Anonymous wrote:All I know is people were making similar predictions of bubbles four or five years ago in this forum. Had they just bought a house at that time, they'd have equity now. Muttering "it's a bubble" over and over and you might eventually be right. But the opportunity cost of doing so is high. You have to live somewhere.

Yep, even if it is a true bubble, “the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent”.

All I know is people were making similar predictions of bubbles four or five years ago in this forum. Had they just bought a house at that time, they'd have equity now. Muttering "it's a bubble" over and over and you might eventually be right. But the opportunity cost of doing so is high. You have to live somewhere.

Anonymous wrote:^^ I'd be interested to compare SF with DC. Or even DC with a city like Dallas.

They analysis I linked to relies upon Moody Analytics.

About this data. Data for median housing prices, median family incomes, and the Affordability Indices for DC and the US are from Moody’s Analytics. Quarterly data for the period from the first quarter of 1991 to the last quarter of 2016 have been used to calculate 12-month moving average values for the years 1991 to 2016. Similarly, quarterly data on the interest rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages has been used to calculate 12-month average rates. All index numbers have been calculated using the 12-month average value for the 4th quarter of 1991 as the base value of 100. The National Association of Realtors calculates the Affordability Index for the US and regions of the country. The values of the index for DC were calculated by Moody’s Analytics.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yeah and I'm waiting for this magical bubble to burst. LOL All of you seem so certain. Get real.

Hence the point of my post. It’s people like you that seem so certain that there isn’t a bubble or the market isn’t overheated.

So smug and all knowing.

Here is something we do know... homes in DC were dramatically undervalued for a long time compared to HHI.

This is only my opinion, but I think the DC market was simply catching up. Now home prices are more in line with salaries and other cities with similar salaries.

This is still true. DC is relatively MUCH cheaper than pretty much any other major 1st world capitol city in the world. Paris, NYC, London, Tokyo, Toronto, Sydney, Zurich, Vienna, Rome, Moscow - all are significantly more expensive than DC in terms of housing purchases when compared to average salaries.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yeah and I'm waiting for this magical bubble to burst. LOL All of you seem so certain. Get real.

Hence the point of my post. It’s people like you that seem so certain that there isn’t a bubble or the market isn’t overheated.

So smug and all knowing.

Your analysis is based on ZERO data. Instead, it is based on some sort of emotional vendetta to enact revenge against the "smug" DC dwellers. Needless to say, you're a broken person.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yeah and I'm waiting for this magical bubble to burst. LOL All of you seem so certain. Get real.

Hence the point of my post. It’s people like you that seem so certain that there isn’t a bubble or the market isn’t overheated.

So smug and all knowing.

Here is something we do know... homes in DC were dramatically undervalued for a long time compared to HHI.

This is only my opinion, but I think the DC market was simply catching up. Now home prices are more in line with salaries and other cities with similar salaries.

^^ I'd be interested to compare SF with DC. Or even DC with a city like Dallas.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yeah and I'm waiting for this magical bubble to burst. LOL All of you seem so certain. Get real.

Hence the point of my post. It’s people like you that seem so certain that there isn’t a bubble or the market isn’t overheated.

So smug and all knowing.

Could be a bubble or maybe not. I'm not moving from my small house a mile from my office unless I win the lottery or double my salary. Same sentiment from at least twenty fri new.

This is us (Millennials who just bought our first house). We are 1.5 miles from our offices in downtown DC. We ain't going anywhere and our neighborhood is in the midst of a flurry of housing development. We do not want a commute. They aren't building any more land in our SFH neighborhood and the zoning doesn't allow big apartment buildings in our immediate blocks.

Short of a nuclear weapon detonating in DC, I don't see how there is a massive downturn (separate from a larger nationwide downturn). The GOP has zero desire to military spending - this is what really drives the DC economy. They will cut entitlements first, which has bigger reverberations throughout the rest of the country than here.

