Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I bet the failing DCPS high schools will still be empty

Bigly

Turn one of 'em into a test-in magnet school with an IB track and a bunch of APs, and it wouldn't be. Walls turns away hundreds of applicants every year who would love to have another similar option, for example. DCPS just won't do it.

Anonymous wrote:I bet the failing DCPS high schools will still be empty

Bigly

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There are new charters applying every year. And DCPS can always redistrict. I am not worried.

+1.

DCPS tried to redistrict in 2014, ended up getting caught up in the politics, moved a few lines and called it a day without solving anything. Before that, the last time they redistricted was in 1974. So yes, DCPS could always redistrict. But they just can't.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There are new charters applying every year. And DCPS can always redistrict. I am not worried.

Assuming you're joking, it's a morbidly funny joke. I think you mean that the same hopeful sentiments were expressed upwards of 14 years ago, but since then DCPS's "decent" elementary schools have been allowed to near-explode with overcrowding, and the only middle school that's any good (Deal) is barely functioning with class sizes well above 30. Parents still flee middle schools in droves, as they have always done in DC. There is no reason to think that the next 5-10 years will be any different. DC refuses to create safe spaces for academically competent students -- just throw a pencil at 'em and make excuses for why they all bail is their m.o.

That's okay with this Dep Mayor and State Superintendent. They've bought into the fact that public schools serve that working class and poor. Affluent families in public schools are an anomaly in DC and nationally.

Anonymous wrote:There are new charters applying every year. And DCPS can always redistrict. I am not worried.

Assuming you're joking, it's a morbidly funny joke. I think you mean that the same hopeful sentiments were expressed upwards of 14 years ago, but since then DCPS's "decent" elementary schools have been allowed to near-explode with overcrowding, and the only middle school that's any good (Deal) is barely functioning with class sizes well above 30. Parents still flee middle schools in droves, as they have always done in DC. There is no reason to think that the next 5-10 years will be any different. DC refuses to create safe spaces for academically competent students -- just throw a pencil at 'em and make excuses for why they all bail is their m.o.

Anonymous wrote:There are new charters applying every year. And DCPS can always redistrict. I am not worried.

+1.

Someone had the ward 3 projections in another thread. There is tremendous growth all across DC, including w3. It would be criminal to give away the old hardy school for free. There is nowhere else in w3 to put a school.

There are new charters applying every year. And DCPS can always redistrict. I am not worried.

Nothing in this says what the projected SES or HHi for these students will be. The last run at these projections about 8 months ago showed equal numbers of high and low SES families, with the most growth in Wards 1, 7 and 8.

The only way these projections will be realized is if somehow DCPS decides to reverse course and begin to give a darn about nurturing the scholarship of at-grade-level students. Will never happen, imo.

Most of the excess capacity isn't at schools people woulf want to go to. But clearly this will benefit the schools on the tipping point.

Anonymous wrote:I don't know how you get that there will be crowding. There are 8K excess seats.

The schools these new families will be clamoring for are already bursting at the seams.

I bet the failing DCPS high schools will still be empty

I don't know how you get that there will be crowding. There are 8K excess seats.

So there are currently about 80k students ages 3-17 in DCPS and Charters.

In doing an analysis to assess demand for seats (vs current capacity) the Office of Planning created the following projections of number of students (note figures exclude the approx. 17% of DC kids who attend privates) are going to skyrocket.

Here are the mid-range numbers for the next five years:
2016 80,039
2017 84,076
2018 88,172
2019 92,310
2020 96,574
2021 100,879

Looks like the good news is that between the two sectors there are 108k seats of capacity. Going to bet they don't reflect schools generally pursued by DCUM'ers.

Would love to see a breakdown by age-range to see. Maybe some digging would turn up those numbers on dme.dc.gov.
–How much is new families entering school system for the first time?
–How much are students staying for MS or HS whose families would have left a decade ago? (In which case, what is the Office of Planning smoking if they believe that families will stay with the current MS offerings?).

Probably many many other factors at work as well.

Source, Factsheet: https://dme.dc.gov/node/1198445