kansas - didn’t Kobach just lose there?
Seems like a pretty solid map to me. Can’t imagine republicans feel safe in any of those states.
Maine - Collins is toast
Iowa - trump won by only 5 last time, and now he is 15 underwater
NC - same as Iowa, worse even for Rs
Arizona - how’s that working for Rs this year?
Georgia - this election is shaky even with Kemp’s thumb on the scale
Texas - return of Beto?
Louisiana - Mitch Landrieu is a force
Montana - didn’t Tester just win there?
Kentucky - Dems will throw $100 million into defeating McConnell
Kansas - didn’t Kobach just lose there?
Seems like a pretty solid map to me. Can’t imagine republicans feel safe in any of those states.
Anonymous
11/08/2018 22:15
Subject: 2020 Senate Map
Anonymous wrote:Thoughts? I'm not seeing the Dems take the Senate until 2022. Yes, the Republicans will have to defend 22 seats vs. the Democrats 12, but they're mainly in safe R states a la NE, WY, AR, etc. And Doug Jones is almost sure to lose his seat so long as Alabama doesn't nominate a pedophile again.
Colorado seems like the obvious pickup. Maine...maybe. North Carolina and Iowa are possible. Georgia and Arizona would be long shots.
Only with suppression. AZ is about to elect a democrat and GA is purple without suppression and there will be huge voter registration efforts over the next two years.
Anonymous
11/08/2018 21:52
Subject: 2020 Senate Map
Thoughts? I'm not seeing the Dems take the Senate until 2022. Yes, the Republicans will have to defend 22 seats vs. the Democrats 12, but they're mainly in safe R states a la NE, WY, AR, etc. And Doug Jones is almost sure to lose his seat so long as Alabama doesn't nominate a pedophile again.
Colorado seems like the obvious pickup. Maine...maybe. North Carolina and Iowa are possible. Georgia and Arizona would be long shots.
Colorado seems like the obvious pickup. Maine...maybe. North Carolina and Iowa are possible. Georgia and Arizona would be long shots.