I've been reading this forum a while, and what I've noticed is that the "season" starts with questions like the one posted by the OP eg something along the lines of "Harvard or Yale?" As the year progresses and the deferrals come in, it has morphed into "What does your kid do if they don't get in anywhere?"
One of the most interesting articles I read was about how UPenn reads its applications, looking at all apps from a particular high school side by side.
https://www.insidehighered.com/admissions/article/2017/06/12/some-colleges-adopt-new-committee-based-system-doing-first-review That means your son will be compared with all his classmates who might have URM status, or be a nationally ranked water polo player, or be a science fair super star, or has a relative who is a major donor/VIP, or who writes better essays than your kid or is a double legacy or is a prodigy......
What my suggestion would be is to apply where he wants regarding elite schools, but at the same time apply early action to other match public universities/international universities that will get back to him BEFORE the end of December regular decision deadlines. That way, hopefully he has an acceptance before the end of December, letting him know he is going somewhere. Note, that UVA didn't send out EA acceptances until later in January.
If you go onto College Confidential, you can get a reality check by reading the amazing stats of the kids who were rejected or deferred by IVy leageue schools.