Here is more data on the DC housing market. The data show we have re-inflated, but much more gradually than in the 2006-2008 period. Prices today are more in line with the previous 30 years' trend.
https://districtmeasured.com/2017/05/30/dcs-median-home-price-3-times-more-than-median-family-income-in-1991-is-now-5-times-more/

Do you have this data for another city, like SF?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yeah and I'm waiting for this magical bubble to burst. LOL All of you seem so certain. Get real.

Hence the point of my post. It’s people like you that seem so certain that there isn’t a bubble or the market isn’t overheated.

So smug and all knowing.

Could be a bubble or maybe not. I'm not moving from my small house a mile from my office unless I win the lottery or double my salary. Same sentiment from at least twenty fri new.

This is us (Millennials who just bought our first house). We are 1.5 miles from our offices in downtown DC. We ain't going anywhere and our neighborhood is in the midst of a flurry of housing development. We do not want a commute. They aren't building any more land in our SFH neighborhood and the zoning doesn't allow big apartment buildings in our immediate blocks.

Short of a nuclear weapon detonating in DC, I don't see how there is a massive downturn (separate from a larger nationwide downturn). The GOP has zero desire to military spending - this is what really drives the DC economy. They will cut entitlements first, which has bigger reverberations throughout the rest of the country than here.

Here is more data on the DC housing market. The data show we have re-inflated, but much more gradually than in the 2006-2008 period. Prices today are more in line with the previous 30 years' trend.
https://districtmeasured.com/2017/05/30/dcs-median-home-price-3-times-more-than-median-family-income-in-1991-is-now-5-times-more/

Unless the government and the very wealthy government contractors somehow disappear (and Trump and the Republicans have shown no interest in cutting discretionary government spending and want to boost defense spending) I don't see any bubble to burst.

I could definitely see prices flattening and staying flat between rising interest rates and the presumed loss of mortgage interest deduction (and local taxes) which will impact people locally.

But the inflated prices are in close in areas and people are willing to pay a premium to have shorter commutes/live in walkable neighborhoods and I don't see that changing unless this area somehow builds a bunch of new roads or transit and I don't see either happening.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yeah and I'm waiting for this magical bubble to burst. LOL All of you seem so certain. Get real.

Hence the point of my post. It’s people like you that seem so certain that there isn’t a bubble or the market isn’t overheated.

So smug and all knowing.

Could be a bubble or maybe not. I'm not moving from my small house a mile from my office unless I win the lottery or double my salary. Same sentiment from at least twenty fri new.

They did increase very quickly and dramatically. People don't buy starter homes in the area and then move as their salaries increase. At least not anyone we know in the last 10 years. If interest rates increase, it's even harder to buy a more expensive property. My neighbors are all remodelig their small close in homes instead of moving further out to bigger and newer houses.

Anonymous wrote:Yeah and I'm waiting for this magical bubble to burst. LOL All of you seem so certain. Get real.

Hence the point of my post. It’s people like you that seem so certain that there isn’t a bubble or the market isn’t overheated.

So smug and all knowing.

Yeah and I'm waiting for this magical bubble to burst. LOL All of you seem so certain. Get real.

I've read countless posts that say something like: "The DC area is growing in population rapidly. There's not enough near in residential property being built, so values will continue to rise unfettered. People don't want to live in suburbs anymore, and DC will resemble San Francisco, London, Hong Kong, Vancouver, etc. in the next 10-20 years. Buy now or you'll never be able to afford to live here."

There seems to be so much certainty on the part of so many of you, that this is only the beginning of a sustained period of growth and gentrification in DC. I don't see how this is a reality, when many metro areas around rest the country are seeing significantly higher growth rates due to a lower cost of living and lower costs to do business. Additionally, population inflow has slowed in the DC region, and slowed in DC proper as well. High paying salaries are here in concentration, but this is not unique to DC, and high paying jobs have ALWAYS been here.

As mortgage interest rates go up and taxes increase, homes will increasingly become more expensive. If interest rate reach 5% next year, those that locked in at 3.25% would likely struggle to comfortably afford their own homes today, especially when you factor in home value appreciation.

It seems like housing prices increased too quickly and too dramatically.

Does anyone share similar concerns?